新生小米蓄勢待發：手機業務重拾成長超預期 & 汽車業務迎向新風口 / Xiaomi poised for growth: mobile business resumes growth exceeding expectations & car division welcomes new opportunities
2 min readOct 13, 2023
手機業務：
- 中國手機市場底部將過，預期將重拾成長。十一長假手機銷售顯著成長約15% YoY，4Q23手機出貨QoQ與YoY亦預期均重拾成長。
- Android品牌已無殺價競爭，且成本亦較過去數年下降，故有利品牌商利潤。
- 小米4Q23出貨預估約4,000–4,500萬部 (QoQ與YoY出貨成長均約14%)，顯著優於中國市場的QoQ與YoY個位數成長。關鍵在於小米在海外市場亦重拾成長動能。
- 預估小米2024年手機出貨可達雙位數增長，4Q23與2024年利潤可望超越市場預期。
- 全球化佈局是小米較一般中國企業更有競爭優勢之處。值得注意的是，小米可望在全球Android手機市場復甦之際，顯著受益於在新興市場複製過去在中國市場的成長模式。換句話說，小米可望是繼傳音後，顯著受益於新興市場的另一個中國品牌。
汽車業務：
- 華為新問界M7銷售超預期，象徵著中國電動車市場，在製造方面因高度產業分工，故競爭焦點已開始轉移至自動駕駛、軟件、營銷與渠道。從小米的核心競爭力看，此新競爭格局有利於小米進入汽車市場。
- 小米汽車首款預計將在2024年發售，出貨量預估5–6萬部，關鍵賣點為自動駕駛、軟體生態、800V快充與動力配置，估計售價低於30萬人民幣。若售價越接近25萬甚至低於，則出貨量應該有上修空間。
- 長期來看，小米汽車有兩個獨特競爭優勢。第一是與既有生態整合，包括作業系統、應用程式、手機與IoT等硬件。第二是銷售渠道遍及海外市場，且小米已是全球知名企業，有利小米汽車業務未來在海外增長。
Smartphone business:
- The slump in the Chinese smartphone market is over soon, with expectations of renewed growth. Mobile phone sales in the Chinese market during the National Day Golden Week showed significant growth of around 15% YoY, with both QoQ and YoY growth expected to resume growth for 4Q23 smartphone shipments as well.
- Android brands have moved away from aggressive price wars, and costs have decreased compared to past years, benefiting brand profitability.
- Xiaomi’s 4Q23 shipments are estimated to be around 40–45 million units (approximately 14% QoQ and YoY growth), outperforming the Chinese market’s single-digit QoQ and YoY growth. Key to this is Xiaomi’s regained momentum in overseas markets.
- Xiaomi’s smartphone shipments in 2024 are expected to post double-digit growth, with 4Q23 and 2024 earnings likely to exceed market expectations.
- Globalization gives Xiaomi a competitive advantage over typical Chinese companies. Notably, as the global Android phone market rebounds, Xiaomi stands to benefit significantly from replicating its past growth model in China in emerging markets. In other words, Xiaomi is poised to become another Chinese brand, following Transsion, to benefit from emerging markets notably.
Automotive Business:
- Huawei’s significantly better-than-expected sales of the new M7 symbolize a shift in China’s EV market. With the industry specializing in manufacturing, the competitive focus is shifting to autonomous driving, software, marketing, and distribution. Given Xiaomi’s core competencies, this new competitive landscape favors Xiaomi’s entry into the auto market.
- Xiaomi’s debut car is expected to be launched in 2024, with estimated shipments of 50–60k units. Key selling points include autonomous driving, software ecosystem, 800V fast charging, and powertrain specifications, with an estimated price below 300k yuan. If the price approaches or falls below 250k yuan, shipment estimates could be revised upward.
- In the long run, Xiaomi cars have two unique competitive advantages. First is integrating with their existing ecosystem, including the operating system, apps, and hardware such as smartphones and IoT devices. The second is its extensive distribution network in overseas markets. As a globally famous company, this positions Xiaomi’s car business well for future international growth.
