生益科技為Nvidia AI伺服器的2024年新贏家與AI PC領先受益者 / Shengyi to be the 2024 new winner of Nvidia AI server and the leading beneficiary of AI PCs
2 min readDec 13, 2023
- 我最新的供應鏈調查顯示，生益科技的超低耗損 (ultra low loss/extreme low loss) CCL (Synamic9GN) 已通過Nvidia的驗證，預期生益科技最快將於2Q24開始量產Nvidia AI伺服器主板、OAM (加速器模組) 與UBB (通用基板) 用的CCL，顯著該公司的貢獻營收與利潤。
- 目前Nvidia AI伺服器的CCL材料為台光電的EM892K與斗山的DS-7409D，均屬高毛利率的超低耗損材料。
- Nvidia AI伺服器出貨預計將在2024年成長150% YoY或以上，超低耗損CCL目前處於供應緊張狀態。 除既有高階的一般伺服器與PC/筆記型電腦，未來AI PC也需升級CCL至超低耗損。
- AI伺服器的CCL用量約為一般伺服器的8倍左右。Nvidia AI伺服器預計在2H24升級至B100方案後，CCL用量還會進一步提升。
- 台光電受益於AI伺服器的CCL材料出貨，毛利率自2Q23開始著提升至27.5% (vs. 1Q23的21.4%)，並在3Q23創歷史新高達30.2%，股價則因此上漲約200%。
- 從台光電的毛利率與股價表現看，在超低耗損CCL供應緊張下，預期AI伺服器用的CCL出貨可望顯著貢獻生益科技的營收、利潤與股價表現。
- 台光電與斗山目前是Nvidia AI伺服器的合格CCL供應商，供應比重分別約90–95%與5-10%。預期2024年台光電、斗山與生益科技的供應比重分別為60–65%、20-25%與10-15%。
- 從技術能力看，生益科技若能符合Nvidia的要求，代表亦能符合AMD與Intel的要求，因此可預期未來生益科技也有機會成為AMD與Intel的AI伺服器供應商。考量到AI伺服器出貨量仍持續快速增長且生益科技為新供應商，未來數年的營收與利潤可望因此顯著受益。
- My latest supply chain survey indicates that Shengyi Technology’s ultra low loss/extreme low loss CCL (Synamic9GN) has passed Nvidia’s qualification. It is expected that Shengyi will start CCL mass production for Nvidia’s AI server motherboards, OAM (open accelerator module), and UBB (universal baseboard) as early as 2Q24, contributing significantly to the company’s revenue and profit.
- The CCL used for Nvidia AI servers are currently EMC’s EM892K and Doosan’s DS-7409D, both of which are ultra-low-loss materials with high gross profit margins.
- Shipments of Nvidia AI servers will grow by 150% YoY or more in 2024. The demand for ultra-low-loss CCL is currently facing a tight supply. In addition to existing high-end conventional servers and PCs/notebooks, future AI PCs/notebooks will also need to upgrade the CCL to ultra-low-loss.
- The CCL consumption for AI servers is about eight times that of conventional servers. Nvidia AI servers are expected to further increase CCL consumption after upgrading to B100 solution in 2H24.
- EMC’s gross margin increased to 27.5% in 2Q23 (vs. 21.4% in 1Q23) and reached a record high of 30.2% in 3Q23. As a result, the company’s stock price increased by approximately 200%.
- Judging from EMC’s gross margin and stock performance, under the tight supply of ultra-low-loss CCL, shipments of CCL for AI servers are expected to contribute significantly to Shengyi’s revenue, profit, and stock performance.
- EMC and Doosan are currently qualified CCL suppliers for Nvidia AI servers, with an approximate market share of 90–95% and 5-10%, respectively. It’s expected that in 2024, EMC, Doosan, and Shengyi will have a supply market share of 60–65%, 20-25%, and 10-15%, respectively.
- From a technical capability perspective, if Shengyi can meet Nvidia’s requirements, it means that it can also meet AMD’s and Intel’s requirements. Therefore, Shengyi will also be able to become an AI server supplier for AMD and Intel in the future. Given the rapid growth of AI server shipments and Shengyi’s status as a new supplier, Shengyi’s revenue and profit will benefit significantly in the coming years.
