In this article, we analyze a forecast that locked down a nation and show how easy to make small mistakes in modeling lead to big problems in outcomes.

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In this analysis, we will work to validate an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) peak burden forecast. The forecast is made by national health officials. Such forecasts play a prominent role in time-constrained policy decisions that try to balance between complete societal paralysis and unnecessary loss of human life. Scrutiny of every parameter value, model, and figure is of the utmost importance. Only with scrutiny, sound decisions can be made based on data and modeling.

We will use the Finnish health authority — THL — and their ICU peak burden forecast as an example. …



Worked with machine intelligence for 15 years, and built the interwebs for 25. Nothing here is my own.

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