4Q23 MacBook供應鏈出貨顯著衰退25–35% YoY，需警戒同時是MacBook關鍵供應商之AI股票 / 4Q23 MacBook supply chain shipments decline significantly by 25–35% YoY; be cautious for AI stocks that are key MacBook suppliers
2 min readOct 18, 2023
- 結論：AI股票當前正值需要好的營收與利潤來提振交易氣氛之際，若AI股票同時又是關鍵MacBook關鍵供應商，可能要注意近期AI伺服器的營收，能否抵銷MacBook顯著衰退。
- 新款15吋MacBook Air自返校日 (Back to school) 後，需求顯著衰退，今年出貨預估已下修約20%或更多。
- 2023年MacBook出貨預估將衰退約30% YoY至約1,700萬部。
- 4Q23沒有新產品，MacBook出貨動能將顯著低於過往旺季。沒有新產品的關鍵是Apple需要清理庫存與重新擬定2024年新產品與行銷策略。
- MacBook目前的挑戰，包括WFH需求結束、Apple Silicon與mini-LED對消費者吸引力可能已不再。
- Apple希望M3處理器可以推升2024年MacBook出貨量，然仍需觀察可策略能否奏效。
- MacBook的組裝與關鍵零組件的單價都顯著高於一般Notebook (約3倍以上)，故對MacBook關鍵供應商的營收與利潤影響不小。
- Conclusion: When AI stocks desperately need solid revenues and earnings to boost current trading sentiment, those that are also key MacBook suppliers may need to be closely monitored to see if recent AI server revenues can offset the significant decline in MacBook sales.
- Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year.
- MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023.
- There are no new products in 4Q23, and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons. The key to no new products is that Apple needs to clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024.
- Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple’s silicon and mini-LED.
- Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be effective.
- The ASP of assembly and key components for the MacBook is significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers.
