A New Vietnam Era
Today marks 41 years since the fall of Saigon.
It’s known as “Liberation Day” or “Reunification Day” in Vietnam. To my mother and the rest of the South Vietnamese who fled their home in those final days, it’s known as “Black April.” April 30, 1975 also signifies the end of a conflict that ultimately claimed more than 58,000 American lives and millions of North and South Vietnamese.
As we remember a war that continues to define a generation for both the United States and Vietnam, hope emerges for a new “Vietnam era” between us.
I was encouraged during my most recent visit to the country in January. It coincided with the 12th National Party Congress, in which Communist Party leaders elect their powerful Central Committee and top party leaders to a new five-year term. The vast amounts of party propaganda, Ho Chi Minh posters, and hammer-and-sickle flags adorning nearly every lamppost, corner store, home and building up and down the country in celebration of the event was almost overwhelming.
But emerging beneath the red flags are vast skyscrapers, construction sites, cranes and high-end brands lining the streets of Ho Chi Minh City, Nha Trang, Da Nang and Hanoi. They tower alongside traditional street food vendors, beggars, dizzying motorbikes and smartphones. The push and pull of wealth and poverty are evident all around. But the vibrancy of the country is palpable.
Consider this: Vietnam’s economy this year is expected to grow at 6.7%, the second fastest rate in the world after India.
Its population now boasts 90 million people, nearly one-third the size of the United States.
Vietnam’s stock market in 2016 is expected to perform at its highest levels in 18 years, continuing to outperform Southeast Asia and the MSCI ALL Country World Index thanks to rising consumer demand and foreign investment.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership stands to increase Vietnam’s GDP by 11% or $36 billion over the next decade.
After decades of war, the “Doi Moi” economic reforms announced in 1986 set Vietnam on a path toward an increasingly open economy and growth. That per capita growth has averaged 5.5% since 1990. Most strikingly, the poverty rate in Vietnam has fallen from 50% in the early 1990s to 3% today. Beyond the numbers, the human impact of that scale of transformation is perhaps immeasurable.
Vietnam, as investor and entrepreneur Henry Nguyen dubs it, is the last of the East Asian tigers.
This impressive economic growth combined with a shifting foreign policy landscape driven by heightened tensions with China and a so-called American pivot to Asia signal opportunities for deepening relations with the United States.
In May, President Obama will make his first official visit to Vietnam.
His appearance follows the first U.S.-ASEAN summit held in California in February, convening the U.S., Vietnam and all 10 member states around issues increasingly important to the region, namely the Trans-Pacific Partnership and China.
Yet as our relationship progresses, barriers to diplomacy still remain.
A recent report by The World Bank and Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, entitled “Vietnam 2035,” highlights the immense opportunities and challenges, and six key transformations that will set Vietnam on a path to prosperity.
The sixth, and perhaps most important, pillar underscores the pressing need “to establish a modern rule of law state and a democratic society,” noting that “political and institutional reforms need to keep pace with Vietnam’s development.”
The National Party Congress and leadership transition this year resulted in the re-election of conservative Nguyen Phu Trong as General Secretary and Tran Dai Quang as Vietnam’s newest President. Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc replaces the pro-U.S. Prime Minster Nguyen Tan Dung who served since 2006. Their effectiveness in continuing to eliminate corruption, transform inefficient state-owned enterprises, improve human rights and strengthen market-oriented reforms is to be determined. (Headlines like these raise eyebrows).
But four decades after the end of a painful war, there is indeed cause for optimism for a rising Vietnam, and stronger relations between it and the United States.
According to a 2014 Pew Research Poll, three-quarters of Vietnamese (76%) expressed a favorable opinion of the U.S., including 89% of young people. Most encouraging, the poll also found that “Despite the Vietnamese government’s single-party socialist framework, an overwhelming majority of Vietnamese (95%) agreed that people are better off in a free market economy, even if some people are rich and some are poor.”
One of the most touching experiences during my trip to Vietnam was a moment where I suddenly found myself surrounded by a sea of elementary school students on a field-trip at a historic site in Hanoi. Dressed in their white shirts and blue shorts, they passed in single file to say “Hello!” and “Hi!” and give me a long series of high-fives. It was a heartening and hopeful peek into the future.
The wounds of war take a long time to heal. They’re still healing. I’ve heard my father’s stories reflecting back on his tour in Da Nang. My mother’s story of fleeing the country without her family when she was 21. Their memories are my memories, too.
But it’s time for a new Vietnam era among our two countries. One in which we remember and honor the past but look toward the future. A future that holds the powerful possibility of partnership, peace and prosperity between Vietnam and the United States.
