大立光、水晶光電與藍特光學為iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭規格提高最大贏家；四重反射稜鏡技術為2023與2024年的Apple供應鏈最佳投資機會之一 / Largan, Crystal-Optech, and Lante Optics are the biggest beneficiaries of the upgraded specifications of the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens; tetraprism technology represents one of the best investment opportunities in Apple supply chain for 2023 and 2024

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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4 min read

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Sep 24, 2023

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結論

1. 大立光、水晶光電與藍特光學的強勁出貨動能可望維持至年底 (vs. 一般Apple供應鏈出貨高峰在10月)，原因為Apple出貨前緊急提高iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭驗證標準且該機種發售後需求優於預期。
2. 大立光2H23營收 (主要是4Q23) 中，iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭因漲價故貢獻高達約新台幣65–70億元，顯著高於去年14 Pro Max的15–20億元。
3. 水晶光電 (一供) 與藍特光學 (二供) 受益於來自大立光稜鏡訂單顯著成長，故產能利用率預期將滿載到年底，並均在2024年持續擴產至少50%。
4. LGIT目前的模組良率問題不利近期利潤，但明年因技術能力提升故可能為iPhone 16 Pro四重反射稜鏡長焦模組獨供或主要供應商。
5. 此改變可能不利玉晶光 (鏡頭) 與高偉電子 (模組) 取得明年iPhone 16 Pro系列的四重反射稜鏡長焦訂單，關鍵在於鏡頭驗證標準提高與模組組裝困難高於預期，需密切觀察明年4月前這兩家供應商的驗證結果。

產業背景

1. iPhone 16 Pro Max需求高於預期，關鍵賣點為配備四重反射稜鏡技術的長焦相機。
2. Apple為改善模組良率故緊急提高鏡頭規格，希望藉由更精準的鏡頭組裝 (1G3P鏡頭+稜鏡) 來補償模組的組裝公差。
3. 因Apple緊急提高鏡頭規格與要求擴產，故iPhone 16 Pro Max長焦鏡頭單價提升約30%至US$6–6.5 (美元)。
4. iPhone 16 Pro Max與iPhone 16 Pro預期均將配備四重反射稜鏡長焦相機，並可能維持目前的高規格標準，以確保相機效能與生產良率。我預測2024年配備四重反射稜鏡長焦相機的iPhone出貨量將成長約110% YoY至7,000–8,000萬部。

大立光4Q23營收與利潤可望擊敗市場預期，2024年亦將持續顯著受益

1. 大立光為iPhone 14 & 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭獨家供應商。
2. iPhone 14 Pro Max在2H22長焦鏡頭出貨量約3,000萬個，單價US$1.5–2。iPhone 15 Pro Max在2H23長焦鏡頭出貨量約3,500萬個，單價因規格提高故提升約30%至US$6–6.5。
3. 故僅憑Pro Max長焦鏡頭，大立光2H23營收就比2H22增加了NT$50–55億元 (主要集中在4Q23)。若假設大立光其他營收沒有太大變化，預期4Q23營收將會有顯著YoY成長，擊敗市場預期。
4. iPhone 15 Pro Max為Apple 4Q23營收與獲利最重要的驅動，故Apple同意顯著提升長焦鏡頭單價30%，換取並確保大立光的支援。

水晶光電與藍特光學產能利用率滿載至年底，2024均將大幅擴產

1. 在Apple提高iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭規格前，水晶光電幾乎為獨家供應商，稜鏡的2H23月產能利用率平均為約70%以上。在提高鏡頭規格後，因大立光對稜鏡需求顯著提升，導致水晶光電產能利用率即便滿載也無法滿足訂單需求，故藍特光學訂單亦顯著增加。
2. 水晶光電為稜鏡第一供貨商，供貨比重約70-80%。
3. 為因應Apple在2024年的強勁稜鏡需求，水晶光電與藍特光學均預期在2024年擴增產能至少50%。供應比重上仍維持水晶光電與藍特光學分別約70-80%與20–30%。

關鍵供應商的訂單/成長趨勢分析

1. 大立光、水晶光電與藍特光學因訂單能見度高，仍為Apple在2024年積極推動四重反射稜鏡技術的最大受惠者。
2. 若Android品牌開始追隨Apple與積極推廣潛望鏡相機，潛在受益者為大立光與水晶光電。
3. LGIT近期獲利因模組良率議題故有隱憂，但在iPhone 16 Pro量產前應可顯著改善。
4. 中性看待Jahwa，因VCM出貨與單價幾乎無變化。
5. 因四重反射稜鏡長焦鏡頭規格提高且模組組裝難度高於預期，故不利玉晶光 (鏡頭) 與高偉電子 (模組) 於2024年成為新供應商，需密切觀察明年4月前這兩家供應商的驗證結果。站在Apple立場，應該會希望玉晶光與高偉電子能成為新供應商，但供應商之間的技術落差，有時在短期內並非靠Apple支援就可彌補，京東方今年出貨iPhone面板的結果低於預期就是最好證明。

Conclusion

1. Largan, Crystal-Optech, and Lante Optics are expected to maintain strong shipment momentum until the end of the year (vs. the typical peak shipments for the Apple supply chain in October) due to Apple urgently raising the validation requirements for the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens before mass production and the better-than-expected demand after its release.
2. Thanks to price increases, Largan’s 2H23 revenue (primarily for 4Q23) from the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens will contribute approximately $NT6.5–7 billion, significantly higher than the NT$1.5–2 billion from the 14 Pro Max last year.
3. Crystal-Optech (first supplier) and Lante Optics (second supplier) benefit from the substantial growth in prism orders from Largan. As a result, both are expected to operate at full capacity until the end of the year and expand their production capacity by at least 50% in 2024.
4. LGIT’s current module yield issues may negatively impact near-term profits, but due to technology improvements, the company may become the sole or primary supplier for the iPhone 16 Pro’s tetraprism telephoto module next year.
5. This shift could disadvantage Genius (lens) and Cowell (module) in obtaining tetraprism telephoto orders for next year’s iPhone 16 Pro series. The key reason lies in the module’s higher lens validation requirements and higher-than-expected assembly difficulties. Close attention should be paid to the validation results of these two suppliers before April next year.

Industry background

1. The iPhone 16 Pro Max demand exceeds expectations, with its major selling point being the telephoto camera equipped with tetraprism technology.
2. Apple urgently raised lens specifications to improve module yield, hoping that more precise lens assembly (1G3P lens + prism) could compensate for module assembly tolerances.
3. Due to Apple urgently raising lens specifications and demanding expanded production, the iPhone 16 Pro Max’s telephoto lens unit price increased by about 30% to US$6–6.5.
4. iPhone 16 Pro Max and iPhone 16 Pro will be equipped with a tetraprism telephoto camera, likely maintaining the current high specifications to ensure camera performance and production yields. I predict the shipment of iPhones equipped with a tetraprism telephoto camera will grow by about 110% YoY in 2024, reaching 70–80 million units.

Largan’s 4Q23 revenue and profits will likely beat market expectations, with significant benefits continuing in 2024

1. Largan is the exclusive supplier of the telephoto lenses of the iPhone 14 & 15 Pro Max.
2. The iPhone 14 Pro Max telephoto lens shipments were about 30 million units for 2H22, priced at US$1.5–2 each. The iPhone 15 Pro Max’s telephoto lens shipments will reach 35 million in 2H23, with a price increase due to the higher specifications, approximately 30% to US$6–6.5.
3. Therefore, just from the Pro Max’s telephoto lens, Largan’s 2H23 revenue increased by NT$5–5.5 billion over 2H22 (primarily in 4Q23). Assuming no significant changes in Largan’s other revenues, 4Q23 is expected to see a notable YoY growth, beating market expectations.
4. The iPhone 15 Pro Max is the most crucial driver for Apple’s 4Q23 revenue and profit, so Apple agreed to a significant 30% price increase for the telephoto lens in exchange for and to ensure Largan’s support.

Crystal-Optech and Lante Optics will operate at full capacity until the end of the year and will significantly expand production in 2024

1. Before Apple raised the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto lens specifications, Crystal-Optech was almost the exclusive supplier, with an average prism capacity utilization rate of about 70% per month for 2H23. After the specification raises, due to Largan’s significant demand for prisms, even full capacity at Crystal-Optech couldn’t meet order demands, leading to a notable increase in Lante Optics’s orders.
2. Crystal-Optech is the primary prism supplier, with a supply share of about 70-80%.
3. To address Apple’s robust prism demand in 2024, Crystal-Optech and Lante Optics will expand their production capacities by at least 50% in 2024. The supply share remains at about 70-80% for Crystal-Optech and 20–30% for Lante Optics.

Analysis of key suppliers’ order/growth trends

1. With high order visibility, Largan, Crystal-Optech, and Lante Optics remain the most significant beneficiaries as Apple aggressively promotes tetraprism technology in 2024.
2. If Android brands begin to follow Apple and actively promote periscope cameras, the potential beneficiaries will be Largan and Crystal-Optech.
3. LGIT’s recent profitability has concerns due to module yield issues, but issues should be improved significantly before the iPhone 16 Pro’s mass production.
4. My view for Jahwa is neutral, as VCM shipments and unit prices remain almost unchanged.
5. Due to upgraded specifications for tetraprism telephoto lenses and higher-than-expected assembly difficulties of the module, Genius (lens) and Cowell (module) may not benefit as new suppliers in 2024. Close attention should be paid to the validation results of these two suppliers before April next year. From Apple’s perspective, it would prefer Genius and Cowell to become new suppliers. However, the technical gap between suppliers is only sometimes easily bridged with Apple’s support in the short term, as evidenced by BOE’s underperformance in iPhone panel shipments this year.