2024年消費電子產業三大關鍵投資趨勢：Android庫存回補、Vision Pro與AI PC/手機 / Three key consumer electronics investment trends in 2024: Android replenishment, Vision Pro, and AI PC/smartphone

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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Dec 25, 2023

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Android手機庫存回補後的真實需求

1. 本波庫存回補始於5–7月。華為於8月底推出Mate 60 Pro後，因需求優於預期故增加採購零組件，逼迫競爭對手需跟進以確保有足夠零組件，進而推升庫存回補力道。
2. 本次庫存回補至約2024年1月結束，需注意庫存回補力道強勁易給人需求結構改善的錯覺。目前我與市場普遍樂觀看待2024年Android手機需求的看法略有不同，建議投資人關注是否重演PC與TV在2–3Q23庫存回補後但後續需求仍無改善。
3. 庫存回補後的真實需求/訂單變化將影響上游半導體與AI手機相關股票的交易氣氛。

Vision Pro發售後的使用者體驗

1. Vision Pro是Apple 2024年最重要的產品。
2. 2024年出貨預估約50萬部。目前Vision Pro已量產，預計在2024年1月首週開始大量出貨。根據目前的大量出貨時程，Apple最有可能將在1月底或2月初發售Vision Pro。
3. 若用戶對Vision Pro的反應優於預期，有利強化「Vision Pro是下一個消費電子明星產品」的市場共識與相關供應鏈股價。

AI裝置/PC/手機為未來數年換機需求關鍵

1. 從建立用戶對AI裝置認知、建立使用者行為與支援第三方開發商的角度，在相關業者中 (作業系統、軟體服務、終端品牌、處理器與零組件)，作業系統業者對AI裝置趨勢的影響力最大。
2. 來自不同業者的AI裝置相關資訊均可能有利短期交易氣氛，但作業系統才是真正主導AI裝置產業基本面的核心。
3. 2024年AI裝置的主流硬體規格將包括內建7–10B LLM (用於推理)、40–50 TOPS的AI算力、10–20 token/s或以上的推理速度、8–16GB或以上的DRAM等。投資機會來自上述主流規格所創造的使用者體驗之驗證與帶動之規格升級。
4. 可預期所有相關業者均會將AI PC/手機作為2024年的宣傳重點，故2024年所有的電子產品展會均有可能出現AI PC/手機的相關廠商股價之催化劑，包括CES (1月)、MWC (2月)、WWDC (6月)、Computex (6月)、Google I/O (5月)、Apple新iPhone發佈會 (9月)、IFA (9月)、Apple新Mac發佈會 (4Q)、微軟新品發佈會 (2H)、與各主要品牌的新品發佈會等。

Actual demand for Android smartphones after stock replenishment

1. The current stock replenishment started in May-July. After Huawei announced the Mate 60 Pro in late August, it increased component purchases due to better-than-expected demand, forcing competitors to follow suit to ensure they had enough components, thereby boosting the momentum of stock replenishment.
2. This stock replenishment will end around January 2024. It is important to note that the strong stock replenishment momentum may give the illusion of an improved demand structure. My latest view is slightly different from the market’s optimistic consensus on Android smartphone demand in 2024. I recommend investors pay attention to whether it will repeat the pattern of PC and TV, where demand did not improve after stock replenishment in 2Q23–3Q23, will be repeated.
3. The actual demand/order changes after stock replenishment will affect upstream semiconductor and AI smartphone trading sentiment of related stocks.

Vision Pro user experience after launch

1. Vision Pro is the most important product for Apple for 2024.
2. Shipments in 2024 are estimated to be approximately 500,000 units. Vision Pro is currently in mass production and will begin mass shipments in the first week of January 2024. Vision Pro will most likely hit the store shelves in late January or early February based on the current mass shipment schedule.
3. If user feedback on Vision Pro is better than expected, it will help strengthen the market consensus that “Vision Pro is the next star product in consumer electronics” and the related supply chain stock price.

AI device/PC/smartphone are key to replacement demand in the coming years

1. Among related vendors (operating systems, software services, brands, processors, and components), operating system vendors have the most significant impact on AI device trends from the perspective of building user awareness of AI devices, establishing user behavior, and supporting third-party developers.
2. Information related to AI devices from different vendors may benefit short-term trading sentiment, but the operating system is the core that genuinely dominates the fundamentals of the AI ​​device industry.
3. The mainstream hardware specifications of AI devices in 2024 will include built-in 7–10B LLM (for inference), 40–50 TOPS AI computing power, 10–20 token/s or more inference speed, 8–16GB or more DRAM, etc. Investment opportunities arise from the proof of the user experience created by the above mainstream specifications and the driven specification upgrades.
4. all relevant vendors are expected to focus on promoting AI PC/smartphone as a key point in their 2024 campaigns. Therefore, all electronic product exhibitions/events in 2024 are likely to have catalysts for the stock prices of AI PC/smartphone-related supply chain, including CES (January), MWC (February), WWDC (June), Computex (June), Google I/O (MAy), Apple new iPhone media event (September), IFA (September), Apple new Mac media event (4Q), Microsoft new product media event (2H), and major brands’ new product announcements, etc.