There are two kinds of Netflix content: must-see and wallpaper.

In our house, 23 Hours to Kill was must-see. But someday, someone, will just want to ‘watch some standup’ and for them, Jerry Seinfeld will just be wallpaper. Chappelle, for us, was wallpaper.

Some forms of content, Tiger King will be must-see and never wallpaper. Some forms of content, holiday movies, will be wallpaper and never must-see.

Crossing the ‘linear line’ of single-channel-single-time programming, allows Netflix to offer must-see and wallpaper programming. Prior to crossing, both HBO and HGTV did a good job at what they intended to be.


One red flag is when someone says, ‘this time is different’. The danger is that this is a mental shortcut that leads us to the wrong part of a maze. It implies that the things we know-or-knew are no longer relevant to the current discussion.

But sometimes this time is different, is true.

This came up in the Super Pumped book about Uber. What made 2008-start-ups different from 1998-start-ups were new tools. Specifically, author Mike Isaac points out; AWS servers, consumer’s online habits (half of all homes paid for broadband), and the iPhone. …

“Jeopardy! James” Holzhauer won a total of 2.7M dollars during his appearances on Jeopardy!. It was a financial and cultural success as barflies asked each other, have you seen this guy?

During the week his run ended, Holzhauer appeared on the Wharton Moneyball podcast to talk about his approach to the show as well as what it is like to be a sports bettor. While his interview was good, this part stood out the most:

A stunner of a Daily Double OR “someone suggested they could make the questions really easy and any advantage I had is negated and…

# ‘What did you do today?’

Sometimes I’m a liar. Not to people, but to myself. Adam Smith wrote that /man wants to be loved and to be lovely/. I interpret that to mean that we want people to see us well and to see ourselves well. Sometimes that means buying, sometimes that means doing, and sometimes that means finding the truth.

In Ryder Carroll’s Bullet Journal book he advices to log and track the things we do to find if what matters lines up with what we do. How close are those overlapping circles?

Ideally, in our Adam Smithian…

Supported by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path.

Emily Dufton spoke at Politics and Prose about her book, Grass Roots. Tyler Cowen blogged, “It is sure to make my best books of the year list, and if she had ten other books I would buy them all sight unseen.”

With marijuana investments growing, (That’s my trade, short Tesla, long potDanny Moses) we’ll look at pot and then parables.

In the 1860’s, marijuana was available at corner pharmacies and was used by new mothers to calm colicky babies. In 1886 Coca-Cola was born and would be…

“two person's holding smartphones” by rawpixel on Unsplash

Sponsored by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path.

Michael Munger has a new book out, Tomorrow 3.0 and he’s talking to people like Russ Robert and groups at Duke about the ideas on those pages. In his walk through the economic woods, Munger found a Chesterton Fence and wonders if it’s falling down.

It might be.

We might be transitioning from an age of middlemen to an age of sharing. Like with our study of Pixar, we should keep in mind that middlemen aren’t bad/stupid/unnecessary. They’re a product of the system. They exist because they were an…

“red cinema chair” by Felix Mooneeram on Unsplash

Pixar’s business success is a good lesson, but not for the reason you might expect. It’s a story with a happy ending but it’s a cautionary tale — this is everything that has to go right.

First a warning. There are no heroes in this book, only people. Some will appear wiser than others, but everyone was locally logical. The ‘dumbasses’ had succeeded while the times had changed. The ‘visionaries’ rode the winds of luck and skill.

We’ll draw mostly from Ed Catmull’s Creativity Inc. and Lawrence Levy’s To Pixar and Beyond. Catmull co-founded Pixar and still works there. Levy…

“teal sedan park beside street during daytime” by Alex Iby on Unsplash

Sponsored by Greenhaven Road Capital, finding value off the beaten path.

This talk, published in June 2015, was part of Richard Thaler’s book tour promotion for Misbehaving. Hal Varian, Chief Economist at Google, calls it “A wonderful new book.”

When asked about ‘Econs’ (a utility maximizing computational automaton — that doesn’t exist) and humans on the tour Thaler said, “You don’t get a representative sample of humanity at book talks.” This gets a good laugh and gives a good example of the sampling bias.

Varian said he’s a student of behavioral economics (BE) because he needs to be, “If you’re…

I saw this on Twitter from @drvox

If *something* happened tomorrow it wouldn’t surprise anyone. However, here’s how I’m thinking about this.

There’s a base rate for everything, writes Michael Mauboussin and Phillip Tetlock. What’s the base rate for *somethings* and how malleable is it? The base rate for sunrises is 100% and it’s impossible to change. The base rate for my morning coffee is also high — 90% — but tomorrow I could easily have tea. There’s a base rate for violence too, and that’s our best comparison.

What’s the ubiquity of this? Mark Buchanan writes, “When a forest…

Jack Vogel #61 Meb Faber Show

  • Intro and background to JV
  • - ‘Quant’ just means to use a computer to do calculations
  • - 920 the steps
  • . 1. The universe of usable stocks (filter out micro caps because they can’t scale)
  • . 2. Forensics accounting. Don’t catch a falling knife 🔪 — avoid stocks that are cheap for a reason. Be ok w/ getting rid of too much. Don’t own a turd.
  • . 3. Value, enterprise value. How much would it cost to buy the firm. (15:00)
  • . 4. Quality is like legs on a table. Examples might be free…


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