It’s not the lack of long range strike that makes major surface combatants obsolete. It’s survivability within the A2/AD bubble. If the US depends on on carriers for force projection then they are obsolete today, not in fifteen or twenty years. Can we really afford the risk of losing one in contested waters?
Sufficiently advanced missile technology — both ballistic and mach+ cruise — in sufficient volumes will sink surface combatants before they can be effectively neutralized.
The South and East China Seas, the Black Sea, soon enough the Arabian Sea will be unacceptably high risk for American surface combatants. It’s not that I disagree with anything in this piece, David. Except perhaps the suggestion that a modern carrier group isn’t already obsolete in a near-peer conflict.