Some Quick Thoughts on Syria
“Animal Assad” has been a phrase that has generated a lot of buzz since reports of chemical weapons used against Syrians in the city of Douma surfaced. Many of the reported 60 killed were children, making this yet another instance where children are not only victims of war, but also used as pawns in order to drum up more war. I already laid out my thoughts on the chemical weapons attack itself in a lengthy Facebook post, so I will not repeat any of that in this piece. There have been many developments since the reported attack, with a lot of information being put out there. All of it can be confusing, so I hope to shed some light on what is being said regarding Syria by the psychopaths looking to destabilize it, and what I think will happen next.
First, let’s take a look at what the major players in Syria are saying and doing in response to the chemical weapons attack:
Syria
The Syrian government has denied the allegations, saying that the accusations are an attempt to halt their advance in Douma. It should be noted that the Syrian government has called for a United Nations investigation into the chemical weapons attack, and that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is preparing to send a fact finding mission to Syria after receiving a request from the Syrian and Russian governments.
Russia
The Russian U.N. Ambassador warned of “grave repercussions” if the US government carries out an attack on Syrian government forces. This is not good since there are reports that Russia has put its Black Sea Fleet on “Combat Alert”. Journalist Pepe Escobar noted that the Stavka, or the high command of the Russian Armed Forces had a key meeting on Sunday. Russia is clearly taking these escalations as a military threat, since any attack in Syria has the possibility of harming Russian troops stationed there. Russia has submitted a resolution to the UNSC in an attempt to resolve this crisis. It seems that the Security Council meeting didn’t go so well, with Russia and the US clashing over competing resolutions. Speaking of Murica…
United States
The response from various officials in the US has been rather threatening. President Trump has referred to Syria’s president Assad as “Animal Assad” with the Tweeter in Chief saying that “President Putin, Russia, and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad” and that there would be a “Big price to pay” and a decision on what to come next within “24 to 48 hours”. It is worth noting that Trump has cancelled a recent trip around Latin America to supposedly concentrate further on managing this crisis (and not because his long time attorney’s house has been raided by the FBI). The usual Capitol Hill war hawks are beating their chests over Syria, and our favorite partners-in-war crimes John McCain and Lindsey Graham were predictably all over this. McCain said that Trump’s statement that we would leave Syria “emboldened” Assad, while his buddy Lindsey subsequently said that Syria’s entire air force needs to be destroyed. The US has also submitted its own resolution to the UNSC, but as mentioned earlier, the UNSC meeting seemed to be largely unsuccessful in coming to any sort of resolution going forward.
Israel
Israel responded to the chemical attack in Douma by attacking Syria, specifically targeting a Syrian air base in Homs province, which killed 14 people. US officials have confirmed the Israeli attack, but Israel itself rarely confirms attacks inside of Syria. The Israeli Foreign ministry has put out a statement condemning the attacks and accusing Syria of possessing chemical weapons while continuing to produce them. Gilad Erdan, the current number 2 to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in the Likud party, called on the US to attack the Assad regime in Syria.
Iran
Iran issued a condemnation of the chemical weapons attack in Syria, but also denied the participation of the Syrian government in the attacks. They pointed out that “While the Syrian army has the upper hand in the war against armed terrorists, it is not logical for them to use chemical weapons.” It is also worth noting that four Iranian fighters were killed in the Israeli strike on the Syrian air base.
Turkey
There seems to be mixed signals coming out of Turkey, with government spokesperson Bekir Bozdag issuing a condemnation of the attack while calling on the OPCW to investigate the incident. Meanwhile Ibrahim Kalin, special adviser to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a more aggressive statement, saying “The Syrian regime will have to pay the price for the attacks carried out at different times in different regions in Syria,”.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the position of the Kingdom was that the responsible parties that were involved had to be brought to justice. Meanwhile, Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman himself said that Saudi Arabia could be involved in military action inside of Syria, saying “If our alliance with our partners requires it, we will be present,”.
Europe
Britain’s U.N. ambassador said that she would prefer to start with a “proper investigation”, but the Foreign Office said that an investigation should come with assurances of a “strong and robust international response”. Another statement said that “…a full range of options should be on the table”. French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe called for a “strong, united and resolute” response from the international community and said that allies of the Syrian regime bore “particular responsibility in this massacre”.
What Now?
One thing that cannot be dismissed from any analysis of the Syrian conflict is looking at the bigger picture. Everything else that is happening in Syria cannot be separated from the chemical weapons attack in Douma or the response from the international community. First, today’s meeting of the UNSC failed to pass three resolutions, and all major parties instead engaged in a trading of verbal barbs at one another. At the moment, diplomacy seems to be failing. There is a report from RT suggesting that a meeting of top Russian and NATO officials could take place next week, perhaps breathing some air into the diplomatic process. With that being said, it is impossible to predict what will happen next. There are so many outside powers with differeing interests in Syria that no clear cut path to a resolution exists. What can we know about possible escalation in Syria that some are calling the start of World War III?
If the US attacks Syria, it will most likely be a small, perhaps one time missile strike similar to the attack last year in Khan Sheikhoun. The US has roughly 2,000 “advisors” on the ground in Syria, with 5,000 troops deployed in neighboring Iraq, and a possible 2,500 troops being deployed to Kuwait. Those troop numbers would not allow the US to launch or sustain any significant ground campaign inside Syria. For the most part, the US has relied on the Kurds to act as their ground troops, while providing air support. This is a problem right now considering the Kurds are busy fighting the Turks since Erdogan decided to invade Northern Syria, taking the city of Afrin and threatening the Kurdish enclave of Manbij. The US could launch an attack with the help of allies, specifically Britain and France, who were part of the trio of war criminals who bombed Libya into submission. Britain would look at intervention in Syria as retaliation for the supposed Russian poisoning of former double agent Sergei Srkipal while France sees this opportunity to gain further international clout and flex its muscles while also putting the screws to Russia.
Israel’s strike into Syria could mean one of two things. First, Israel doesn’t seem to want any sustained military conflict with Assad. Israel has made it clear that their greatest concern is the establishment of an Iranian long term presence in Syria, with their defense minister saying that they would have preferred ISIS in Syria instead of Iran. Also, a sustained Israeli attack on Syria would put them at increased risk of conflict with Russia, which is something that Israel is desperately trying to avoid. Given that Israel is facing international condemnation over their massacre of Palestinians in Gaza, and the ongoing corruption investigation of Benjamin Netanyahu, this seems like a distraction and a weak attempt to rally his base for political support.
Turkey has a major role to play in whether the US can mount any effective ground operation, given that it is destroying the de facto ground army of the US in Syria, the Kurds. As mentioned earlier, Turkish officials have delivered mixed signals regarding their response to the chemical attacks. On the one hand, Turkey has been working closer with Russia and Iran to resolve the crisis in Syria, with multiple summits taking place between the three countries. On the other hand, Turkey is likely angry that the Syrian government is willing to provide assistance to the Syrian Kurds in their fight against the Turks. France has also threatened to send troops to assist the Kurdish troops in Manbij, which further risks confrontation between NATO members.
Russia will look to shore up its defenses in Syria and continue to pursue a diplomatic settlement through international organizations. Russia’s sense of urgency cannot be dismissed or taken lightly. This new Cold War of sorts taking place between Russia and the West has caused a series of diplomatic escalations, with any strikes in Syria being another piece of straw on the camels back. Vladislav Surkov, a longtime aid to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a recent piece for Global Affairs, said that “Russia’s epic journey toward the West” is over and the country is bracing for a new era of “geopolitical loneliness”. Russia sees Syria the same way they saw Crimea, and Western attempts to destabilize those areas with Russian military bases are considered a direct threat to Russia’s national security. Russia has made it clear that they will not let Assad fall, and will most likely fight to prevent that from happening.
I don’t know what will happen in Syria next. Anyone who tells you they know what will happen next is lying to you. The only thing I wanted to provide with this article was to piece together the many stories coming out in the media and share some thoughts on what I think will happen next. What is happening in Syria should concern the entire world. It is infuriating that so many people have been killed in this conflict, which seems to be a geopolitical jousting match of global and regional powers. This is why this war needs to end, and people worldwide, especially those people who reside in countries involved in Syria, need to demonstrate to their respective governments that further escalation in Syria will not be tolerated.
How many more lives need to be lost because of Geopolitics?
