While I agree with that as a longer-term assessment of the industry, I don’t see that time-frame being realistic, nor the “fall” of big oil in quite that manner. First, Oil has a much broader usage footprint than coal, even if it’s in different grades/qualities, etc. Second, First-world countries like the US and Canada might be able to adapt to these technologies, but what about third world countries? Usage of oil has historically correlated to the number of people, advancement of overall economy and it’s growth, etc. — so that Billion+ in China? That 1.3Billion in India? the combined couple Billion in most of Africa — they are gonna’ be using the “old and outmoded” tech for a long time. Lastly, even in the advanced economies the analysis works where you have high-concentrations of people, but seems much more limited as population density decreases. So, cities? Sure. Close-in suburbs? Probably. Rural, and out-lying suburbs? Not-so-much; and even in the close-in suburbs, eliminating individual autos is a long-term tough sell because you can’t walk to the grocery or the pharmacy in many places, and how long are you waiting to run out for those one or two ingredients you need for finishing dinner?, although Amazon might be ready to deliver that for a modest fee, I suppose….
In the end, disruption for sure, but like Tobacco, they’ll battle to hold what they got — and it took 30 years to have meaningful changes in that industry after the surgeon general was putting that label on those packages. While I’m not suggesting it’ll last that same length, I think it will be a much longer horizon to see Oil truly pushed off the cliff similar to the experience of coal.