我的最新調查指出，小米智慧型手機的2023年出貨可能將低於市場預期，且目前小米庫存高達12–16週，顯示市場對小米/Android手機出貨動能復甦仍過於樂觀 / My latest survey indicates that Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments in 2023 may be lower than market expectations, and the current inventory of Xiaomi is as high as 12–16 weeks, meaning that the market is too optimistic about the recovery of Xiaomi/Android.
1 min readFeb 10, 2023
- 我預期小米2023年手機出貨預期將衰退8–10% YoY至約1.4億部 (vs. 市場共識的1.5–1.65億部)。
- 小米在1Q23與2Q23的生產計畫疲弱，分別約2,300–2,500萬部與2,000–2,300萬部，目前仍沒有見到3Q23生產計畫能顯著改善的跡象。
- 小米目前手機與零部件庫存共約4,000–5,000萬部，高達12–16週，距離庫存健康水位 (約6週內) 仍有差距，代表市場對小米手機庫存將在1H23修正至合理水位的預期可能仍過度樂觀。目前小米的庫存去化效率仍低，若小米欲加速去化庫存可能不利獲利。
- 雖然我看好ChatGPT/AI趨勢，但未來1–2年內，我認為小米不容易成為此趨勢的主要受益者。
- I predict Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments in 2023 will decrease by 8–10% YoY, reaching around 140 million units (vs. the market’s expectation of 150–165 million units).
- Xiaomi’s production plans for smartphones in 1Q23 and 2Q23 are still weak, with estimates of only 23–25 million and 20–23 million units, respectively. There are no signs of significant improvement in Xiaomi’s production plan for 3Q23.
- Xiaomi’s current inventory of smartphones and components is around 40–50 million units, equivalent to 12–16 weeks, which is far from the healthy inventory level (within about 6 weeks). It implies that the market’s expectation for Xiaomi’s inventory correction to a reasonable level in 1H23 may be overly optimistic. Furthermore, Xiaomi’s efficiency in inventory correction is still low. If Xiaomi wants to accelerate the inventory correction, it may hurt the profits.
- Although I am optimistic about the potential of ChatCPT/AI, I think it will be challenging for Xiaomi to become a primary beneficiary in this field in the next 1–2 years.
