2024年新款iPad機型與量產時程預測 / Predictions for New iPad Models and Production Timeline in 2024

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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3 min read

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Nov 12, 2023

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結論：

1. Apple將在2024升級既有iPad機型與推出新機型，但出貨量與2022年的高峰仍有不小差距，原因在於 WFH需求衰退，以及娛樂與生產力的使用體驗欠缺結構性的改變。
2. 關注的升級重點為M3處理器與OLED螢幕。
3. 預估2024年iPad出貨量為5,200–5,400萬部 (vs. 2023年約5,000萬部與2022年約6,300萬部)。

iPad Air (1Q24)：

1. 兩款iPad Air將在1Q24量產，分別是10.9吋與12.9吋。
2. 12.9吋iPad Air為全新機型，雖沒有配備mini-LED，但受益採用Oxide背板 (與既有mini-LED iPad Pro背板規格相同)．故螢幕效能優於10.9吋iPad Air (背板採用a-Si)。

OLED iPad Pro (1Q24末 — 2Q24)：

1. 兩款捨棄mini-LED並改採OLED的iPad Pro將在1Q24末 — 2Q24量產。
2. OLED iPad Pro配備Ｍ3處理器與改善的外觀結構設計。
3. 新款iPad Pro的OLED面板採Tandem與LTPO背板 (與iPhone 15 Pro背板技術相同)，效能與功耗優於既有的mini-LED iPad Pro。
4. 量產時間延後到1Q24末 — 2Q24 (vs. 原本的1Q24初) 的原因是OLED面板模組的生產問題。
5. 如果新款10.9吋iPad Air售價不變，且新款12.9吋iPad Air售價肯定高於10.9吋iPad Air，若Apple想維持iPad Air與iPad Pro的價格差距以維持既有的產品區隔策略，則意味著新款OLED iPad Pro可能會漲價。
6. 目前兩款OLED iPad Pro的2024年出貨預測共約600–800萬部，出貨動能反略弱於既有iPad Pro，推測可能原因為OLED iPad售價或將提升與12.9吋iPad Air的潛在替代效應。

低價機型 (2H24)：

1. 新款iPad mini量產時程遞延到2H24 (先前預測為1Q24)。
2. 新款iPad (11代) 量產時程為2H24。
3. 第九代iPad預計在2024年底前結束生產。

Conclusion:

1. Apple will upgrade existing iPad models and launch new a new model in 2024, but shipments are still far from the peak in 2022 due to the decline in work-from-home (WFH) demand and a lack of structural change in the entertainment and productivity user experience.
2. Key upgrades to focus on include the M3 processor and OLED displays.
3. iPad shipments in 2024 are estimated at 52–54 million units (vs. about 50 million in 2023 and about 63 million in 2022).

iPad Air (1Q24):

1. Two iPad Air models, 10.9-inch and 12.9-inch, are scheduled for mass production in 1Q24.
2. The 12.9-inch iPad Air is an all-new model, and while it lacks mini-LED, it benefits from an Oxide backplane (the same spec as the existing mini-LED iPad Pro’s), offering better display performance than the 10.9-inch iPad Air with an a-Si backplane.

OLED iPad Pro (late 1Q24–2Q24):

1. Two new OLED iPad Pros, replacing mini-LED, are scheduled for mass production in late 1Q24–2Q24
2. The OLED iPad Pros will feature an M3 processor and the improved form factor designs.
3. The OLED panels for the new iPad Pros will adopt the Tandem design and LTPO backplanes (the same backplanes used in the iPhone 15 Pros), outperforming the existing mini-LED iPad Pro in terms of display performance and power consumption.
4. Mass production will be delayed to late 1Q24–2Q24 (vs. early 1Q24 planned initially) due to production issues with OLED panel modules.
5. If the price of the new 10.9-inch iPad Air remains unchanged, and the new 12.9-inch iPad Air is definitely more expensive than the 10.9-inch model, then if Apple wants to maintain the price gap between the iPad Air and iPad Pro to preserve its existing product segmentation strategy, it means that the new OLED iPad Pros may see a price increase.
6. Shipments of the two OLED iPad Pro models will be 6–8 million units in 2024, with slightly weaker shipment momentum than the existing iPad Pros, possibly due to the higher price of OLED iPads and potential cannibalization from the 12.9-inch iPad Air.

More affordable models (2H24):

1. Mass production of the new iPad mini is delayed to 2H24 (vs. the previous prediction of 1Q24).
2. The new iPad 11th generation will enter mass production in 2H24.
3. The iPad 9th generation production will go to end-of-life (EOL) before the end of 2024.