Battlegrounds for 2024: Rural America

My Rural America Take:

In 2008 and 2012, Democrats were a major force in Rural America. Prior to 2010, the party held nearly 260 House seats and 60 U.S. Senate seats. The successes of the 2006 midterms and the 2008 Obama-Biden coattails came in large part from the DNC’s outreach to rural areas. In fact, President Obama once secured the support of 43% of rural voters in 200, and a slightly smaller share of that in 2012-higher marks in recent times for Democratic Party rural support.

That was then. This is now. The political landscape has changed in front of our very eyes. Although the Democratic Party was never the dominant party in Rural America (look no further than the wipeout in the 2010 and 2014 midterms), they were always a force to be reckoned with. Now, the Party has seen a massive erosion in both rural support, outreach, and engagement. In 2016, Trump took nearly two-thirds of the rural vote.

States and congressional districts Democrats and so-called “Prairie Populists” once represented are now rock-ribbed Republican areas (the Dakotas and Montana for example). And the states Democrats once won or even were competitive in — like Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, etc. — have become further out of reach electorally. Compounding the situation, the DNC has not set up and supported rural outreach efforts as extensively as they did pre-Trump to offset these losses.

But make no mistake about it: rural voters still have significant voting power. Only a year after Biden held on to 46% of Virginia’s rural vote, the Commonwealth elected Republican Glenn Youngkin. Why? Because the Democratic challenger to Youngkin only retained a third of the rural vote if that. Even with Georgia’s changing demographics, GOP rural strength drastically shrinks the window for a clear Democratic victory in key contests and allows more quality Republican candidates (like incumbent Governor Brian Kemp) to run up the margins.

Democrats cannot ignore rural voters. They are key players in battleground states and bellwether races. Sure, they have great influence in the Electoral College and the Senate. Yet the House too has a vast proportion of congressional districts that contain notable, high concentrations of rural voters.

Democrats need to have a path to victory in 2024 that will especially rely on rural voters to hold the Senate under the current map, and flip a House led de jure by McCarthy and Scalise, but de facto by Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Lauren Boebert.

Can it actually be done? Yes. Democrats have a real record to tout in Build Back Better and the progress made even this year despite GOP obstruction and chaos. They have the contrast of their governing record with a Republican Party that can’t even elect a Speaker for more than 9 months, and has failed to take action in issues they promised to campaign on. In exchange for addressing Americans’ real economic pains, Republicans have decided to stake their reputations on impeachments, investigations, government shutdowns, and debt defaults. Unlike Republicans, Democrats have a vision to offer the American people. Unlike Republicans, Democrats can confidently repudiate the failed economic, political, and social policies of Reagan, Bush, and Trump. Policies that have decimated rural and working-class communities across the country(and especially in the Industrial Midwest).

They can call for a Progressive Promise for a More Perfect Union, and a return to the values of FDR, Truman, JFK, and LBJ. They can continue in the Democratic Party tradition of looking out for working families and the common man instead of corporate special interests, the very well-off, and the powerful.

Democrats need to speak to these type of issues as they seek to win back rural voters, rebuild the traditional Midwestern blue-collar base, regain white working class (and indeed working class in general) party support, and stem the newer bleeding of non-white voters during recent cycles — especially in rural areas.

Democrats have the unique opportunity message beyond conspiracy theories and culture wars that have no real impact on the lives of working families, and can make a case for a truly pro-Rural America and working/middle class agenda.

The coalition between laborers and farmers is one example. It’s an example that many in Midwestern rural communities can relate to, and the Biden Administration has a real story to tell here. Biden’s leadership on union issues, consumer protection, small business opportunities, and rural economic development is unquestionable, if a little under-branded. Legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the American Rescue Plan, the CHIPS Act, the PACT Act, and postal reform bills will have tangible benefits for Rural America.

But beyond the message and the track record, Democrats need to put in the campaign investments. This is something former DNC Chair and Vermont Governor Howard Dean understood throughout his long career of grassroots activism, organizing, and campaigning. His 50-State Strategy used to immense effect in 2006 & 2008 put great emphasis on taking no voters for granted. We need similar strategies for 2024. Going into small towns and local counties add up in a way that it did for Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Minnesota. It is about voters being seen and heard, as was the case throughout Middle America and “Flyover Country” with Trump in 2016 and even 2020.

Both of these issues are ones that a prominent party rural strategist covered in a recent article of his. Here is a link for his newest column.

As you can see, it might not be a bad idea for the DNC to hire special advisors for specific electorates who have been on-the-ground for 2024. Think Chuck Rocha with Hispanics & Latino voters, Atima Omara with African American voters, Amit Jani with Asian American voters, Matt Barron with rural voters, and so on.

These are the types of approaches that can and will allow the 2024 Biden-Harris campaign to expand the party coalition and continue to Build Back Better. For every community and every person in this country. Especially in Rural America, which faces a wide range of challenges.

Additionally, there are rural voters who would support Democrats over Republicans in a heartbeat if we engaged with them and continue to do so. There are many rural communities of color throughout the South and the Mountain West(like the Black Belt, Rio Grande Valley, and others). And many young voters are still active in these areas too.

Democrats cannot take Rural America for granted. In fact, like many constituencies, they can win and regain considerable support in these areas from Republicans with their track record and on-point messaging. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris need to look out and advocate for Rural America, and other working class and distressed communities.

In Other News(Protests in Providence, RI 50 Westminster St. October 18, 2023 5:00–7:00 PM, Southern Redistricting Battles, Etc.):

On Wednesday October 18, US Commerce Secretary-and former Rhode Island Governor-Gina Raimondo will returning to her home state for a local campaign event. Unlike most people who would be welcomed back with open arms to their home states, she will return with protests in the Downtown Providence vicinity(fun fact: Gina Raimondo was THEmost unpopular Governor in the entire country-at least in 2019).

But more than any national or even local politics at play, Raimondo will come to the Capital City with Rhode Islanders that day calling for a congressional investigative commission(similar to the 2002–03 Whitey Bulger probe) and federal action by appropriate Cabinet departments and independent agencies to address the issues that remain in Rhode Island, but have too since traveled with Washington DC as the new primary destination.

Rhode Islanders will make the case that the Congress and the federal government as a whole needs to have an eye on the US Commerce Secretary now and to dive deeper into her track record in RI. The Wednesday protesters will be outlining the disturbing pattern of conduct and behavior that defines Raimondo’s time as a public servant from conflicts of interest in state business and affairs and lapses(or even obstruction) in government transparency, to ethical scandals in her offices and administrations, and notorious administrative dysfunction, incompetence, mismanagement, abuse, and neglect-some that violate state statutes and perhaps even federal laws, and all while covering any potential political damage for higher office ambitions.

We feel it is important for the country to be aware of Gina Raimondo’s career from Smith Hill to Capitol Hill. A career of practically stealing money from state workers and workers with the allegations that she personally and financially profited from those efforts. A career of taking advantage, manipulating, and exploiting the broken systems and crises in our state for her own personal and political ambitions(especially the poor, children, and the disabled). A career of violating all kinds of precedents, norms, and traditions respecting our government institutions and the rule of law. A career of deceiving the public of the existence and extent of her misdeeds and mistakes. And a career of selling out the common good of this country for campaign contributions and personal favors from political allies(from mishandling taxpayer dollars and impeding administrative duties, to concealing and conspiring to cover up negative articles, reports, and other affairs not disclosed to the public).

Not to mention seeking retribution on her political adversaries and turning her back on allies and former allies. That is the Gina Raimondo we know who has governed in bad faith, and has routinely tried to cover up politically scandalous, unethical, and criminal conduct in Rhode Island-and for all we know, might be doing the very same in Washington DC.

We hope people will come and support these efforts. But if you can’t, you can still help out. You can spread the word. Share the event/post on social media. Text and message friends. Call family to join in. Whatever you can do best to expose this politician for what she really is-certainly not as VP material that is being promoted by Raimondo’s many media allies.

And to my party. I realize this is a difficult position to be in. But you must take a stand for the rule of law and for the truth-two things Ms. Raimondo has an incapacity to deal with or even comprehend. A friend of mind borrowed this saying. A common, but important one: “The truth shall set you free.”

Also, besides the renewed ethics scrutiny in time for NC’s redistricting process, the SCOTUS seems to want to justify a racially gerrymandered district in SC where black neighborhoods in Charleston were coincidentally left out while more distant, whiter small towns were included. For a state with a fourth of its population black, how there is not a racial gerrymander in SC is beyond essentially the entire public.

A bombshell 60 Minutes investigation on Ron DeSantis’s immigration stunt.

And again, give Salzillo’s Two Cents a follow if you can. He has the latest on the battle over Mt. Pleasant High School in a struggling school district under a state takeover(a failed takeover that started under Raimondo).

Much more to come on this. Stay tuned to this very issue.