Android手機庫存回補即將結束，需求改善可能低於預期 / Android Smartphone Inventory Replenishment Nears End; Demand Improvement May Fall Short of Expectations
2 min readJan 10, 2024
- 主要Android手機品牌自3Q23開始的庫存回補，預計均在2024年1月結束。從出貨預估與訂單能見度的變化來看，Android手機需求改善可能低於市場預期
- 目前非中國市場的中低階手機出貨預估已開始下修，普遍看到雙位數以上的砍單，新興市場當地品牌甚至有高達40–50%以上的砍單。
- 中國市場在庫存回補後的需求是否有改善，需視農曆過年前3週的銷售結果而定。但需注意的是，自去年雙十一旺季結束後，整體出貨已開始出現YoY衰退，雖近期又略有改善，但主要是為了農曆過年旺季備貨，不見得是因為市場需求轉佳。
- 除了出貨預估變化，訂單能見度也是判斷需求是否改善的關鍵因素。無論是中國或非中國市場，訂單能見度均自2H23的4–6個月縮短至1H24的約2個月，可看出品牌廠商保守看待後續市場需求。
- 近期交易風險可能來自市場期待庫存回補後能見到需求結構改善。我認為即便Android手機需求沒有結構性改善，下修空間也有限。但風險在於市場期待庫存回補後能見到需求改善 (許多手機產業相關股票先前的上漲也是反映這個預期)。
- Inventory replenishment by major Android smartphone brands, which began in 3Q23, is expected to end by January 2024. Given the changes in shipment forecasts and order visibility, the improvement in demand for Android smartphones may fall short of market expectations.
- Current shipment forecasts for mid to low-end range smartphones in non-Chinese markets have been revised downward, with widespread double-digit order reductions observed. In emerging markets, local brands are even experiencing order cuts of up to 40–50%.
- Whether demand in the Chinese market improves after inventory replenishment will depend on the sales results in the first three weeks of the Lunar New Year. However, it should be noted that since the end of last year’s Double Eleven peak season, overall shipments have started to decline YoY. Although there has been a slight improvement recently, this is mainly due to stocking up for the Lunar New Year peak season, not necessarily because market demand has improved.
- Besides changes in shipment forecasts, order visibility is a key factor in assessing whether demand is improving. In both Chinese and non-Chinese markets, order visibility has decreased from 4–6 months in 2H23 to around two months in 1H24, indicating that brands are cautious about future market demand.
- Recent trading risks may stem from the market’s expectation of improving demand structure after inventory replenishment. I believe that even if the demand for Android phones does not improve structurally, the room for downward revision is limited. However, the risk lies in the market’s expectation of an improvement in demand after inventory replenishment (the previous rise in many smartphone-related stocks also reflects this expectation).
