POLITICO Playbook: SABATO’S FIRST 2016 ‘CRYSTAL BALL’: 7 swingiest states — 96% in WSJ poll see racial disturbances this summer — JON KARL in Air Force One cockpit — WILLIE GEIST is 40

LARRY SABATO’S FIRST 2016 “CRYSTAL BALL” PREDICTIONS for Politico — With Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley: “40 of 50 states have voted for the same candidate in all four elections since 2000 … [There are] just seven super-swingy states: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which backed Bush and Obama twice each, and Iowa and New Hampshire, which have voted Democratic in three of the last four elections. … For the Democrats, a victory in 2016 entails zero expansion of the blue map, merely the limiting of blue-to-red transformations.

“Republicans must hold all their usual states plus find a way to stitch together an additional 64 electoral votes, or 79 if they can’t hold North Carolina. To do this, the GOP candidate will have to come close to sweeping the toss-ups under most scenarios-a difficult task. … It is possible … that any new Republican path to Electoral College victory will wend through the whiter-than-average industrial Midwest, but as of now it’s more likely to expect the GOP’s electoral map to look much like George W. Bush’s narrow route to the White House-a solid South, rural Midwest and Rocky Mountain majority.” http://politi.co/1GSsTTs

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By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com), and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

FUTURE OF NEWS — “Campaign Coverage via Snapchat Could Shake Up the 2016 Elections,” by Jonathan Mahler on NYT Business Day front: “A company known for enabling teenagers in various states of undress to send disappearing selfies to each other is getting into politics. And with well over 100 million users, a huge swath of whom are in the United States and between the ages of 18 and 31, its potential to shake up the next election is considerable. … Snapchat is going a step further: It is creating its own content. This is something social platforms have generally been reluctant to do for the simple reason that it’s difficult. And expensive.” With cameos by Dan Pfeiffer and Tim Miller: http://nyti.ms/1Phm0NE

TV TONIGHT — ABC’s Jonathan Karl on Air Force One: “Karl visits the rarely-seen cockpit of AF1 from the highly-secure hangar at Joint Base Andrews. AF1 Commander Col. David Banholzer, the 14th presidential pilot in history, and co-pilot Lt. Col. Tom O’Boyle speak about the qualifications and personal demands of flying the leader of the free world. They also address evolving threats to the plane’s security, including the proliferation of drones and use of lasers.”

— In the cockpit, co-pilot Lt. Col. Tom O’Boyle to Karl: “Every movie, they go after Air Force One. Whether it’s a TV show or it’s ‘Iron Man,’ they’re always trying to blow up Air Force One, which is a little concern to me because this is my day-to-day job, but in the real world he is very well protected.” PICS: http://abcn.ws/1F0Vfxo … Jon in the tug pulling the mammoth Boeing 747 into hangar http://abcn.ws/1GURU3b

GRIM FORECAST — “U.S. Split Along Racial Lines on Backlash Against Police, Poll Finds,” by WSJ’s Janet Hook: “Americans are bracing for a summer of racial disturbances around the country, such as those that have wracked Baltimore, with African Americans and whites deeply divided about why the urban violence has occurred, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found. A resounding 96% of adults surveyed said it was likely there would be additional racial disturbances this summer, a signal that Americans believe Baltimore’s recent problems aren’t a local phenomenon but instead are symptomatic of broader national problems.” http://on.wsj.com/1DWYIaz

SNEAK PEEK — Sunday’s upcoming NYT Magazine cover: “’Our demand is simple: stop killing us.’ The making of a new civil rights movement,” by Jay Caspian Kang: “Since Aug. 9, 2014, when Officer Darren Wilson of the Ferguson Police Department shot and killed Michael Brown, 18 years old, [Deray] Mckesson and a core group of other activists have built what is almost certainly the most formidable American protest movement of the 21st century to date.” http://nyti.ms/1zrEskB See the cover. http://bit.ly/1IEW1zR

TOP TALKER — Upshot story is N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, “Change of Address Offers A Pathway Out of Poverty: Study Finds Surprises on Upward Mobility — Worst Odds Found in Baltimore,” by David Leonhardt, Amanda Cox and Claire Cain Miller: “Among the nation’s 100 largest counties, the one where children face the worst odds of escaping poverty is the city of Baltimore, the study [by two Harvard professors] found. … Arlington County is very good for income mobility for children in poor families. It is better than about 81 percent of counties. …

“Raj Chetty, one of the study’s authors, has presented the findings to members of the Obama administration, as well as to Hillary … Clinton and Jeb Bush, both of whom have signaled that mobility will be central themes of their 2016 presidential campaigns.” http://nyti.ms/1EQHwXX … See the study. http://bit.ly/1brg1IQ

— NYT Quotation of the Day — Raj Chetty, an author of a study that suggests geography plays a large role in determining which children escape poverty: “The data show we can do something about upward mobility. Every extra year of childhood spent in a better neighborhood seems to matter.”

DEEP DIVE — JEFFREY TOOBIN in The New Yorker, “The Milwaukee Experiment: What can one prosecutor do about the mass incarceration of African-Americans?”: “The events in Baltimore last week drew, at least in part, on a sense there that black people have paid an undue price for the crackdown on crime. Since 1980, Maryland’s prison population has tripled, to about twenty-one thousand, and, as in Wisconsin, there is a distressing racial disparity among inmates. The population of Maryland is about thirty per cent black; the prisons and local jails are more than seventy per cent black.” http://nyr.kr/1bV4dPE

DRIVING THE WEEK — GOP field grows: Fiorina, Carson, Huckabee launch today and tomorrow — AP’s Steve Peoples: “Former technology executive Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are set to launch … on Monday, each with the potential to help the Republican Party win over a more diverse group of supporters in 2016.” http://yhoo.it/1IEPRQa Huckabee announces tomorrow in Hope, Ark.

— KATIE COURIC will interview Carly this afternoon at 2:45 p.m. ET on yahoo.com.

— “Cotton, Rubio face defeat on Iran,” by Burgess Everett: “Republican leaders are preparing to clamp down on Sen. Tom Cotton’s efforts to derail a bipartisan compromise on legislation giving Congress review power over a nuclear deal with Iran, clearing the way for it to be passed this week.” http://politi.co/1Pgg5bC

WHAT IOWA IS READING — Des Moines Register, dominant story on p. 1A, “SEEKING VOTES? STOP FOR PIZZA: ‘PIZZA RANCH CIRCUIT’ HAS BECOME A STAPLE OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES,” by Josh Hafner (online: “To scarf up Iowa caucus votes, Pizza Ranch a near-must”): “The down-home, Western-themed restaurants offer a microcosm of the caucuses’ retail-heavy politics … scarf an all-you-can-eat buffet for $10.51. More than 70 Pizza Ranches operate across Iowa, mostly in small towns. All offer a free meeting space to anyone who signs up and buys some pizza, making them the go-to venue for campaigns light on cash.”

— 2016 stats: “First candidate to visit a Pizza Ranch: … Rubio, on Oct. 28, 2014, in Pella. … Most Pizza Ranches visited: … Huckabee, who has visited three locations. … Most-visited Pizza Ranch: Cedar Rapids, with two visits by the end of last week.”

— “ABOUT THE ILLUSTRATION: Pictured are the five potential presidential candidates who have visited Pizza Ranches in 2015: Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.” http://dmreg.co/1GUNRUF

SECRETARY OF THE WORLD — Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday took a tour of Nairobi National Park and the Sheldrick Elephant Orphanage located in it after arriving in Nairobi, Kenya, to learn about wildlife conservation efforts and in advance of a series of government meetings today. While there, he fed several orphaned baby elephants and snapped a selfie. His selfie: http://bit.ly/1bSTKnI Companion shot (credit: State Department Photo): http://bit.ly/1caFZS6 … More pix from Kerry’s travels: www.flickr.com/statephotos

**A message from the National Retail Federation: Retail is Small Business. In fact, no other industry has more small businesses — 98 percent of retailers are small companies with fewer than 50 employees. Come celebrate the entrepreneurial spirit of retail at Retail’s Night Out, Wednesday, 5 to 9 p.m. at CityCenterDC. Details: http://nrf.com/rno **

OUT MAY 12: “Expect a full media blitz on former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell’s new book, “The Great War of Our Time’ … Morell provided advance copies of the book — a look at CIA’s fight against Islamic extremism — to Presidents Obama and Bush. Morrell praises Bush and Obama for their aggressive approach to taking on al Qa’ida. But he also takes on Congressional Republicans and the Obama White House on Benghazi (and he even criticizes himself on the issue). He challenges Senate Democrats and the media on their approach to the Agency’s post-9/11 treatment of detainees and Vice President Cheney’s office on its handling of pre-Iraq war intelligence.” $20.52 pre-order on Amazon : http://amzn.to/1FJZEnj

— WashPost A1, below fold, “CIA veteran: U.S. misjudged Arab Spring, al-Qaeda revival,” by Greg Miller, with Julie Tate (online: “Former CIA official cites agency’s failure to see al-Qaeda’s rebound”): “Senior U.S. intelligence officials have previously acknowledged failures to anticipate the Arab Spring movement, which toppled governments in the Middle East and North Africa. But the former official, Michael ­Morell, wrote that the CIA compounded those errors with optimistic assessments that the ­upheaval would prove devastating to al-Qaeda.” http://wapo.st/1FJUgAv

SCOOP — WSJ A1, “U.S. Will Change Stance on Secret Phone Tracking,” by Devlin Barrett: “The Justice Department will start revealing more about the government’s use of secret cellphone tracking devices and has launched a wide-ranging review into how law-enforcement agencies deploy the technology.” http://on.wsj.com/1dHfnsi

2 TOUGH STORIES FOR OBAMACARE — USA Today 1A today, below fold: “ER visits surge despite Obamacare: Not enough doctors to handle the newly insured, experts say” http://usat.ly/1K62SAv … WashPost Sat. A1, top of col. 1, “Crisis for state health markets: Nearly half of the 17 exchanges, plus D.C.’s, face financial crunch.” http://wapo.st/1I9plPP

HOT IN HILLARYLAND — WashPost A1, second story, “Mining mogul’s ties to Clintons under scrutiny: Relationship, forged in charity work, has had benefits for both,” by WashPost’s Tom Hamburger, Rosalind S. Helderman and Anu Narayanswamy (online: “The Clintons, a luxury jet and their $100 million donor from Canada”) : “Bill Clinton was planning a charity trip to Latin America and needed a big plane.

For Frank Giustra, … this was an opportunity.” http://wapo.st/1EKCKtZ

TWEET DU JOUR — @HillaryClinton: “Mother’s Day gift idea: a call from Hillary. Sign up for a chance to surprise a mom you love”: http://bit.ly/1PgfVko

TRAIL MIX — “G.O.P. Hopefuls Now Aiming to Woo the Middle Class,” by Jeremy W. Peters on NYT A1: “The last three men to win the Republican nomination have been the prosperous son of a president (George W. Bush), a senator who could not recall how many homes his family owned (John McCain of Arizona; it was seven) and a private equity executive worth an estimated $200 million (Mitt Romney). The candidates hoping to be the party’s nominee in 2016 are trying to create a very different set of associations. … Harmed by the perception that they favor the wealthy at the expense of middle-of-the-road Americans, the party’s contenders are each trying their hardest to get across what the elder George Bush once inelegantly told recession-battered voters in 1992: ‘Message: I care.’” http://nyti.ms/1GURpX0

FIRST LOOK — America Rising is releasing a sequel to its “Trustworthy?” video (which received more than a million views in less than a week), called “Unethical.” America Rising’s Colin Reed emails Playbook: “The rules Hillary Clinton broke are the ones she herself wrote in order to prevent conflicts of interest at the State Department. For more than three decades, the Clintons have lived at the nexus of money and politics, and the ongoing scandals over foreign and undisclosed donations are just the latest in a long series of unethical actions.” 1-min. videohttp://bit.ly/1DWZNz3

O’MALLEY TO ANNOUNCE IN BALTIMORE — “With little choice and under scrutiny, O’Malley embraces Baltimore tenure,” by WashPost’s John Wagner: “When Martin O’Malley makes his expected announcement for president later this month, he plans to do it in riot-scarred Baltimore. ‘I wouldn’t think of announcing anyplace else,’ O’Malley … said Sunday … on … ‘Meet the Press.” http://wapo.st/1I8s8Ja

MIKE BARNICLE in The Daily Beast, “When Marilyn Mosby’s Cousin Was Killed”: “When Marilyn Mosby, state’s attorney for Baltimore city, stood before cameras that introduced her to the world Friday as she declared that six Baltimore cops would face felony charges in the death of Freddie Gray, she arrived with personal knowledge of how the streets can swallow young black lives.” http://thebea.st/1R38qBc

BEN SMITH, “Britain’s 2015 Election Pits Newspapers Against The Web”: “Britain votes [this] Thursday, and … [t]he ferocious conservative press has devoted six months to trying to destroy [Labour leader Ed Miliband’s] image, to painting him as weird and effete and unlikable. They do this with a bluntness unimaginable even in the most aggressive American print publications … Despite the newspaper bombardment, Miliband’s popularity has been spiking upward, and his favorable/unfavorable numbers are the most improved of any party leader’s. … [T]he digital Miliband is a bit easier to like.” http://bzfd.it/1bqylBL

DATA DU JOUR — “’Mission Accomplished’ Was 12 Years Ago … What’s Been The Cost Since Then?” by HuffPost’s Jesse Rifkin: “In the years since ‘Mission Accomplished,’ some 149,053 civilians have been killed, compared to about 7,412 prior to the speech … Since the speech, 4,637 military members in the Iraq War coalition led by the U.S. have lost their lives, versus 172 prior … As of September 2014, total U.S. expenditures on the war in Iraq totaled $815.8 billion, about 93 percent of which was spent after 2003. That cost is more than 16 times the Bush administration’s original projection.” http://huff.to/1IDB5t4

MEDIAWATCH — “The New York Times Will Hit One Million Digital Subscribers Soon. But Does It Matter?” by Re/code’s Edmund Lee: “The New York Times is poised to hit 1 million paying digital subscribers sometime this summer, CEO Mark Thompson said during the company’s earnings call last week — a significant figure that’s as much a psychological milestone as a financial one. … The problem, however, is that despite those gains, the Times’ digital revenues — both circulation and advertising — account for little more than a fifth of the paper’s total sales and won’t in any way come close to making up for its once fat print profits.” http://on.recode.net/1caFtmY

— “Tina Brown’s special issue,’ by Capital New York’s Joe Pompeo: “Brown’s magic is no longer a prescient, finger-on-the-pulse approach to magazine making … [but now] an ability to convene powerful, impressive, interesting people and to get them gabbing about powerful, impressive, interesting things-ideally in front of audiences willing to pay a lot more to be in their real live company than they’d pay to read about them in print.” http://bit.ly/1zrGm4P

WEEKEND WEDDINGS: #BacaBash2015 — Former Miss D.C. 2009 Jen Corey wed Joshua Baca, SVP at DDC Public Affairs, this weekend in Old Town Alexandria. The couple exchanged heartfelt vows outside at John Carlyle Park and finished strong with a reception at the Carlyle Club. Corey leads business development for McChrystal Group headed by former Gen. Stanely McCrystal. Baca was National Coalitions Director for Romney 2012 and a staffer for Rep. Heather Wilson before joining DDC. The couple will honeymoon in the Greek isles and Turkey. SPOTTED : Sara Fagen, Gen. McChrystal and his wife Annie, Ed Gillespie, Jim and Brenda Gianiny, Charlie and Lisa Spies, Tennessee congressional candidate Grant Starrett, Monument Realty’s Michael Darby and his wife Ashley, Courtney Johnson, selected by RSLC to head up Right Women Right Now initiative, and USGLC’s Derek Gianino. Pic: http://bit.ly/1Pged2G

— Ashley Nerz and Jimmy Levey: Nerz is manager of corporate comms for LinkedIn and a Fox News comms alum. Fellow Richmond Spider Levey works at Basswood Capital Management. They got married on Saturday at the Holy Trinity Church and Wychmere beach club in Harwich Port, Mass., on Cape Cod. Special moments included a blessing by Nerz’s grandfather Gen. Benjamin Pellegrini and the NYPD Emerald Society Pipes and drums band playing bagpipes and shipping up to Boston with their wedding band. Pic: http://bit.ly/1KGkoME

SPORTS BLINK — “Texas the front line on high school ECG debate,” by AP’s Jim Vertuno: “Spurred by the deaths of teenagers … who die each year by sudden cardiac arrest, Texas lawmakers are pushing to make their state the first to require public high school athletes to undergo electrocardiogram testing. Those pushing for the change, including some of the parents of children who have died, say testing is relatively cheap and simple, and that it could save lives. … But opponents of mandatory screening … question its effectiveness, saying it would lead to thousands of false-positives each year, which would lead to further, more expensive testing that isn’t necessary.” http://yhoo.it/1GStkx8

— “Tiger Woods, Lindsey Vonn break up,” by ESPN’s Bob Harig: “Tiger Woods and Lindsey Vonn announced in separate releases Sunday that they have ended their relationship of nearly three years. Both called the breakup mutual. … [Vonn said:] ‘I will always cherish the memories that we’ve created together … Unfortunately, we both lead incredibly hectic lives that force us to spend a majority of our time apart.’ … ‘I have great admiration, respect and love for Lindsey and I’ll always cherish our time together,’ Woods said.” http://es.pn/1R381yK Vonn’s Facebook post: http://on.fb.me/1ORVTlq Tiger’s announcement: http://bit.ly/1dGiP6q

— “Pay-per-view problems pop up prior to Mayweather-Pacquiao fight,” by ESPN’s Darren Rovell: “Reports of fans having trouble ordering the fight through their pay-per-view providers filled social media in the hours leading up to the fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao on Saturday night in Las Vegas. … Fans reported issues with some of the biggest providers, including Optimum, DirecTV, Charter, Comcast, Time Warner and AT&T. Problems ranged from issues with ordering, to pixilated screens, to screens going to black after the broadcast had started.” http://es.pn/1bT4q5D

— USA Today, top of 1A, “Live streaming video apps hit boxing where it hurts: Many watch free via Periscope, Meerkat” http://usat.ly/1DObZki

“With Wizards and Capitals success, Ted Leonsis is basking in a double dose of glory,” by WashPost’s Dave Sheinin: “[He is] D.C.’s man of the hour, the owner of two franchises in the second round of the playoffs simultaneously for the first time in their history.” http://wapo.st/1K6cOdo

STATE VISIT — Notables visiting D.C.: Mark Johnson, Arizona State University’s senior director for media relations and strategic communications, having breakfast today at Old Ebbitt Grill with USA Today’s David Jackson.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Chris Bodenner, a senior editor at the Atlantic and formerly of Andrew Sullivan’s Daily Dish (h/t Becca Glover Watkins)

BIRTHDAYS: George Will … Ellen Qualls … Polson Kenneth, ABC News Senior Editorial Producer at World News Tonight, is 32 … Politico’s Erin Mershon (h/ts Olivia Petersen) … HuffPost’s Eliot Nelson … Megan Kopf Stackhouse, VP of PR at NBC’s Today Show, celebrating down under with Savannah for Today’s trip to Sydney (h/t Maggie Steenland) … Todd Stern, Todd Stern, State Department special envoy for climate change (h/t Jon Haber) … CAA’s Darnell Strom, a Bill Clinton and DNC alum … Mitchell Rivard, deputy chief of staff to Rep. Dan Kildee, who celebrated his birthday early on Friday with drinks at Baby Wale and with his boyfriend Scott Zumwalt at Le Dip today (h/t Robert) … Artists and Athletes’ Steve Ross … Allison Bormel, comms. director for Rep. Eric Swalwell (h/t Aaron Ament) … MSNBC’s Kathy O’Hearn, alum of CNN, ABC News and Newsweek Daily Beast … Christina Heimerdinger, regional digital director for Generation Opportunity and Engage alum … Liam Prince, Jonathan’s son … AP’s David Pace …

… Shira Toeplitz Center , political editor at Boston Globe, a Roll Call alum … Travis Mason … Natalie Sabbath … Miles Hansen … Joe Harper … Jay Timmons … Katy Quinn of the National Security Council and Adam Smith alum … Derya Agis … John R. Gagain Jr., president and CEO of National Association of Manufacturers and chairman of Washington Humane Society … former NY assemblyman Richard Brodsky … Akmal Ali of Catalyst Partners, a DHS alum … Hosni Mubarak, former president of Egypt, is 87 … Katherine Jackson, matriarch of the Jackson musical family, is 85 … Pia Zadora is 63 … violinist Soozie Tyrell (Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band) is 58 … Randy Travis is 56 … Will Arnett is 45 … Mike Dirnt (Green Day) is 43 … ports reporter Erin Andrews is 37 … Lance Bass (‘N Sync) is 36 … actress Amara Miller is 15 (h/ts AP)

** A message from the National Retail Federation: In honor of Small Business Week, the National Retail Federation invites you to celebrate the cultural, social and economic benefits that retail adds to life in our nation’s capital. Not only is retail the nation’s largest private-sector employer — supporting one in four U.S. jobs; 42 million working Americans, contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP — but retail also has more small businesses (under 100 employees) than any other industry in the country. So as we celebrate small businesses, and all they add to our lives and the economy, we should also celebrate retail.

Join us for Retail’s Night Out on Wednesday from 5 to 9 p.m. at the Park at CityCenterDC — including a night of shopping with local merchants and national brands, live music, and local food trucks. RSVP here: http://nrf.com/rno**

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