Apple 8月3日法說對Apple與供應鏈的股價影響預覽 / The preview of how Apple’s earnings report on August 3 will affect Apple stocks and the supply chain
2 min readAug 2, 2023
- 2Q23是傳統淡季，3Q23為新舊iPhone轉換期，故通常此時的財報結果與財務預測都不易有引人注目之處。
- Apple的近期EPS若能因服務事業表現、零組件成本下降與匯率變化而優於市場預期，短期內有利Apple股價。
- 仍會有少數供應商在Apple供應鏈有明確的成長趨勢 (如：市佔率提升、規格升級帶動ASP提升等)，但Apple硬體產品的出貨預估在2H23幾乎都弱於2H22，故除非Apple明確指出正向看待2H23或2024年市場需求，否則此次財報對大多數的供應商股價不易有正面幫助。
- 4Q22 iPhone雖因2022年11月鴻海鄭州工廠停工事件而出貨下滑，但大部分的零組件出貨計劃在4Q22並沒有顯著變化，除非iPhone 15發售後需求優於市場預期，否則大部分的供應商會因iPhone 15需求低於iPhone 14故基本面在2H23面臨成長壓力。
- Apple的生成式AI的進展顯著落後競爭對手，故不預期Apple在法說會提到太多AI方面的內容。
- Vision Pro的2024年出貨預估仍相當小，故目前難以此推升Apple與Apple供應鏈股價。
- 目前沒有任何跡象顯示Apple會在2024年會將AI邊緣運算與硬體產品整合，故目前難以此激勵Apple與Apple供應鏈股價。
- 2Q23 is the traditional off-season, and 3Q23 is the transition period between legacy and new iPhones, so usually the financial results and guidance at this time are usually not attention-grabbing.
- If Apple’s recent EPS can be better than the market’s expectations due to service business performance, component cost decline, and exchange rate changes, it will be beneficial for Apple’s stock price in the short term.
- There will still be a small number of suppliers with clear growth trends in Apple’s supply chain (e.g., market share gains, specification upgrades driving ASP increases, etc.). However, 2H23 shipment forecasts for Apple’s hardware products in 2H23 are almost universally weaker in 2H23 than in 2H22. Therefore, unless Apple clearly indicates that it’s positive about market demand in 2H23 or 2024, this financial report is unlikely to be a positive for most suppliers’ stock prices.
- Although the 4Q22 iPhone shipments had declined due to the shutdown of Hon Hai’s Zhengzhou factory in November 2022, most component shipment plans didn’t change significantly in 4Q22. Unless the demand for the iPhone 15 is better than market expectations after launch, most of the suppliers will face growth pressure in 2H23 as the demand for iPhone 15 is lower than that of iPhone 14.
- The progress of Apple’s generative AI is significantly behind its competitors, so I don’t expect Apple to talk too much about AI on the earnings call.
- The Vision Pro shipment forecast for 2024 is still quite small, so it’s currently difficult to benefit the stock prices of Apple and its supply chain currently.
- At present, there is no sign that Apple will integrate AI edge computing and hardware products in 2024, so it is difficult to benefit the stock prices of Apple and its supply chain.
