In Bibi’s Kindergarten
This is the first of a two part blog post. The second, which I plan to publish tomorrow, will analyze Obama’s UN Gambit.
During the last election campaign, Prime Minister Netanyahu launched a killer advertisement called Bibi’s Kindergarten. With it, he made his political rivals look unfit for serious office. As the talmudic saying goes, “he prophesied without knowing what he was prophesying.”
Within 48 hours after Donald Trump was elected President, numerous Ministers and Vice Ministers in Bibi’s government announced that this was a historic opportunity to annex Judea and Samaria. Not be outdone or miss a headline, many rank and file members of Knesset and the Likud party chimed in on radio and TV.
This was horribly hasty and irresponsible behavior. The day after, I called my friends Erez and Aviad, both keen analysts of Israeli politics to ask “why would you take such a risk of angering an outgoing president for some cheap headlines and fleeting domestic political gain?” This was childish behavior, befitting a kindergarten of kids clamoring for a teacher’s attention. We all scratched our collective heads. Today, 25 days before Obama leaves office, the annexation chorus continues and we are left banging our heads against the wall. (I would add that the need to deal with Amona now brought on by a combination of myopia and stubbornness was poor timing, and has now boomeranged but is beside the point).
However, it turns out that the lack of mature political thinking did not end there. When you think you are alone at the top for too long and you are the smartest guy in the room, you can be dragged down by those surrounding you who’s opinion you do not value. Worse, you may develop a self-perception of indestructibility. Bibi made three critical mistakes here. The seeds of the first one have been taking root for years: over the last many years, Bibi has hollowed out Israel’s Foreign Ministry. Not having a full time foreign minister who can build trust globally is a serious handicap when you need a diplomatic blitz. Worse, his troops in the Foreign Ministry were undoubtedly under-motivated after years of starvation.
He also has chosen to confront Obama head on. In diplomacy, as game theory goes, there are two very dangerous situations. The first occurs when one actor has nothing to lose. The second happens when he is holding a weapon or can choose an action that cannot be defeated. Obama held both of these advantages on Bibi. He is not being re-elected and his successor is a political enemy so he has nothing to lose. There was no need to preserve cordial relations for a like-minded successor. Moreover, he holds effectively a presidential vote and veto in the UN and Bibi holds no UN cards. Brilliant oratory accompanied by placard bombs at the General Assembly is no match for political clout over the 15 members of the Security Counsel.
Furthermore, that UN vote is uninfluenced by the US congress where Bibi and Israel have much support. Obama has already shown his willingness to ignore and override congress so this UN Gambit should have been no surprise. Bibi came insufficiently prepared to a poker match with Obama holding two aces! When you are overmatched, a direct confrontation is rarely the best option.
This was easy to see in advance which brings us to the third Netanyahu misstep. These aces were face up. Everyone saw it coming including Bibi. Bibi should have lined up the UK or someone else to veto the resolution or at least others who would vote against it. He didn’t. He did not line up our friends, business relationships and others around the world to bring pressure on governments from New Zealand to Russia with whom he deftly coordinated defense issues in Syria. Obama outmaneuvered him on the Ukraine even though Bibi should have (and does) a lot influence there. I think he did not use it because he has grown so comfortable defeating political foes and lecturing people, that he has forgotten the famous proverb בתחבולות תעשה לך מלחמה, or “conduct war in deceptive ways.” (proverbs ch. 24)
Israelis should not be sanguine about this. This is a large misstep, one born of government hubris and ministerial infantile behavior. You cannot taunt the President of the United States while he is still in the White House just like you can’t lecture him in the Oval Office. As I will describe in my second post tomorrow, Obama is not Snow White here. However, he is the President of The United States until January 20th and that accords him a lot of political power. And, when you are dealing with the President of the United States, especially one you believe to be hostile to Israel’s interests, I think it is fair to say that there were many wiser ways for the Israeli Government and its leader to conduct our affairs.
