Corbyn was always on thin ice—and now it’s cracking
To paraphrase a Twitter user: If only Jeremy Corbyn was as passionate during the referendum, as he is stubborn about his leadership. On late Monday afternoon, four days after the EU referendum, he addressed a crowd, saying he would refuse to stand down, despite two-thirds of his cabinet resigning, urging his resignation. The very same night, he faced a hostile Parliamentary Labour Party meeting.
The contrast of the events on Tuesday could not better illustrate his situation. For months, hostile MPs have been told to keep their mouth shut by MPs forcing their own mouths shut, in order to respect the 60% of Labour members who voted for Corbyn. Understanding this tension, Corbyn moved to become a broadchurch leader. He sought to reconcile a radical membership with a resistant parliamentary party. And for a while it worked.
That is, until it didn’t work. A number of events have stirred the pot: Benn’s suspension from the media after his speech advocating military action in Syria; Ken Livingstone’s appointment to Labour’s Defence Review; Corbyn’s quiescence on antisemitism in the party; and now his half-hearted effort to campaign for remaining in the EU. Labour MPs have had enough of what they consider a flaccid leader.
Allies say Corbyn’s victory in any future leadership election is guaranteed. They cite the number of members that support him, further encouraged by the masses attending demonstrations in London on issues of war and welfare. They overestimate his chances of survival.
The first area of weakness is in the Parliamentary Labour Party. In May 2015, Corbyn only managed to get through nominations in May 2015 by the patronage of MPs looking to ‘broaden the debate’.
The vast majority of the PLP never actively supported Corbyn. You can see this from the progress of nominations, from when they opened on the 9th of June, to when they closed on the 15th of June. Jeremy Corbyn only reached the number of candidates required for the ballot on the very last day, six days after Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendal had theirs, at which point Corbyn had only fourteen nominations.
After seeing the three favourites of the PLP secure their nominations, 68 MPs held back from making a decision. Only 43 would end up declaring for a candidate. Of those that declared, 22 MPs nominated Corbyn, 59% of which declared on the final day. They were the MPs that made the difference between Corbyn being on the ballot and not being on the ballot.
Assuming that these last-minute MPs are the only Corbyn-nominators who are not Corbyn-supporters, that puts the total number of Corbyn loyalists in the PLP at 23. If we restrict the number of Corbyn loyalists to everyone who supported Corbyn before Burnham, Cooper and Kendal secured their position on the ballot, Corbyn has 14 loyalists in the PLP. The number of MPs left in the Shadow Cabinet following the recent resignations falls between 14 and 23, so this seems to make sense.
In summary, Corbyn commands the support of somewhere between 6 and 11 per cent of the PLP.
However, the Leader of the Opposition probably won’t have to face his fellow parliamentary members, since he could automatically be placed on the ballot. And as Corbyn managed to get 60% of the vote in September 2015, his faction is relying on the Labour membership to renew his mandate.
They should not be so certain. Before the 2015 leadership election, Corbyn had no note-worthy experience in the offices of state, other than that of being an MP. The only criticism that could be laid at his feet was his worrying friendliness with Hamas and radical Left credentials. For many on the Left who supported him, this was either not a problem or not significant enough to warrant concern. (He was also widely criticised as being unelectable. It was a poor argument. Would it have made a difference if he were ‘electable’?)
Now, however, Corbyn has a whole year of experience that he shall be judged against. The significant number of opposing MPs will publicly pull apart and scrutinise his every action in every constituency across the country. Those closest to him in the Shadow Cabinet will recount their experiences with sombre faces and rheumy eyes. Opponents will stand up and say what they would have done if they had been leading the charge.
Those not paying the attention to Labour MPs would have had their perceptions changed by recent events. Had only three or four Shadow Cabinet ministers resigned, Corbyn’s refusal to step down would appear admirable. But after two-thirds of his cabinet resigns, it looks arrogant. It looks as if he cares more for his own career and himself than he does for the Party and for the good of the country. It looks totally contrary to his character.
All lies in stark contrast to the ten months prior to the EU referendum. Members of Parliament — who withheld doubts in hope of a better future — who held back airing their disagreements in public — who cooperated to the best of their ability with Corbyn — will break into public view and flood the airwaves with criticisms and recriminations, a culmination of months of pent-up angst and resentment.
Corbyn leads the PLP by accident, and is sustained by the milk of delusion — of everyone, not just himself. Unless he realises quickly that his position is not so secure, he might face an embarrassing fall.
