POLITICO Playbook: NEW YEAR’S EVE edition: 32 days to Iowa — FIGHTING LAME DUCK-ITIS: Obama to start ’16 with big move on guns

Good Thursday morning from Miami Beach. Thank you for reading and feeding Playbook through this disruptive, engrossing year in American politics. 2016 will even better — glad we’re on the ride together. Drop us a line when you have news or when we can do better: mallen@politico.com and dlippman@politico.com. Have fun tonight — you deserve it. And make sure that at least one of your New Year’s resolutions involves other people, not just yourself: What’s something I can regularly do for my co-workers or the people I do life with? Then don’t talk about it — just do it.

DAILY TRUMP — Union Leader p. 1, above fold, “Trump’s list gives some a surprise” — Granite Status column by Dan Tuohy: “A few Granite Staters were surprised to see their names on the billionaire’s list of town chairmen … One headline sounds like it was plucked from The Onion … ‘Reporter stunned to see he’s Trump’s Tamworth chair,’ read the headline in The Conway Daily Sun. The reporter, Daymond Steer, explained in the Sun article that his name was somehow added to the endorsement list when he was surfing the Trump website for a story. The Trump campaign has since rectified the mistake.” http://bit.ly/1NU8qS8

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

BREAKING — “Obama set to unveil curbs on gun sellers: Executive actions expected next week will be part of the president’s New Year push to make progress on long-stalled problems before the 2016 presidential election heats up,” by Sarah Wheaton and Isaac Dovere: “Obama’s bid to assert himself in his final year will begin with his long-awaited gun control executive actions-which are expected to be released next week, shortly after he returns [from Hawaii]…

“[T]he changes include requiring an expanded number of small-scale gun sellers to be licensed-and therefore conduct background checks-whenever selling a weapon. … The administration is also expected to impose tighter rules for reporting guns that get lost or stolen on their way to a buyer.” http://politi.co/1YU43JH

— POLITICO’s “BROKEN BY DESIGN” investigative series — “How Obama failed to shut Washington’s revolving door: He vowed to keep lobbyists out of his administration, but loopholes weakened his pledge,” by Josh Gerstein: “[S]even years into Obama’s presidency, the revolving door shuttling officials out of his administration is spinning at a rapid clip, and Obama has seen his campaign promise founder against the deeply ingrained culture of selling government expertise in Washington.” http://politi.co/1NUaDwM

FRONT PAGE OF THE DAY — N.Y. Daily News: “AFTER 55+ ACCUSATIONS, COSBY FINALLY BUSTED — HE SAID-SHE SAID, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said…” (55 “she saids”). See the page. http://on.fb.me/1R0A0B9

JEB TRIAGE — “Bush campaign shifts resources to early states in strategy shake-up,” by Alex Isenstadt: “Bush’s campaign … is deploying nearly all of its staff in its Miami headquarters to early states and shifting millions of dollars in TV ad reservations. On a … staff-wide conference call, top campaign officials, including campaign manager Danny Diaz, informed employees that the deployment would be staggered throughout the month of January. The campaign is expected to dispatch between 50 and 60 staffers in Miami and elsewhere, with 20 going to New Hampshire and 10 or more going to Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada. 

“The campaign … will scrap over $1 million of TV spending in Iowa … and around $2 million in South Carolina.” http://politi.co/1OlPixM

WHAT IOWA IS READING — Des Moines Register p. 3A (with 1A tease), “Bush cancels Iowa TV buy, shifts money to ground game,” by Jennifer Jacobs: “The news will raise questions about whether the former Florida governor might pull out of Iowa given his fifth-place status … That’s not the case, Bush campaign manager Danny Diaz told The Des Moines Register. The number of Iowa paid staffers who make personal contact with voters will be boosted from 11 to more than 20, including its Hispanic outreach director, he said. Bush returns to campaign here Jan. 11–13 with stops in Iowa City, Grinnell, Des Moines and Ankeny.” http://dmreg.co/1mrx0AD

WORTH THE CLICK — “POLITICO Magazine’s First Insanely Hard Trivia Quiz: What are Trump’s favorite colors? Whose songs did Bernie record? 38 questions to test whether you’re a true political obsessive.” http://politi.co/1P24axM

-”The Worst Political Predictions of 2015: Remember when some thought Donald Trump wouldn’t matter?” by Jesse Rifkin for Politico Magazine : “Meerkat will change politics forever. … Joe Biden will run for president. … Elizabeth Warren will run for president. … Mitt Romney will run for president again (and will win). … Scott Walker will be the Republican nominee. … Trump won’t run. Or, if he does, it won’t matter. … Trump is done for. … Money will be everything. … The Confederate flag will put up a tough fight in South Carolina. … The American flag will be next. … A bunch of things that Karl Rove said. … An Iran deal will send the price of oil spiraling downward. … Kevin McCarthy will become speaker of the House. … Harry Reid will run again as Senate majority leader.” http://politi.co/1MIbr42

** A message from NextGen Climate: How do we protect and grow our economy? Ensure our national security? Create healthier lives for our families and communities? By transitioning to 50 percent clean energy by 2030. Confronting climate change is essential to the issues most important to our nation. Learn how: https://nextgenclimate.org/playbook **

STATE OF THE ART — USA Today 1A, above fold, “TV faces threat to its throne in politics: Bush spends much to achieve little; Trump blows off broadcasts,” by Rick Hampson (online: “TV, the old king of U.S. politics, faces mortality”): “It’s a paradox of the 2016 campaign: unprecedented political spending on TV ads, and unprecedented doubt over whether it’s having much impact. The fall of King TV is not imminent. But in 2015, TV broadcast advertising seemed inversely related to political success, as measured by polls. …

“Digital advertising is beginning to challenge TV’s dominance. According to a report for clients by the consulting firm Borrell Associates, political spending on digital ads will pass $1 billion for the first time in this election … By the 2020 election, Borrell forecasts, digital will have risen to within 30% of broadcast TV. … But for the foreseeable future, broadcast TV’s unique advantages will make it the most important single channel in politics. Experts say the poll woes of stalwart advertisers such as Bush are primarily the fault of the candidates, not their advertising medium. …

“TV, however, may be heading for a cliff . Even the PACs, which were essentially devised to finance TV ads, are now investing more in non-broadcast campaigning, And the Borrell report predicts that after 2016, ‘broadcast TV’s fall from political ad spending grace will be breathtaking.’ By 2020, it estimates, TV will have lost almost 14 share points, as digital nips at its heels. For now, though — whatever its expense and however questionable its utility — TV advertising in a close election is like nuclear weapons in the Cold War: No one wants to risk disarming unilaterally.” http://usat.ly/1JhqdUu

MEDIAWATCH — “2015: The year politics trumped sports on cable,” by Alex Weprin and Hadas Gold: “The slew of presidential primary debates, both Republican and Democrat, pushed Fox News, CNN, CNBC and Fox Business Network to ratings heights they had never seen in their histories … The primary debates of 2015 brought in a whopping cumulative total of more than 120 million viewers … Those are numbers matched only by NFL football games, which average in the mid-20 millions … [A]lmost 70 percent of Americans have watched at least one of the six primary debates this year.” http://politi.co/1mqNbhw

MOOD MUSIC — “The 2016 enthusiasm gap: Polls show Republicans are fired up and excited to vote in the presidential race. Democrats say there’s no cause for alarm,” by Steven Shepard: “The latest CNN/ORC International poll laid out a stark ‘enthusiasm gap’ between the two parties: 36 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they were ‘very enthusiastic’ about voting for president next year, compared to just 19 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.” http://politi.co/1UhsXS9

N.H. STRATEGERY — N.Y. Times A1, top of col. 1, “Independents Are Early Key In 2016 Race: Largest Share of Voters in New Hampshire,” by Patrick Healy in Rochester, N.H., and Matt Flegenheimer in N.Y. (online: “New Hampshire Independents May Control Fates of Trump and Sanders”): “About 40 percent of the New Hampshire electorate is independent (officially called undeclared) — a greater voter share than either party … — and is allowed to participate in either primary. … Early indications suggest that independents are being drawn to the … Republican race, where the large number of candidates can give these voters an outsize role in the outcome. …

“Tad Devine, a senior adviser to Mr. Sanders, said the campaign was courting independents with mailings and through other voter outreach efforts in part by highlighting issues like campaign finance reform and the power of special interests in Washington, which the campaign expects to resonate particularly with independents.” http://nyti.ms/1TrHR8x

HOT IN HILLARYLAND — “Clinton’s campaign likely to surpass $100 million fundraising goal,” by CNN’s Dan Merica: “Clinton will roll into 2016 by likely surpassing her campaign’s $100 million fundraising goal for its first three quarters … Clinton raised at least $21 million at fundraisers she personally headlined in the fourth quarter of 2015 … The Democratic front-runner headlined a total of 58 fundraisers in the fourth quarter.” http://cnn.it/1mT8RU3

— HILLARY’s 2015 campaign report card: “The report highlights include more than 5,520,000 doors knocked and phone calls made by volunteers, 1,728 librarians who have donated to the campaign, 524 questions answered by Hillary Clinton at town halls alone, 168,396 miles Hillary Clinton has logged on the campaign trail across 38 states and territories visited, among others.” http://bit.ly/1YTPdmt

CHIN MUSIC — “How Rubio helped his ex-con brother-in-law acquire a real estate license,” by WashPost’s Scott Higham and Manuel Roig-Franzia: “When Marco Rubio was majority whip of the Florida House of Representatives, he used his official position to urge state regulators to grant a real estate license to his brother-in-law, a convicted cocaine trafficker who had been released from prison 20 months earlier.” http://wapo.st/1UhsS15The letter http://wapo.st/1PyxXRi

— “Rubio Is Plenty Conservative,” by Jim Geraghty in National Review: “[I]f Rubio really represents the new GOP ‘establishment,’ then the fight is over and the conservatives won. Despite infuriating many grassroots conservatives by pushing the failed Gang of Eight immigration-reform bill and advocating a path to legalization, Rubio has an indisputably conservative record as a senator. This is a man who has a lifetime [American Conserviative Union] rating of 98 out of 100.” http://bit.ly/1mT8SHv

FIRST LOOK — “100% Hart: A summary of 2015 polling conducted for our clients”: “To recap the year, we are tweeting findings from our research from 1% to 100% @HartSurveys:”1% of voters think that 2015 was one of the best years for the United States. … 2% of conservative GOP Primary voters are supporting Jeb Bush. … 3% of voters feel ‘very positive’ towards Jeb Bush. … 89% of Democratic primary voters feel optimistic about where the U.S. is headed (only 22% for GOP primary voters). … 100% of Americans know Donald Trump’s name.” Full results http://bit.ly/1OmbjN4

AIR WARS — “Huckabee Super PAC Tries to Regain Hold on Iowa Evangelicals in New Ad,” by Time’s Zeke Miller: “The ad, titled ‘Moral Clarity,’ highlights Huckabee’s opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, and his commitment to prayer. The group, Pursuing America’s Greatness, is backing the over $500,000 buy, including airing the spot during college football bowl games such as the Iowa Hawkeyes’ appearance in the Rose Bowl.” http://ti.me/1PxZDaQ

OBAMA ALUMNI — BILL BURTON in the SacBee, “Predictable pattern of politics has become unglued”:”The comfortable, conventional pattern of our politics has become unglued because of voters’ anxiety over the economy, and the real and present fear of terrorism. Acceptable rhetoric has gotten hotter, and publicly expressed attitudes toward immigrants and Muslims are colder. The climate of American political history is changing.” http://bit.ly/1kuTE9M

VIDEO DU JOUR — 2015’s top 10 social media videos seen on C-SPAN http://bit.ly/1ZCXjT0

CLICKERS — “Behind the Lens: 2015 Year in Photographs,” by Pete Souza, Chief Official White House Photographer, on Medium — 113 pics on 1 page: http://bit.ly/1mqTfXi

— “A guide to the allegations of Bill Clinton’s womanizing,” by WashPost’s Glenn Kessler: http://wapo.st/1SnwfFh

— “15 Ways to Be a Better Person in 2016” — NYT: “A year’s worth of tips from the Styles archive.” http://nyti.ms/1NWwmlH

TRANSITIONS — Brittni Palke has left Rep. Glenn Grothman’s office and is starting Monday as the press secretary with the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Gov. Affairs.

SPOTTED at Michael Rekola’s 30th birthday party at Central Michel Richard’s: wife Kaitlin Sweeney (counsel of NEI), Alison Schnider (Locust Street Group), Andrew Schult (OGR), Sean Leonard (SBC) as well as Peter Psillous, Kate Mellor, Jamie Williams, and Kyle Snider.

ENGAGED — Riva Litman, a comms and public affairs manager at Google and alum of House Republican Conference and Cathy McMorris Rodgers, to John Sciuto, a financial advisor at Wells Fargo Advisors: “On Saturday morning (December 12), the day before I turned the big 3–0, John took me to our favorite place in DC, Compass Coffee. … John had organized everything in advance with the owners of the coffee shop. He led me to a special table — complete with a heart made of coffee beans! — dropped to one knee, and popped the question. … We met one time 2004 at a high school debate championship tournament in Salt Lake City (he’s from upstate NY; I’m from California). We went our separate ways — John to the University of Richmond and Riva to UC Berkeley) and reunited six years later in DC, thanks to the great Kristen Soltis Anderson, another debate alumna.” Pichttp://bit.ly/1SnwSi1

— Michael Reed, the outgoing comms. director for Gov. Bobby Jindal and an NRSC alum, got engaged the Sundaybefore Thanksgiving in Jackson Square in New Orleans, to Alice Knight, who works for a non-profit based in NYC called Single Stop USA (where she helps manage the Gulf Region). They met when she worked for OnMessage in Baton Rouge. A wedding is being planned for January 2017 in New Orleans. Pic http://bit.ly/1NT3Y67

— IMGE’s Christina “Charlie” Heimerdinger, a Generation Opportunity alum, to Chris Chambers, a grad student at Virginia Tech. Charlie emails us: “We actually met in Iowa in 2012 while I was working for the Republican Party of Iowa’s Victory team and he volunteered in my office to make phone calls. They didn’t start dating until he moved to DC for work — I was late to our first date thanks to the metro breaking down (classic). He proposed at the iconic fountain in his hometown of Madison, Indiana on Christmas Eve with a celebration of both his family and mine immediately after.” Instagram pic http://bit.ly/1JKE4xm … The ring http://bit.ly/1mrde85

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jason Recher, of Northstar Strategies and a Bush 43 WH alum, emails friends and family: “Walter William Recher came bounding into New Orleans [Wednesday] at 2:53 local time clocking in at 8 lbs, 10 oz and stretching to 21 inches. In keeping with tradition, we had Paul Simon blasting in the background to keep us and the amazing nursing staff at Ochsner in rhythm. Baby is healthy and handsome. His mom [Andrea] is my hero … [H]e’ll be perfect size to plop in the middle of a King Cake as we celebrate Kings Day one week from today. His older sisters Kennedy (almost 4) and Presley (almost 2) can’t wait to meet him tomorrow morning — and he can’t wait to meet all of you soon — along the parade routes or somewhere down the road soon!” Picshttp://bit.ly/1NWI2oG … http://bit.ly/1RSxoFv … http://bit.ly/1PygMBc

— JAMES DAVIS of Freedom Partners: “I’m proud to announce that at 9:50 pm Patricia gave birth to a healthy, beautiful 6 lbs 11 ounces, baby girl! Thank you for your prayers. They’re both doing great! Four girls!”

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Michael Rekola, comms. director for FWD.us and an Issa/OGR alum, turned 3–0

BIRTHDAYS: Bloomberg View’s Josh Rogin, the pride of Bensalem, Penn. … Brian Danza, CTO of Daily Caller, is 35 … WashPost’s Joel Achenbach, the pride of Gainesville, Fla., is 55 … WSJ’s Naftali Bendavid … Betsy Barrett, a V.P. in Glover Park Group’s Strategic Communications Division … Dick Short (h/t son Marc) … Nathan Martin, celebrating 2016 five hours early (h/t Nick Butterfield) … NBC’s Jim Long … Simon Kennedy, Bloomberg senior economics correspondent and the pride of Nottingham, England … Karina Cabrera, director of congressional affairs at the White House Presidential Personnel Office … Mark Ein, after securing a fifth straight team tennis title as owner of the Washington Kastles, is 51 … Ronnie Cho, Emmy winning MTV exec and Obama campaign and White House alum and the pride of Phoenix, is 33, celebrating in NYC … Nati Nieuwstraten is 6, celebrating at the Orange Bowl …

… Leslee Deckard (h/t Josh and Ali) … Martin J. Kady, WashPost alumnus and father of Politico’s Marty Kady, is 7–0 … Wade Atkinson … HuffPost editorial director Danny Shea … Meeghan Prunty, long time advisor to Bob Rubin and a senior advisor to The Hamilton Project … White House photographer Lawrence Jackson … Becca Ferguson (h/t Teresa Vilmain) … Bill Bagley … Jeff Milstein … John Davis … Henry Hunter, general counsel at theGROUP DC (h/ts Jon Haber) …

… Jackson Fauvre, Meridith Webster’s son (h/t Savannah) … Don Trump Jr. … Marni Karlin, former Kohl Judiciary Committee staffer and current VP of gov’t affairs at the Organic Trade Association … Darren Reisberg, VP and Secretary of the University at UChicago … Andy Sere, ad maker at DMM Media and David McKinley alum … Bob Dietz … Lisa Lindo … John Francis Kucera … Danielle Reed … Jeff White … Patrick Holtz is 41 … TV producer George Schlatter is 86 … actor Sir Anthony Hopkins is 78 … Tim Considine (“My Three Sons”) is 75 … actor Sir Ben Kingsley is 72 … Diane von Furstenberg is 69 … author Nicholas Sparks is 50 … PSY (Park Jae-sang) is 38 … actor/singer Erich Bergen (Film/stage: “Jersey Boys”) is 30 … Olympic gold medal gymnast Gabby Douglas is 20 (h/ts AP)

** A message from NextGen Climate: Citigroup estimates climate change will cost the global economy $44 trillion. The Pentagon calls climate change a “threat multiplier” that puts our national security at risk, contributes to the spread of terrorism, and fuels humanitarian crises. Doctors warn climate change will harm air quality, spread disease, and put our families’ lives at risk. Find out why responsible political leadership requires a real climate plan that powers America with at least 50 percent clean energy by 2030 https://nextgenclimate.org/playbook **

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