
Peter F. Drucker, and Feedback Analysis
We were all taught the scientific method. We were taught to have an aim, a hypothesis, a methodology, a result and a conclusion.
Drucker says: “Whenever you make a key decision or key action, write down what you expect will happen” in his book Managing Oneself.
The scientific method is about comparing results to expectations. If I do x I think y will occur. If I give this compliment I think it will make them feel better. If I lift weights it will give me bigger biceps.
Feedback is the difference between your intended outcome, and the one that occurred. They said this but meant that. If there is no difference, there is no feedback, and nothing learned but maybe a gain in confidence.
Feedback analysis is used for better performance. It leads to more informed decisions. Best Practices is feedback analysis in aggregate. It is the conclusion from experiments across an industry.
Hypothesis is what I think will happen, based on assumptions.
Conclusion is what actually happened based on results, and allows me to come to better assumptions and, in turn, a better hypothesis next time I run the experiment.
In your decision-making process follow Occam’s Razor:
“Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”
It means the simplest theory (with fewest assumptions) is most often correct. Or, entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily. Feedback leads to purified assumptions.
You always have a hypothesis at the start, even if the experiment has been run a hundred times. Ideally your assumptions get more accurate in reflecting reality with every go.
Feedback analysis will show you your strengths. Strengths can be developed, and knowledge gaps bridged, but it always has an objective point on a scale. Drucker says to write down your expectations, and review them with what actually happened down the road — every 9–12 months. You will uncover the areas where you have an intuitive feel, and where you need more experimenting to come to better assumptions.
“Find out where your intellectual arrogance is causing disabling ignorance”
Arrogance is confidence in excess.
Bring in people to give you feedback. Ray Dalio refers to these intellectual blind spots in his Principles book. The analogy is that we are like vehicles and we need people to act as mirrors to show us what we can’t see.
Furthermore, test your assumptions on the market: I think in the next 6 months this stock will go up. It costs you no money.
Aristotle and Drucker agree that: “people with expertise in one area- are contemptuous of knowledge in other areas.” People love their own brand.
Have a journal to review your actions, your intended outcomes, the unintended consequences, and apply it to long-term goals, short-run sprints, habits and beliefs.
