POLITICO Playbook: JEB’S SUMMER SURGE — WALKER floats V.P. — COLD WATER for Bernie fever

THE CONVERSATION: The Post’s Sean Sullivan and Jenna Johnson point out that Scott Walker “is already talking both privately and publicly about a running mate: Marco Rubio … embrace-and-diminish treatment.” http://wapo.st/1HjLaGO

— PLAYBOOK FACTS OF LIFE: Rubio is almost EVERY candidate’s top choice for #2, because of the dearth of minority GOP politicians. (The exception is Jeb. The Constitution prevents electors from Florida from voting for both of them — the reason Cheney changed his voter registration, and thus his technical home state, from Texas to Wyoming after picking himself for V.P. in 2000. So operatives think a Jeb-Marco or Marco-Jeb ticket would be too mathematically risky.)

Rubio knows his ticket to 1600 Pennsylvania might be as V.P. Yes, he WANTS to be President. But, he KNOWS he could quite easily land a helluva consolation prize. So watch for him to run a cautious, upbeat, future-focused primary campaign. That would benefit him in general election as the nominee, but also avoid hurting his strong shot for the undercard by offending or weakening others in the field.

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com), with Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

“JEB’S SUMMER SURGE: Bush is enjoying an unmistakable spike in the polls,” by Eli Stokols: “Bush has jumped from 10.8 percent on June 15, the day he announced, to 16.3 percent Wednesday in the Real Clear Politics polling average, almost 6 points ahead of his nearest rival, … Walker. In New Hampshire, he’s taken a similar lead. … Frank Luntz said[:] ‘No one ever challenged his credentials or his character … The question was always whether he had the passion and conviction GOP primary voters insist on. Over the past month, he’s demonstrated both, and that’s why he’s rising.’” http://politi.co/1SaxtjB

— “Bush Lands David Tepper; NJ and NY Stops Show Strength in Christie Country,” by N.Y. Observer’s Ken Kurson: “Jeb Bush is coming to New Jersey for two fundraising stops on July 23 … The biggest get is … David Tepper, the Livingston billionaire who ranked as the highest paid hedge fund manager.” See the invitation.http://bit.ly/1UDPIlB

THE MONEY, HONEY: “Rubio super PAC raises more than $16 million,” by Marc Caputo: “[T]hat total likely puts Rubio in third place behind … Jeb Bush (who is expected to raise the most) and fellow Sen. Ted Cruz (whose super PACs said they raised $38 million).” http://politi.co/1TmHFrE

Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan: “Boehner has raised more than $28 million for House Republicans since the beginning of 2015, a haul that is sure to help the party defend the biggest GOP majority in decades.” http://politi.co/1TnnWIh

AIR WARS — “GOP long-shots plan early-state ad blitz,” by Politico Campaign Pro Editor Steve Shepard: “Allies of at least [three] long-shot Republican presidential hopefuls [Perry, Jindal, Kasich] are planning to blitz Iowa and New Hampshire with paid advertisements in the coming week … The candidates … are in danger of failing to qualify for the first presidential debate … Aug. 6. The bet is that the ad buys will lead to a rise in poll numbers in one of the key early states … [and] generate enough positive news coverage to boost them into the top 10.” http://politi.co/1fpMkdW

— “Overflowing GOP presidential field has Fox News in demand,” by AP’s Julie Bykowicz: “Rubio … has placed orders for more than $12 million in ads that would start at the end of this year and air in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early … states. … Fox News … sucks up more political advertising spots than any other channel, NCC [Media] data show … CNN follows, then NBC, CBS and ABC.” http://yhoo.it/1RlSVXN

BREAKING — “South Carolina House votes [94–20, just before 1 a.m.] to take down flag: A former Republican majority leader ends up as the driving force,” by Ben Schreckinger: “[T]hree-dozen legislators piled into black SUVs and drove a mile down the road to the South Carolina State Museum to see for themselves the Confederate Relic Room — the final resting place of the Confederate flag [when it comes off] the State House.” http://politi.co/1KWfoFu

TOP STORY — “Wall Street’s day of chaos,” with NYSE out from 11:32 a.m. to 3:10 p.m. — Ben White in NYC: “[A]fter a big runup over the past several years, … U.S. stocks could be ripe for a major bubble burst. … [T]hat could complicate … Obama’s final year and a half in office and make it much harder for … Hillary Clinton to become Obama’s successor. Clinton is counting on strong markets and a strong economy … It’s not certain she will get either.” http://politi.co/1JQYsl

— USA Today banner, “GLITCH NATION” … Drudge banner, “GLITCHES GALORE” … WSJ 5-col. lead, “Glitch Freezes Big Board for Hours.”

— CNBC’s Brian Sullivan, during live coverage of the outage: “We in the media need to stop referring to things as a ‘glitch.’ … The word ‘glitch’ makes something big seem small.” Alternatives discussed: failure, screwup.

— David Greenberg of Greenberg Capital said on CNBC’s after-action coverage that the lessons of 9/11 apparently haven’t been learned: “Where is the backup? Where is the redundancy? … There should have been a seamless switch.”

— WashPost 2-col. lead, “NYSE outage adds to fears on fiscal fabric: PRESSURE BUILDS TO SHORE UP SYSTEMS — Technology is outpacing regulators, analysts say,” by Drew Harwell: “[A]nalysts said the SEC … has struggled to keep up with the technological revolution … opening the door to … damaging threats. … [S]ome traders said … new rules [in Nov.] have done little to prevent most of the … failures or fatal software flaws that can cripple an exchange, or have focused too much on damage control rather than … problems before they start.” http://wapo.st/1HjHDIG

D.C. DEALBOOK — “Obama said to put odds of an Iran deal at ‘less than 50–50,’” by Sarah Wheaton and Burgess Everett: “During something of a working cocktail party Tuesday night, the president sounded a fresh note of pessimism … ‘He said the chances he thought were less than 50–50 at this point and that he wouldn’t agree to something he thought was weak or unenforceable,’ Sen. Dick Durbin said.’” http://politi.co/1JV8JtM

“Price tag for [60] Syrian rebels: $4 million each,” by Austin Wright http://politi.co/1HjP2Yn

** A message from Walmart: Yesterday we wrapped up our “Made in the USA” Open Call and U.S. Manufacturing Summit. American suppliers pitched products like grill-top pizza ovens and insect-repellent vests for dogs. Terry McAuliffe and other governors spoke about U.S. manufacturing’s impact on local job markets. Learn more: http://bit.ly/1T8asA8 **

WHITE HOUSE PRESS LOUNGE — Josh Earnest emails the staff about home-stretch additions and promotions: “Jen Psaki, Amy Brundage, and I are excited to announce two promotions and some new additions to the Communications Department. … Keith Maley has been named Director of Regional Media. Most recently, Keith served as Regional Communications Director. … Katie Hill has been named Assistant Press Secretary. Katie is from Nashville … and most recently served as National Press Secretary for health care at [HHS]. … Katie will start at the White House on July 13. …

“Pat Cunnane [Patty Cakes!] has been named Deputy Director of Message Planning and Senior Writer. … Pat joined the White House in 2010. … Valentina Pereda has been named Deputy Director of Hispanic Media. Most recently, Valentina served as the Special Advisor for Communications and Stakeholder Engagement at the Small Business Administration … Valentina will start at the White House on July 16. …

“Brian Gabriel has been named Press Assistant and Wrangler. Brian is from New Orleans and prior to joining the White House, he worked as an Associate for the White House Comment Line and also served for four years in the U.S. Marine Corps as a military journalist.”

EXCLUSIVE — Samantha Power spokesman Max Gleischman joins Glover Park Group — Forthcoming release: Gleischman is joining GPG as a V.P. in the Strategic Communications practice and will focus on the firm’s growing international practice. Previously Gleischman spent seven years working for Sen. Dick Durbin and three years working for Sen. Russ Feingold in both his Washington office and on his Wisconsin-based campaigns. GPG Managing Director Jason Miner said: “Max is a talented press strategist with … a deep knowledge of international issues.”

COLD WATER FOR BERNIE FEVER:

— NATE SILVER, “Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else”:”There’s [one] theory … that probably does more to explain Sanders’s standing in Iowa and New Hampshire, and it’s really simple. Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that’s the core of Sanders’s support.” http://53eig.ht/1JQWwsD

— NATE COHN on The Upshot, “Why Bernie Sanders’s Momentum Is Not Built to Last”:”[T]he Sanders surge is about to hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate. … Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats — white and nonwhite alike.” http://nyti.ms/1fpLq1d

DAN PFEIFFER on CNN.com, “Stop the bed-wetting: Hillary Clinton’s doing fine”: “At her recent campaign rally in New Hampshire, one of Clinton’s field organizers addressed the crowd. … [O]n the various text chains, email threads and social media feeds that constitute the informal Obama alumni network, this was taken as a sign that this Hillary Campaign gets it.” http://cnn.it/1G8StjO

MAG COVERS:

— TIME, “Who’s Afraid of Elizabeth Warren? She’s hounding Obama, haunting Hillary and paving the way for Bernie Sanders,” by Michael Scherer: “The old arguments and alliances no longer hold sway and won’t draw crowds. And the giants of the party now find their credentials, and motivations, under attack.” The cover: http://bit.ly/1J5NH8B

— NYT Mag, “The Mixed-Up Brothers of Bogotá,” by Susan Dominus on the aftermath of what happens to two pairs of Colombian identical twins after a hospital mix-up http://nyti.ms/1J5MT3D See the cover.http://bit.ly/1NQpQ0y

Bloomberg Businessweek, “Sell A Mockingbird Sequel: A Story About Harper Lee, Her Lawyer, and the Ethics of Consent,” by Claire Suddath: She is “set to release a blockbuster novel on July 14 with an initial print run of more than 2 million copies.” Live at 7 a.m. http://buswk.co/HarperLee The cover http://bit.ly/1CqOnZw

GROUNDHOG DAY: Politico, June 26: “Trump bump terrifies GOP” http://politi.co/1KVX52Y... Daily Kos, June 26, “Republican leaders beginning to panic over Donald Trump” http://bit.ly/1fpD9u9 … WashPost A1, July 2: ‘Trump’s poll surge cheered by (a) Trump, (b) Democrats” http://wapo.st/1fpEPnt … National Review’s Jonah Goldberg, yesterday: “Trump Is a Bad Deal for the GOP” http://bit.ly/1HP2NF2 … CNN’s Chris Moody, yesterday: “GOP worries about Donald Trump fallout” http://cnn.it/1CquXUv … WashPost A1, today: “Leaders fear Trump is hurting GOP image.” http://wapo.st/1JVwfXs

— “Jose Andres backs out of restaurant in Donald Trump’s hotel,” by WashPost’s Emily Heil: “Andres, the co-owner of ThinkFoodGroup whose restaurant empire spans 18 restaurants and food trucks, multiple cookbooks and TV shows … [said:] ‘Donald Trump’s recent statements disparaging immigrants make it impossible for my company and I to move forward with opening a successful Spanish restaurant in Trump International’s upcoming hotel in Washington, D.C. … More than half of my team is Hispanic, as are many of our guests.’” http://wapo.st/1eHzPcM

“Donald Trump, clickbait: Reporters insist he has no shot, but news outlets, led by CNN, can’t get enough of him,” by Dylan Byers : “Since [he announced on June 16], CNN has covered Trump more than 400 times on television and on its website … That’s more coverage than CNN has given to Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker or any other major GOP candidates.” http://politi.co/1gpEIIH

— “Trump lunched with … Roger Ailes,” by Dylan Byers: “Trump and [the] Fox News chief … met privately for lunch at the 21st Century Fox headquarters in Manhattan in late June, just eight days after Trump announced his bid for the presidency.” http://politi.co/1TmH7SF

— DAVID REMNICK, “The Trump Balloon”: “His intention is not to inspire laughter or relief; his targets are not the powerful. He doesn’t punch up. … [T]he most immediate concern is … that he will get in the heads of the candidates around him.” http://nyr.kr/1NPAODh

@ShaneGoldmacher: “Donald Trump tells CNN of his massive Twitter and Facebook following, ‘It’s sort of like owning a newspaper, without the losses.’”

WHO THEY ARE — NYT A18, “A Political Lifer, Scott Walker Has Long Been His Own Strategist,” by Jonathan Martin : “He has held elected office continuously since 1993 … [H]e comes to the race steeped in the knowledge … of … what it costs to compete in swing states; the science of purchasing television advertising time.” http://nyti.ms/1Cq6UFb

TAYLOR GRIFFIN RUN AGAIN! “NEW BERN, NC: New Bern resident and small businessman Taylor Griffin announced he will challenge Walter B. Jones for the Republican nomination in North Carolina’s Third Congressional District primary. Griffin, 39, is an eastern North Carolina native, a former aide to North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms and a veteran of the George W. Bush White House and U.S. Treasury Department. Griffin mounted a late-starting challenge to Jones in 2014 … and gave him his toughest race in years, garnering 45% of the vote.” www.taylorgriffin.org

KGB FILE — “Where is Aaron Schock? Above the clouds,” by Kate Bennett: “Political-watchers have been buzzing about the whereabouts of former Congressman Aaron Schock, who hasn’t been spotted publicly in quite a while … However, The KGB File has learned that Schock … is actually spending time above the clouds this week, hiking to the top of Machu Picchu in Peru. … During dinner at a restaurant in the Peruvian city of Cusco, once the capital of the Incan Empire, Schock and his father, Richard Schock (who accompanied him on the trip), were overheard discussing the disgraced former congressman’s legal woes and how to navigate the murky waters of what the ethics probe might reveal.” http://politi.co/1J5VaEO

LIFE ONLINE — “How We Changed the Facebook Friends Icon,” by Facebook’s Caitlin Winner on Medium: “I was moved to do something about the size and order of the female silhouette in the ‘friends icon.’ As a woman, educated at a women’s college, it was hard not to read into the symbolism of the current icon; the woman was quite literally in the shadow of the man, she was not in a position to lean in.” http://bit.ly/1dNLq9B

— WSJ, bottom of B1, “Chat Apps Take a Swipe at Facebook ,” by Deepa Seetharaman: “Six of the world’s 10 most-used apps are messaging services … Analysts expect WhatsApp to reach a billion users by early next year, seven years after it began-two years faster than Facebook itself hit that mark. … Beyond acquiring WhatsApp for $22 billion in 2014, [Facebook] also developed and promoted Messenger, which now boasts more than 700 million users.

“’We believe that messaging [is] one of the few things that people actually do more than social networking,’ … Mark Zuckerberg said … last year. Still, the shift poses risks for Facebook … Many messaging apps don’t show messages in a … stream, making it more challenging to display ads.” http://on.wsj.com/1HP1yp7

— NYT B1, “Yahoo Makes a Big Entrance Into Fantasy Sports Betting,” by Vindu Goel and Joe Drape in S.F.: Yahoo will “host daily and one-week fantasy sports games played for money, starting with Major League Baseball and expanding to other professional sports as their seasons begin. … [D]aily games will generate around $2.6 billion in entry fees this year and grow 41 percent annually, reaching $14.4 billion in 2020. … Yahoo will keep about 10 percent of the fees.” http://nyti.ms/1CqzoP8

DATA DU JOUR — Per Represent.Us: “50% of senators and 42% of Members now leave Congress to become lobbyists (as opposed to just 3% in 1974), and they get on average a 1,500% raise.” http://bit.ly/1RlA7Ie

THE WAY TO WIN: Gen. Stan McChrystal’s question for job candidates — Business Insider’s Richard Feloni: “McChrystal [told Tim Merris in a podcast] that … he’ll ask them what someone who doesn’t like them would say about them. ‘It puts a person in the position of having to try to articulate what they think the perception of them by others is.’” http://yhoo.it/1Cq0ypl … The podcast http://bit.ly/1Mgjmr7

TALKER — “Dog deaths during grooming revive calls for regulations,” by AP’s Sue Manning: “Curly, a toy poodle, was 17 years old when he died. But old age didn’t kill him — grooming did … The recent deaths have stirred concerns, including one stemming from a divisive grooming tool: heated kennel dryers, which are cages with heating coils or an attached heating device. Some say big dogs with long, thick coats won’t dry without them, and others say small dogs can die because of them.” http://yhoo.it/1JQWDEz

HOT VIDEO: “uncomfortable trailer for MTV’s [Jose Antonio Vargas] documentary ‘White People’”: http://bit.ly/1KPXNR7

MEDIAWATCH — Dave Weigel leaves Bloomberg to become WashPost national political reporter — Post email to staff: “Dave … will focus on the people and movements that are galvanizing so much of modern politics. Dave is also an expert on Rand Paul and will continue to cover his quest … And Dave will anchor a new political podcast that will launch later this year. … Before he comes on board, he is finishing a book about progressive rock music, a lifelong (and extremely hip) obsession.” http://wapo.st/1HdxQoa

— Barney Frank joins Politico as columnist — Politico Magazine Editor Garrett Graff emails the staff this a.m.: “He’ll be a feisty, thoughtful voice from the left … and a great counterpart for National Review’s Rich Lowry, whose column and insights from the right appears on our site each Wednesday night. … Check out his piece this morning on Republicans and inequality.” http://politi.co/1HiVkHL

— “Matt Friedman Leaving [Newark] Star-Ledger for Politico,” by N.Y. Observer’s John Bonazzo: “The Star-Ledger stalwart … is leaving New Jersey’s largest media organization to join Politico’s fledgling New Jersey bureau. Mr. Friedman, who cut his Garden State teeth at the Observer’s sister site PolitickerNJ, was said to be stifled under the Star-Ledger’s slowness.” http://bit.ly/1HdE4Ex

VALLEY TALK — “Apple Eyes Record Production Run for New iPhones,” by WSJ’s Lorraine Luk and Daisuke Wakabayashi: “Apple is asking suppliers to manufacture between 85 million and 90 million units combined of two new iPhone models with 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch displays by Dec. 31 … In the first half of its fiscal year ending September, Apple sold 135.6 million iPhones, a 43% increase from the same period a year earlier.” http://on.wsj.com/1Cqje8I

HOLLYWOODLAND — WSJ A1, below fold, “New Movies Coming Sooner to Homes,” by Erich Schwartzel and Ben Fritz: “Paramount Pictures is overturning decades of tradition [and] has struck a deal with two major theater chains to make a pair of coming releases available to watch at home just two weeks after they leave most theaters.” http://on.wsj.com/1Cqjh4a

TRANSITIONS — Hamilton Place Strategies adds Brai Odion-Esene as senior director, from Market News International, and Stratton Kirton As Director [from Hill+Knowlton]

— Hagar Hajjar Chemali has started as the new director of comms. and spokesperson at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. He was previously at the Treasury Department as Spokesperson covering sanctions, illicit finance, and enforcement actions.

SPORTS BLINK — ESPN drops Keith Olbermann again — NYT’s Richard Sandomir: “The viewership of Olbermann’s program this year has been as high as 181,000, in January, and as low as 148,000, in April.” http://nyti.ms/1KWht4g

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Amy Sennett, VP of int’l strategy and asst. general counsel for Boston 2024 … Dan Rosenthal, principal at Albright Stonebridge Group … Dean Garfield, president and CEO, Information Technology Industry Council, whose favorite innovation is the airplane

BIRTHDAYS: Joan VandeHei (Pack tip: John, Johnny, Jim, Julie) … Jeb campaign manager Danny Diaz is 4–0 (h/t Matt Mackowiak) … Sen. Lindsey Graham is 6–0 (h/t Christiana Purves) … AP’s Tom Beaumont … Don Rumsfeld is 83 … former Rep. Dave Camp … Drew Hammill of Leader Pelosi’s office, and the pride of Pittsburg, Ill. (h/t Evangeline George) … HuffPo’sAmanda Terkel … Amy Fiscus, an editor in the L.A. Times D.C. bureau (h/t Katie Zezima) … Elisa Shyu of Yahoo!’s D.C. office … Mike Britt, alum of Romney and Bush WH and now VP of biz. development and gov’t relations for Zuffa, which owns UFC … Kirill Goncharenko, president and a founding partner of Mercury (h/t Jon Haber) … Matthew Yurus …

… Jean Medina, SVP of comms. for Airlines for America … Megan Ortiz, VP at The Cohen Group, Sec. Bill Cohen’s firm (h/ts hubby Michael and baby Sofia) … State Innovation Exchange executive director Nick Rathod, a former Obama W.H. deputy director of inter-governmental affairs… Donna Dettbarn … Cathy St. Denis (h/ts Theresa Vilmain) … Robert Higdon … CNN’s Jeff J. Simon, a WaPo alum … Qorvis’s Jennifer Baskerville, a CNN alum … Mineko Tokito, Yomiuri Shimbun reporter … Goldman Sachs lobbyist Amy Overton, a Citi, Tom Carper and Fannie Mae alum … Jeff Wexler …

… Emily Ethridge, a CQ alum now corporate comms. manager for Grubb Properties in Charlotte, N.C. … Elizabeth McMahon … Grace McMahon … Doug Badger …Todd Kliman … neurologist and author Oliver Sacks is 82 … Brian Dennehy is 77 … author Dean Koontz is 70 … John Tesh is 63 … Kevin O’Leary (“Shark Tank”) is 61 … Jimmy Smits is 60 … Tom Hanks is 59 … Kelly McGillis is 58 … Courtney Love is 51 … actress Georgie Henley is 20 (h/ts AP)

DESSERT — “Chalupas on Demand: Taco Bell Starts Delivery Service” — AP/NYC: “Getting your Taco Bell fix may soon get a whole lot easier. The restaurant chain is starting delivery service on Wednesday in certain markets in a partnership with the startup delivery company DoorDash. Delivery will be available initially in more than 90 cities and more than 200 restaurants around Los Angeles, San Francisco and Dallas.” http://yhoo.it/1HODfrt

** A message from Walmart: For the past two days, U.S. Suppliers participating in the Open Call had the chance to pitch their products to Walmart. Last year, our Open Call produced over 800 meetings with potential suppliers — and we know that this year’s will result in even more success stories. Attendees of the U.S. Manufacturing Summit heard from governors from across the U.S. and had the opportunity to attend Supplier Academy Sessions on topics like U.S. Manufacturing Trends, Working with Governments and Navigating the Supply Chain. Learn more about the events here: http://bit.ly/1T8asA8 **

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