CFB Week 11 picks ATS + O/U

I went 4–5–2 last week to bring my overall record to 69–56 on the year. Big time week 11 slate including the potential regular season game of the year between Alabama and LSU, but I’m staying away from that battle. Check out what my favorite picks are below!
UCF @ Tulsa U 69.5: I got burned with a UCF under with a controversial late touchdown and a safety with less than two minutes to go with the winner already decided. Trying again as S&P+ has been much lower on the totals in the Knights games than the market has been. Tulsa has gotten into a couple shootouts with SMU and Memphis but those are the only two games that have gone over this listed total, with lots of their games not even approaching 70 total points.
Baylor -2.5 @ TCU: Lots of times trends show us that unbeaten teams are overvalued late in the season because they are inflated by the public due to their good pure record. However when unbeaten teams are less than a field goal favorite to an un-ranked foe after week 10 the unbeaten team is 7–2 ATS in the last nine times. This seems to me like vegas is over accounting for the strength of the un-ranked team, and I find that to be the case in this situation as well.
Maryland +43.5 @ Ohio State: This pick is going to lose I’m 100% confident of it, but I can’t ignore getting 43 points with a BIG 10 team not named Rutgers or Northwestern in a conference game. This line is silly, and in my opinion a little too silly to pass up on.
Penn State -6.5 @ Minnesota: The Golden Gophers deserve credit for taking care of business in BIG 10 play. But after beating South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern by 13 total points I don’t see any chance this team is top 10 in the country. Minnesota has also played against a backup quarterback for over a half in like seven of their last eight games, so I’ll take some major passing defense regression coming here.
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern: I have zero faith in Northwestern doing anything positive offensively, so why not take a team getting almost a field goal that is at least semi competent. Purdue might be banged up but I have way more faith in Jeff Brohm drawing up some nice plays for his offense to score compared to the Northwestern offense.
UTSA @ Old Dominion O 43: UTSA and Old Dominion have had 2 of 17 games this season not reach 40 total points this season. That shows me that at worst there should probably be a chance at the end of the game where one weird play could get us the win. I hardly ever like my chances taking overs in games with totals in the low 40’s but this one seems to make a lot of sense and S&P+ agrees, with a projected total 51.
South Alabama @ Texas State -7.5: South Alabama is really, really bad. I know Texas State has been a disappointment, but ever game the Jags have played against an FBS opponent they’ve lost by 13 or more points. It’s tough taking Texas State as over a touchdown favorite because they haven’t beaten an FBS team by over a field goal this season. Somethings gotta give and I expect it to be Texas State getting a comfortable victory for the first time all season.
Kansas State +7 @ Texas: What is this line??? I figured that with Kansas State being ranked and Texas being actually bad they wouldn’t be more than a field goal favorite in this spot but boy was I wrong. I guess the name brand of Texas and their inflated preseason ranking are still taking way too much stock in their power ranking.
Washington State -7.5 @ Cal: Cal was a very fraudulent unbeaten and top 20 team early in the year, but even I didn’t see them falling off this hard. Cal has scored 41 total points in four games after beating Ole Miss 28–20. Washington State almost beat a top 10 team on the road the last time they stepped on the field, I see them having little trouble taking care of Cal.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma U 66.5: The biggest difference from this Oklahoma team and the ones from previous years is their defense. Besides a very poor showing against Kansas State in a loss, they have been much improved from past Oklahoma defenses. Iowa State also has a fairly stingy defense and when they play top flight competition, they usually aren’t able to put up a ton of points on the scoreboard. The Cyclones have only gone over 30 points against TCU, West Virginia, and Texas Tech this season.
As always good luck on your picks, if you have any questions about any game not picked in this article feel free to tweet me @ mikerothou and I’ll be sure to answer any questions you may have about the slate this week.
