How will SegWit Affect the Price of Bitcoin ?

Segregated witness is a proposed soft fork upgrade to the Bitcoin code, a clever hack that increases the Bitcoin block size capacity. The current block size is 1MB, SegWit, on paper bumps this up to 4MB, but only 2.1 MB is possible in practice. It requires a 95% consensus by mining nodes to activate

Unfortunately, like most things in Bitcoin, it has quickly turned political, resurfacing the bitterness from 2015’s block size debate. Led by a vocal Roger Ver, proponents of a hard fork increase in block capacity are coming out of the woodwork. They want an immediate block size increase so everyone can pay for their coffee with Bitcoin with no fees. Unless it is done simultaneously with a hard fork, they threaten to block the SegWit soft fork activation threshold.

Ethereum t̶w̶o̶ zero days without fork.

This sentiment is bad for Bitcoin markets and price. Bearish from an analyst point of view. With Bitcoin, there is $11 billion worth of assets on the line. And a reputation too. As we’ve learnt from Ethereum, hard fork dramas are messy.

I see either of two outcomes:

1. Deadlock ensues from this debate, 95% threshold fails and price begins to fall back down. Back down to $200 lows (as in chart above)
2. SegWit gets 95% threshold consensus with no bumps and we all get along fine. Hard forkers retreat. We all live happily ever after. (*i doubt this will happen)

Here is what I think will happen.

Price is already on a trend up to $850. Price will continue going up on its current upward momentum. It could go higher to $1163, maybe $1200. It’s the sell zone (in chart above).

By that time, the Segwit vs Hard forker’s drama will be at its peak and force a sell off. Traders panic sell and price goes down, just like Mike Hearn’s rage quit last year, that caused a 15% overnight drop in price, only compounded.

Bitcoin will go through a dark test of mettle. This will be another great opportunity to pick up some coins at a discount.

Just my 2 cents.