預期立訊或將主導Apple第一代AR/MR頭戴裝置開發與量產 / Luxshare ICT likely to lead development and production of Apple’s first-generation AR/MR headset

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)
2 min readFeb 24, 2023

我的相關調查與預測如下:

  1. 和碩可能預計將AR/MR開發團隊與生產資源在1H23轉移至由和碩與立訊合資的立鎧。因立鎧由立訊主導,等同由立訊接手該產品後續的設計與生產。這樣的變化有利後續加速降低頭戴裝置成本,也是Apple所期待看到的。
  2. 和碩也是立鎧的股東,故立鎧獲利也有利於和碩,但實質上和碩算是逐步退出Apple頭戴裝置事業了。
  3. 因為Apple的第一代AR/MR頭戴裝置預估出貨量極低,因此此投資對立訊短期內可能很難創造獲利。Apple是立訊最大客戶,立訊在2023與2024年的成長性完全仰賴Apple訂單,故如果Apple期望立訊接手頭戴裝置,立訊很難拒絕此要求。
  4. 立訊將透過立鎧去爭取未來Apple新AR/MR頭戴裝置產品的訂單。我認為對立鎧最好的發展是Apple頭戴裝置大賣,並趁營收與利潤成長能見度佳時IPO。
  5. Apple第二代AR/MR頭戴裝置有高低階兩個機型,高階與低階分別由立鎧與鴻海開發與生產,預計兩款可能均在2025年推出。
  6. 我認為這對Apple是一個潛在警訊,亦即為何Apple對外反覆重申最看好AR,卻無法讓供應商願意持續與之合作開發該產品?為何近2年有些Apple供應商會更願意投資電動車等新事業,而非配合Apple擴產/投資?

Here are my related survey findings and predictions.

  1. It’s expected that Pegatron will likely transfer the AR/MR development team and production resources to Luxcaseict (a joint venture between Luxshare ICT and Pegatron), led by Luxshare ICT, in 1H23. It essentially means that Luxshare ICT will take over this product’s subsequent design and production. Such changes will lead to the subsequent acceleration of reducing the cost of the headset, which is what Apple expects.
  2. Pegatron is a shareholder of Luxcaseict, so Luxcaseict’s profit will be beneficial to Pegatron, but essentially, Pegatron is gradually withdrawing from Apple’s headset business.
  3. As the shipments of Apple’s first-generation AR/MR headsets are extremely low, it is difficult for Luxshare ICT to profit from this investment in the short term. Luxshare ICT’s growth in 2023 and 2024 depends entirely on Apple’s orders. Therefore, if Apple expects Luxshare ICT to take over the headset, it will be difficult for Luxshare ICT to refuse this request.
  4. Luxshare ICT will use Luxcaseict to win orders for Apple’s new AR/MR headset products in the future. I think the best scenario for Luxcaseict is for Apple’s headsets to sell well and conduct an IPO when the visibility of revenue and profit growth is good.
  5. Apple’s second-generation AR/MR headset has two high-end and low-end models. The high-end and low-end will be developed and produced by Luxcaseict and Foxconn, respectively. The current launch schedule for both models will likely be in 2025.
  6. I think this could be a potential warning sign for Apple. Despite repeatedly stating that it is optimistic about AR, why can it not make suppliers willing to continue cooperating with Apple to develop this product? In the past two years, why have some Apple suppliers been more willing to invest in new businesses, such as electric vehicles, than cooperate with Apple’s expansion/investment?

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

天風國際證券分析師,分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測。An analyst at TF International Securities. Sharing observations and predictions of tech industry trends.