Prior probability analysis and magic fairy dust.
Serah Eley

Mine comes from decades of service in tbe Army. I have seen soldiers sucessfully claim to be from a minority race to take advantage of equal opportunity promotion programs. I knew an Air Force officer who successfuly claimed he was hispanic because his mother was from Spain. This got him into the Air Force Academy to help fill their hispanic goal. While marital status was masked from promotion boards, official photos were part of the promotion package. These photos were taken showing the left side of thr soldier. Single soldiers would wear wedding bands knowing that promotion boards tended to preferred married soldiers. Religious preference was known to promotion boards as well. Some soldiers picked a main line religion given promotion board members likely had similar religious preference. There were rumors that Masons displayed a very subtle Masonic hand gester in their official photo to curry favor from Masons on the promotion board.

I cannot wait for the foodfight to start when a soldier claims to be transgender but is denied such status because they do not which to undergo transition treatment.

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