水晶光電為iPhone四重反射稜鏡升級藍圖的領先受益者 / Crystal-Optech as a leading beneficiary in iPhone tetraprism upgrade roadmap

Apple自iPhone 15 Pro Max開始採用四重反射稜鏡 (潛望鏡) 相機，並規劃了未來數年規格升級路線，稜鏡的第一供應商水晶光電在相關供應鏈中為領先受益者之一。此外，許多投資人擔憂Apple可能將用塑膠稜鏡取代玻璃稜鏡，我的最新供應鏈調查顯示未來數年iPhone將持續採用玻璃稜鏡。

1. iPhone 16 (2H24)：
(1) iPhone 16 Pro與Pro Max均將採用四重反射稜鏡相機 (規格與iPhone 15 Pro Max的相同)。
(2) 四重反射稜鏡相機的滲透率自iPhone 15系列的35–40%提升至iPhone 16系列的60–65%，故2024年四重反射稜鏡相機出貨量顯著成長約160% YoY。
(3) 除出貨量成長外，水晶光電的營收與利潤也受惠於供應比重自2023年的70–75%提升至2024年的80%以上。另一關鍵為2024年的資本支出與研發費用將大幅減少，也有利於利潤成長。

2. iPhone 17 (2H25) & iPhone 18 (2H26)：
(1) 高階iPhone 17機型預計將配備升級的四重反射稜鏡相機，關鍵規格變化為從iPhone 16的1/3.1" 1,200萬CIS升級至1/2.6" 4,800萬CIS。CIS升級有利照相品質與變焦功能。
(2) 目前尚未確定是否僅iPhone 17 Pro Max配備升級的四重反射稜鏡相機，若是，則2H26的iPhone 18 Pro也將配備升級的四重反射稜鏡相機。
(3) 升級的四重反射稜鏡相機需採用新設計的稜鏡，為減少四重反射稜鏡相機高度，稜鏡需設計成更矮的外觀。考量到新設計與生產良率持續改善，預期水晶光電的稜鏡事業營收與利潤在2025與2026年將進一步成長。

3. iPhone 19 (2H27)：
(1) 四重反射稜鏡相機將在2027的新款iPhone上再度迎來規格上的顯著升級，升級幅度高於iPhone 17 & iPhone 18，預期2H27新款iPhone的四重反射稜鏡相機將支援更高的光學變焦倍率。
(2) 提高光學變焦倍率有數種做法，其中一個最可行的作法是增加稜鏡數量以拉長光的行進路線 (如果是這樣，屆時就不叫做四重反射稜鏡了)。而若欲增加稜鏡數量，則可能需要縮小稜鏡體積，也會提升稜鏡的設計複雜度，上述均有利水晶光電的營運動能。

Apple began using the tetraprism camera in the iPhone 15 Pro Max, and the company has planned a series of specification upgrades over the next few years. Crystal-Optech, the primary supplier of prisms, is one of the leading beneficiaries in this supply chain. Additionally, many investors worry that Apple may replace glass prisms with plastic ones. However, my latest supply chain survey indicates that iPhones will continue to use glass prisms for the next few years.

1. iPhone 16 (2H24):
(1) The iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max will feature a tetraprism camera (with the same specifications as the iPhone 15 Pro Max).
(2) Tetraprism camera penetration will increase from 35–40% in iPhone 15 series to 60–65% in iPhone 16 series, resulting in significant YoY growth of approximately 160% in tetraprism camera shipments in 2024.
(3) In addition to the shipment growth, Crystal-Optech’s revenue and profit will benefit from the increase in supply share from 70–75% in 2023 to over 80% in 2024. Another key factor is the significant reduction in capex and R&D expenses in 2024, which will also favor profit growth.

2. iPhone 17 (2H25) & iPhone 18 (2H26):
(1) The high-end iPhone 17 model is expected to feature an upgraded tetraprism camera, with key specification changes from a 1/3.1" 12MP CIS in the iPhone 16 Pro series to a 1/2.6" 48MP CIS. This upgrade will enhance photo quality and zoom functionality.
(2) It is currently uncertain whether only the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the upgraded tetraprism camera. If so, the 2H26 iPhone 18 Pro will also feature the upgraded tetraprism camera.
(3) The upgraded tetraprism camera requires all-new designed prisms. The prism must have a shorter form factor to reduce the camera’s height. Considering the new design and the continuous improvement of production yields, Crystal-Optech’s revenue and profits are expected to grow in 2025 and 2026.

3. iPhone 19 (2H27):
(1) The tetraprism camera will undergo another significant specification upgrade in the new iPhone models of 2027, with a more substantial improvement than those in the iPhone 17 and iPhone 18. The 2H27 new iPhone is expected to support a better optical zoom.
(2) There are several ways to increase the optical zoom. One of the most feasible solutions is to increase the number of prisms to lengthen the light path (in which case, it would no longer be called a tetraprism). As the number of prisms increases, the prism size may need to be reduced, increasing the complexity of the prism design. All of the above are beneficial to Crystal-Optech’s business momentum.