POLITICO Playbook: RYAN ROARS IN: Demands strengthened Speaker, but offers concession to hardliners on regular order

THE CONVERSATION: Who’s Mr. Inevitable now? In ABC/WashPost, 42% of leaned Rs “say they expect Trump to win the GOP nomination [15% say Carson, 12% Jeb, 5% Marco]. … And given a list of six potential nominees, 43 percent pick Trump as having the best chance to win the general election.” Best chance to win: Carson 16%, Bush 13%, Rubio 11%, Cruz 4%, Fiorina 3%. http://abcn.ws/1XjyXMV

— “Trump’s Republican critics pushing for GOP-backed takedown,” by AP’s Steve Peoples: “Katie Packer, … Romney’s deputy campaign manager[,] … says there is ‘some rumbling’ about a well-funded anti-Trump campaign … ‘Folks have to remember that lead changes don’t just happen,’ she said. ‘Something causes them to happen.’” http://bit.ly/1M7JKHY

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

Good Wednesday morning. It’s “Back to the Future” Day: “Oct. 21, 2015 — when … Marty McFly, Emmett ‘Doc’ Brown and Jennifer Parker journeyed from 1985 to 2015 in the sci-fi film trilogy’s second installment in 1989,” per AP. C-SPAN’s Howard Mortman: “Marking #BackToTheFuture Day in Playbook? Here’s Pres. Reagan quoting the film in 1986 State of the Union: (‘where we’re going, we don’t need roads’).”http://cs.pn/1M7HXCY

HAMLET TAKING TOO LONG: Biden at 16% among Dems in ABC/WashPost, down from 21% in September. http://abcn.ws/1W4ZCjb

PLAYBOOK IN-BOX — DAN SENOR, Ryan adviser: “This is the last job that Paul ever thought he’d pursue, but the stakes became so high. And over the past twelve days, this reality was made clear to him repeatedly by a number of House GOP Members of all ideological stripes, by GOP senators who believe their Senate majority will be in jeopardy if the House is in meltdown, and also by people concerned about the impact an ungovernable House will have on our GOP presidential nominee.

“What’s striking about Paul’s speech to the conference (and his statement to the press) is that this is exactly what he’s been saying privately to friends, allies and advisers as he’s deliberated. It was a 100% transparent window into his thinking. This kind of candor — about his motivation, his concern for what it all means for his family, and his assessment of how to make the job work — is rare in politics.”

GOP CHAOS — “Ryan will serve as speaker if GOP unites behind him,” by Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Lauren French: “Ryan … wants to know by Friday if the 247 [House Republicans] support him. If not, he is ‘happy’ to continue as chairman of [Ways and Means] … Ryan wants the [Freedom Caucus] to refrain from any attempts to remove him … if he makes a decision it disagrees with … [N]ot at all clear the … Caucus will agree.” http://politi.co/1jA4mwa

TICK-TOCK — “How Paul Ryan got to (almost) yes,” by Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Anna Palmer: “Ryan strode onto the United Airlines flight at O’Hare … with a venti Starbucks coffee, … and one of the biggest secrets in Washington stashed in his brown leather bag. For much of the roughly 90-minute flight, … Ryan read with his head down. Interrupted by sips of Dasani lime seltzer water and an occasional bathroom break, Ryan was reviewing the remarks that could potentially redirect his career, and will certainly alter the political trajectory of the beleaguered House Republican Conference.

“Late last week, Ryan, a father of three, came around to the idea of seeking the job he once dubbed as perfect for an empty nester. He settled on a five-point plan. The first was setting conditions under which the … speaker could thrive. … Regular Order. And do away with the ‘motion to vacate,’ a … tactic to force a floor vote on his speakership should he antagonize the far right.” http://politi.co/1kp6NSl

Drudge banner: “KING PAUL: PLEDGE YOUR ALLEGIANCE — DEM FAVORITE — OBAMA’S NEW PARTNER” … HuffPost banner: “I DEMAND UNITY.”

IF YOU ONLY CLICK 1 THING: PAYING FOR IT — Politico’s The Agenda dives into the perplexing world of American budgeting: Congress blew straight through its September budget deadline, passed another temporary funding patch, and is headed toward a fresh round of budget chicken as we approach the debt ceiling yet again. This month’s issue of The Agenda examines our broken budget process, looks at some expert ideas for how to fix it, and explores new revenue ideas — as well as spotlighting D.C.’s favorite sources of imaginary money. The issuehttp://politi.co/1ORi9dc

MOMENTUM FOR HILLARY before tomorrow’s Benghazi testimony — WashPost, top of A4, “Clinton opens a 31-point edge over her top rival,” by Dan Balz and Peyton Craighill: She has 54% of Dems in WashPost/ABC, up from “42 percent in September, by far her lowest level of support over the past two years, and 63 percent in July.” Sanders 23%, almost identical to Sept. http://wapo.st/1ZWCNh6

— HILLARY CAMPAIGN releases a video, “Benghazi Committee Political Charade Continues"http://bit.ly/1M6Jpiu

— DAVID BROCK, founder of Correct The Record: “We relish this fight, by the way.” He releases “The Complete Guide to the Benghazi Select Committee,” a “summation of the facts … that will be revealed.” 142-page PDF http://bit.ly/1PzjUNE

FIRST LOOK: Senate Dem leaders are sending a letter to RNC, calling for the party to reimburse Treasury for expenses by House Benghazi Committee. RNC’s Allison Moore: “Harry Reid’s pathetic attempt to inject politics into the final, definitive account of the 9/11 terrorist attack in Benghazi that killed four Americans dishonors their memory.”

** A message from Altria. While you may not know the name, chances are you do know many of our companies. Altria is more than just tobacco, and today our companies are focused on evolving as adult consumer preferences change. For a closer look at Altria today, visit bit.ly/altriatoday **

STORY OF THE DAY — Boston Globe p. A1, “Words for the masses : Trump tops GOP field while talking to voters at fourth­grade level,” by Matt Viser: “The Globe reviewed the language … in speeches announcing their campaigns … using … the Flesch-Kincaid readability test that crunches word choice and sentence structure and spits out grade-level rankings.” This article: 8.6.

— GRADE-LEVEL RANKINGS — Rs: Gilmore 10.5 … Huckabee 10.3 … Fiorina 9.6 … Cruz 8.9 … Rubio 8.6 … Christie 8.6 … Bush 8.0 … Paul 7.5 … Jindal 7.1 … Pataki 7.0 … Grahm 6.7 … Santorum 6.2 … Carson 5.9 … Kasich 4.7 … Trump 4.1 … Ds: Sanders, 10.1 … Chafee 8.5 … Clinton 7.7 … O’Malley 7.7. http://bit.ly/1Lnr57H

INSTAGRAM DU JOUR — @realdonaldtrump: “Bill Clinton wants to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain,” with clips of Bill saying: “He’s a master brander and he’s the most interesting character out there and there is a macho appeal to saying I’m sick of nothing happening, I make things happen. Vote for me. And I like him.” The short Insta video ends with “THANKS BILL!!!!!” and then “TRUMP MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” http://bit.ly/1ZWC0ge

DAILY TRUMP — “Trump showed Rick Santorum his belt: The real estate mogul called the ex-senator a loser. Then they became buddies,” by Kyle Cheney: “[D]uring a visit to New York with his daughter, Santorum decided to pay Trump a visit [Santorum recalled yesterday during a State Visit yesterday to Politico World HQ]. The first thing he noticed was the decor. ‘I’ve never seen anybody whose walls are entirely covered with pictures of himself. I mean, every inch of the wall is covered from the floor to the top is all covered with pictures.’” http://politi.co/1ORiRqD

— WashPost A4, top of A4, “New link between Trump, super PAC: Operative says he got donor e-mail address from Trump assistant,” by Matea Gold and Tom Hamburger: “In a Sept. 1 e-mail, Mike Ciletti, a Colorado GOP operative working for the Make America Great Again PAC, suggested to a Trump acquaintance and longtime GOP donor that he was using contact information he obtained from Trump’s longtime assistant and gatekeeper, Rhona Graff.” http://wapo.st/1LKxMSL

2016 PLAYERS — “Clinton Adds Female Pollster to Polling Operation,” by Maggie Haberman: “Clinton is bringing on two new pollsters, Jill Normington and Dave Petts, adding to a polling team led by Joel Benenson.” http://nyti.ms/1RnbKVX

DIGITAL 2016 — CHRIS CHRISTIE: “Two things still remain a fantasy on this #BackToTheFutureDay — a Cubs World Series and saving Social Security. Take a look at what will happen if we continue to ignore this entitlement crisis for 30 more years.” http://politi.co/1ZWkSar … Rubio “Back to the Future” video http://bit.ly/1W4K3Iq

WHO THEY ARE — JON WARD, “The political education of Ben Carson”: “In 2013, Ben Carson told Glenn Beck that he had no plans to run for president. ‘I would be a terrible candidate,’ he said. … Carson has been a bumbling candidate, but it hasn’t mattered.” http://yhoo.it/1ZWmSzi

MEDIAWATCH — “NYT Magazine’s Bin Laden Cover Story Sparked Controversy In The Newsroom,” by HuffPost’s Michael Calderone: “The concerns in the Washington bureau boil down to the following … Some staffers believe [Jonathan] Mahler, who covers the media, didn’t sufficiently advance the bin Laden raid story enough through new reporting to challenge the established narrative. They also felt he didn’t utilize the expertise of the Washington bureau, which includes reporters who have spent years covering the search for the terrorist leader, the May 2011 raid and its aftermath — both in the Times’ news pages and in subsequent books.” http://huff.to/1Rnaqm2

— “Charlie Rose Receives 2015 Cronkite Award,” by TVNewser’s Mark Joyella: “’CBS This Morning’ co-host Charlie Rose received the Walter Cronkite Award for Excellence in Journalism in a ceremony at Arizona State University … The award … by ASU’s Cronkite School of Journalism … has previously gone to Tom Brokaw, Bob Schieffer, and William Paley.

“When the 2015 award was announced in June, Rose spoke of his respect for Cronkite[:] … ‘What I loved about his life was his passion for all things in life, including sailing. His journalism went far beyond the headlines to include the same range of curiosity I pursue from politics to people, from science to space, and always the story. Whether he was looking back into history or forward into space, he was the constant connection to our world.’” http://bit.ly/1Rn9yOc 8-min. tribute video http://bit.ly/1LnfHJ3

— Abby Huntsman made her debut as a news reporter during Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.” She also sat down with Elle to discuss her new role and what it’s like at Fox News to be a woman. Videohttp://bit.ly/1Lnft4o … Ellehttp://bit.ly/1PFRPTY

— “NYT VR … over one million Google Cardboard Viewers” — Release: “The project includes the distribution of more than one million Google Cardboard viewers to home delivery subscribers … the weekend of Nov. 7–8.” http://bit.ly/1KlR0c0

JILL HAZELBAKER to UBER — Uber official: “Hazelbaker [Snapchat’s V.P. of Communications and Public Policy] is joining Uber as V.P. of Policy and Communications, overseeing Corporate and Executive Communications globally, and Public Policy and Communications in The Americas. She will report to Rachel Whetstone, who oversees all global policy and communications …

“[Jill] will start in early November. Jill [a Google and McCain alumnus] has worked on … local, state and federal election campaigns and loves politics. She is excited to get back to her political roots on the Uber campaign.” Will move from L.A. to S.F.

— “Corey Owens (Uber’s first policy hire) — … has done … [a] transformative job as our head of Public Policy for the past two and a half years … now with ~70 U.S. jurisdictions with rideshare regulations and several internationally … Corey is eager to take those lessons — and those he has from his days as a union organizer and early Facebook Public Policy employee in D.C. — as an adviser to other early-stage companies in regulated industries, with a focus on state and local politics.”

— David Plouffe, Uber board member: “We’re enormously grateful for everything that Corey has done for Uber … ride-sharing regulations passed … for the benefit of riders and drivers everywhere.” … Joel Kaplan,Facebook V.P. of Public Policy: “First at Facebook and then at Uber [Corey has] helped shape how a generation of innovative companies interact with governments.”

VALLEY TALK: USA Today 1A tease, “Millions sour on Apple Music: 11 million tried service, only 6.5 million kept it.” Money section — tech columnist Jefferson Graham in Laguna Beach, Calif.: “Apple Music has convinced 6.5 million users to pay … It now has 15 million total users, [Apple CEO Tim] Cook at The Wall Street Journal’s WSJ.D Live. … [T]he rest of that total are those using the free trial. Rival Spotify, in business since 2008, has 20 million paying subscribers.” http://usat.ly/1LDpI2L

SPORTS BLINK: “Alex Ovechkin reaches milestone in Capitals win over Calgary: He recorded his 900th career point.” http://wapo.st/1PzFgKR

TRANSITIONS: Matt Gerson, a prominent entertainment industry voice in D.C. (also admired for creating Tracy’s Kids — a charity that helps kids with cancer), is leaving Universal Music after a twenty year run.

FIRST LOOK — “[Matthew] DeLuca Joins Engage as VP of Digital Strategy” — Forthcoming release: “Matt brings nearly a decade of … experience from the [RNC] to Edelman where he started.” http://bit.ly/1LDPpQw

TOM RYAN retires at Ryan, Mackinnon, Vasapoli & Berzok, LLP: “I’m looking forward to more time for travel and adventure with my wife Annemarie, more time with my young grandchildren and … hands-on volunteering. John Dingell is the gold standard for Congress, and I will always cherish the privilege of serving as his Chief Counsel to the Energy and Commerce Committee.” http://bit.ly/1XjdIus

OUT AND ABOUT: The Motion Picture Association of America hosted an advance screening last night of the new film “Spotlight” about the Boston Globe’s Pulitzer Prize winning investigative team’s work to uncover the sex abuse scandal in the Catholic Church. The movie stars Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Liev Schrieber (as Marty Baron, now WashPost executive editor), and opens Nov. 6. Trailerhttp://bit.ly/1GhGPds

SPOTTED: Maureen Dowd, Annie Linskey, Susan Milligan, Matt Viser, Mary Ann Akers, Michael Isikoff, Dana Milbank, Laura Nichols, Patrick Kilcur, Ben Sheffner, Daniel Calingaert, Adrienne Watson, John Arundel.

ENGAGED: Dan Conston — an alum of American Action Network, Roskam and McCain, and principal of Conston Communications — to Kara Genderson. He popped the question during a hike in Great Falls, followed by a dinner at Daikaya, where they had their first date. Pic http://bit.ly/1MDDja4

WEDDINGS — Marie Vulaj and Jarrett Ray married last weekend in New York City at the Church of St. Agnes — followed by a procession through Grand Central Station, led by an Albanian drummer. The bride is the director of nonprofit and corporate relations at ALEC. The groom is the online fundraising director at the RNC. They met while working on Gov. Bob McDonnell campaign. Pic http://bit.ly/1jA2XFT

— Former Rick Perry and 2010 Meg Whitman campaign videographer, Ben Price, now with Johnson Strategies, was married near the Cima volcano in the middle of the Mojave desert, to Victoria Haddad , an elementary school teacher in Austin. SPOTTED: Rob Johnson, Drew Florio, Travis Considine. Pichttp://bit.ly/1MAJkUM

BIRTHDAYS: Megan Smith, White House’s United States C.T.O. (hat tip: Hilary Rosen) … Tina Andreadis (h/t Robert Barnett) … Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is 66 … Edith Gregson … Cate Martel … Brian Doory … Ron Litman … Kim Hart Jonson, press secretary at the FCC … Lindsay Curren … Lauren H. Waldron … Sam Hiersteiner of New Profit and a Glover Park Group alum … Linda Nguyen … Whitey Ford … Mike Fazzino, a ONE alum … Jamie Novogrod … David Brunton … Jonathan Poe … Mandy Fletcher Fraher … Jason Czerwiec … Politico’s Hannah Edwards …

… Courtney Lukitsch , principal at Gotham PR … Anna Schecter Zigler … Alison Baker … actress Joyce Randolph is 91 … author Ursula K. Le Guin is 86 … Manfred Mann is 75 … Judge Judy Sheindlin is 73 … LaTanya Richardson Jackson is 66 … Charlotte Caffey (The Go-Go’s) is 62 … movie director Catherine Hardwicke is 60 … actress-author Carrie Fisher is 59 … Steve Lukather (Toto) is 58 … Kim Kardashian is 35 … actress Charlotte Sullivan is 32 … actor Aaron Tveit (tuh-VAYT’) is 32 (h/ts AP)

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