When will the American Empire collapse?

Every so often I come across an interesting piece on the cyclical nature of empires. How often they disappear. How frequently they show the same signs before falling. It’s all very fascinating. One naturally looks to the current political situation and finds parallels. You start to imagine that the American empire will collapse some day as well.

But there’s a problem, I often find myself wondering…When? WHEN will the U.S. empire slip into the pages of history? In this article, I’m going to total up various estimates and theories on when the empire will collapse to come up with a “best guess” date.

List of Estimates and Empire Collapse Theories:

• Sir John Glubb, The Fate of Empires — In this work, Glubb estimates that empires last about 250 years (10 generations). If we use 1776 for the start date of the United States empires, that would be 2026 as an estimated fall date.

• J. D. Unwin, Sex and Culture— Here, Unwin estimates that it takes about 75 years — 3 generations — after unrestricted sexual access for a culture to collapse or be conquered. If we use 1970 as the start of “free love”, that puts us in 2045.
• Currency Dominance — The dominate currency of the world goes through various transitions — on average the baton passed about every century for the last 600 years. This would spell trouble for the US Dollar in the next ~30 years. If we use the Bretton woods agreement as a start date, that would put collapse around 2050.

• Peter Turchin, Secular Cycles and Cliodynamics — puts the millennial generation as the upheaval generation, with major events taking place from 2010–2050.

• Meadows, et. al, The Limits to Growth — puts the start of the collapse of techno-industrial society around 2030.
• James Howard Kunstler— Puts “The Long Emergency” starting around the 2008 financial crisis and continuing for decades until society collapses back to are more sustainable way of life.
• John Michael Greer — Similar to Kunstler, we’re probably collapsing right now and it will take decades, even centuries, before the modern system is totally replaced. (Consider that the Roman Empire took hundreds of years to collapse and even lived on as the Byzantine Empire for a awhile).

• Gill, et. al, Topsoil and Civilization; Hamaker, Weaver, The Survival of Civilization; Lowdermilk, Walter C., Conquest of the Land Through Seven Thousand Years; Mitchell, Elyne, Soil And Civilization — Soil depletion and water access problems often crop up as empires fall, disrupting food production and collapsing the economy. We most likely only have 60 years of topsoil left at current depletion rates. We are also heavily stressing underground water supplies (National Geographic). Depleting these resources would send food prices soaring. This puts collapse in the 2050s.
• Richard Duncan, Olduvai Theory — this theory proposes that oil-based civilization will only last about 100 years due to the problems of exponential growth on a finite planet, among other issues, and is roughly in lime with Hubbard’s Peak Oil Theory. This puts economic collapse around 2030.
• William Strauss, Neil Howe, Strauss — Howe Generational Theory — Puts the “Fourth Turning” of generations — the moment of crisis — in the 2020s with the millennial generation.

• Dr. Joseph Tainter, Collapse of Complex Societies — All the ‘ingredients’ for a collapse of the empire are already in place. Cracks are already forming and collapse is baked into the cake. Could take decades though.
• Dmitry Orlov, Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects — Collapse of the United States is inevitable, for many of the same reasons the USSR collapsed — hard to tell exactly when but could happen with alarming speed, just like the soviet union.
• Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report — Due to diminishing returns on energy (EROEI), the US economy will experience a major downturn in the next 20 years.
• Chris Hamilton, Econimica — Demographic issues in developed countries will cause a massive debt crisis and economic turmoil in the next few decades.
• Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World — Energy, debt, and economic problems in developed countries are becoming a crisis. The system is already fragile enough for a major shock, which could begin at any time.
• Polish complexity theorists put the crash of the stock market and global economy around 2040.

Aggregation and Prediction

By crudely aggregating these views, I estimate that a serious crisis will hit “the system” around 2030.

By “the system”, I am referring to McWorld — the global techno capital U.S.-led order of today. The world of Bretton Woods and drive-through Arby’s restaurants. The world of NATO and Big Capital. Modern western civilization: post-cold war, neo-liberal federal reserve Bernankebux society.

The impact will likely be as bad as the fall of the Soviet Union, at least, and will impact the United States as well as Europe and allied nations.

But collapse can be such a slow process. Consider how long the British empire took to fall, and how difficult it is to point to one particular event that marked its decline. There’s no way to know exactly what event we are looking for.

For instance, one could argue that several events since the 2008 financial crisis have been showing the signs of the empire weakening. The economic recovery was largely fueled by financial manipulation and debt issuance — which just makes the system more unstable. The US is also starting to wind down wars in the middle east; withdrawing troops from the region. Strategically, the last decade of american overseas adventures have been failures — perhaps even longer.

My prediction is a long economic malaise punctuated by a set of destabilizing conflicts. The timeline could be much like the 1930s, with economic upheaval mixing into warfare. It would almost be poetic if the 100 year span from 1930 — 2030 started and ended the same way.

What to do

There is little that any one person can do, so my recommendation is not to obsess about it. After all, you can die in a car accident tomorrow — why obsess too much over a potential disaster a dozen years from now? That said, there certainly are steps you can take.

My best guess is that the retirement strategy of the last 60 years or so just isn’t going to last another 60. Still, huge historical changes don’t happen overnight, and there’s no sense in blowing all your money in Vegas “for tomorrow we die”. Likewise, building a doomsday bunker stocked with beans and bullets might be going too far in the opposite direction.

Take it easy. Invest in helping friends and gaining skills. Learn how to grow food and fix tools. Get some first aid training. Start a small hobby business on the side. Help a buddy pay off an unexpected bill — he’ll owe you one. Build up your family. (A strong community might be the best “retirement system” you’ll have.) Assume you will have to get by with less money in the future.

I don’t recommend being too invested in your career, your “busy stupid life” where you hustle to pay off that Mercedes. My best guess is: that career of yours isn’t going to pan out the way you’re hoping — unless you are already in the later stages, of course.

Take solace in the fact that empires collapse all the time, and this is just another cycle.

But maybe I, as well as all of these authors, are wrong. All of this is just some misguided pattern recognition. I hope so!

Regardless, good luck!