大立光罕見正向看待淡季高階鏡頭需求之深度分析：玻塑混合鏡頭、華為歸來與鏡頭單價上漲，以及AI手機成為Samsung S24/高階手機新賣點 / In-depth analysis of Largan’s rare positive outlook on off-season demand for high-end lenses: Hybrid glass-plastic lenses, Huawei’s comeback with higher lens prices, and AI smartphone becoming a new selling point for Samsung S24/high-end models

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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3 min read

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Jan 15, 2024

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大立光1H24淡季不淡，營收可望成長30–40% YoY (vs. 共識20–25%)，毛利率可望維持在50%以上 (vs.共識40–50%)。

1. 全球高階鏡頭領導廠商大立光數年來首度釋出對高階手機在淡季的正向展望，關鍵原因為高單價的玻塑混合鏡頭出貨成長快速、華為回歸且鏡頭漲價，以及AI成為S24/高階手機新賣點
2. 我的最新調查指出，雖Android中低階手機在1月庫存回補結束後需求結構無顯著改善，但高階手機需求仍強勁，有利高階鏡頭領導廠商大立光。

高單價的玻塑混合鏡頭出貨成長快速，為大立光罕見正向看待淡季高階鏡頭需求的關鍵原因。

1. iPhone 15 Pro Max在1H24仍佔iPhone 15出貨量40–45%，高單價長焦/潛望鏡鏡頭 (Apple稱之為四重反射稜鏡鏡頭) 為大立光1H24淡季不淡關鍵。
2. 單就Pro Max新機型的長焦鏡頭對大立光1H營收貢獻，1H24就比1H23增加新台幣34–38億元，亦即僅憑此鏡頭就可讓大立光1H24營收成長20–25% YoY。
3. iPhone 15 Pro Max的長焦/潛望鏡生產良率將持續在1H24改善，加上其他高階鏡頭新訂單，可望讓大立光在1H24毛利率維持在50%以上。
4. 因iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦/潛望鏡鏡頭單價顯著提升，足以抵銷任何iPhone市佔率流失給華為的潛在風險，更何況大立光也是華為的主要鏡頭供應商。
5. 華為新款旗艦機型P70採用的玻塑混合鏡頭也將在1H24大量出貨。
6. 更多對玻塑混合鏡頭正向觀點可見先前報告 (https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1729706576842293747)。

大立光出貨給華為鏡頭平均單價在淡季將提升20–30%；華為回歸增添大立光淡季新動能。

1. 重申華為回歸將推升高階鏡頭需求的預測 (先前報告 https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1729343467502158074)。
2. 華為在1H24新款旗艦機型P70系列，預計2024年出貨量至少成長約150% YoY，高階鏡頭主要供應商大立光為關鍵受益者。
3. 大立光出貨給華為鏡頭平均單價在淡季將提升20–30%，有利1H24營收與利潤。

大立光出貨給Samsung鏡頭的平均單價預計在2024年成長5–10%；AI手機為新款旗艦機型Galaxy S24關鍵賣點，2024出貨量將成長10–15% YoY (vs. 2023年的S23)。

1. 受限於硬體設計限制，2024與2025年僅高階手機可提供使用體驗較佳的裝置端生成式AI服務。大立光雖非裝置端生成式AI相關供應商，但可間接受惠於裝置端生成式AI推升高階手機出貨量。
2. 受益於高階手機需求結構改善與AI手機賣點，S24在2024年出貨量將成長10–15% YoY (vs. 2023年的S23)，6P前鏡頭與6P超廣角鏡頭主要供應商大立光為主要受益者之一。
3. 受益於規格升級，大立光出貨給Samsung鏡頭的單價預計在2024年成長5–10%。

Largan will beat seasonality in 1H24, with revenue expected to grow 30–40% YoY (vs. consensus 20–25%) and gross margin expected to remain above 50% (vs. consensus 40–50%).

1. For the first time in years, global high-end lens leader Largan released a positive outlook for high-end smartphones in the off-season. The main reasons are the rapid shipment growth of high-priced hybrid glass-plastic lenses, Huawei’s comeback with higher lens prices, and AI becoming a new selling point for premium smartphones.
2. My latest survey indicates that although the demand structure for mid to low-end Android phones did not improve significantly after the inventory replenishment in January, demand for high-end smartphones remains strong, which benefits Largan.

The rapid growth in shipments of high-priced hybrid glass-plastic lenses is a key reason for Largan’s rare positive view of off-season demand for high-end lenses.

1. The iPhone 15 Pro Max will still account for 40–45% of iPhone 15 shipments in 1H24. High-priced telephoto/periscope lenses (referred to by Apple as tetraprism lenses) are critical to Largan’s buoyant 1H24 off-season.
2. The telephoto lens of the Pro Max model alone is expected to increase Largan’s 1H24 revenue by NT$3.4–3.8 billion over 1H23, which means that this lens alone could contribute to Largan’s 20–25% YoY revenue growth in 1H24.
3. The iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto/periscope lens yield will continue to improve in 1H24, and with other high-end lens orders, Largan’s gross margin will remain above 50%.
4. Due to the significant price increase of the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto/periscope lens, this increase is more than enough to offset any potential risks related to the loss of iPhone market share to Huawei, not to mention that Largan is also Huawei’s main lens supplier.
5. The hybrid glass-plastic lenses used in Huawei’s new flagship P70 model will also start mass shipments in 1H24.
6. See my previous report for more positive views on hybrid glass-plastic lenses (https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1729706576842293747).

The ASP of lenses supplied by Largan to Huawei will increase by 20–30% in the off-season; Huawei’s comeback will add new momentum to Largan’s off-season growth.

1. Reiterate the prediction that Huawei’s return will boost demand for high-end lenses (previous report https://twitter.com/mingchikuo/status/1729343467502158074).
2. Huawei’s new flagship P70 series in 1H24 will see at least 150% YoY shipment growth in 2024, with Largan, the main high-end lens supplier, being the primary beneficiary.
3. The ASP of lenses supplied by Largan to Huawei will increase by 20–30% in the off-season, which will benefit Largan’s revenue and profit in 1H24.

Largan’s ASP for lenses shipped to Samsung will grow 5–10% in 2024; AI smartphone is the key selling point for the new flagship Galaxy S24, with shipments expected to grow 10–15% YoY in 2024 (vs. S23 in 2023).

1. Due to hardware design limitations, only high-end smartphones will offer a better user experience with device-side generative AI (GenAI) services in 2024 and 2025. Although Largan is not a supplier related to device-side GenAI, it can indirectly benefit from the push for device-side GenAI to increase shipments of high-end smartphones.
2. Benefiting from the improved demand structure for high-end smartphones and the selling point of AI smartphone, S24 shipments will grow 10–15% YoY in 2024 (vs. S23 in 2023), with Largan as one of the main suppliers of 6P front lens and 6P ultra-wide lenses.
3. Benefiting from spec upgrades, Largan’s ASP for lenses shipped to Samsung will grow by 5–10% in 2024.