Apple AR/MR Headset Prediction Update: 2nd, Shipments, Schedule, and Pancake Lens Supply Chain

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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Jul 11, 2022

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1. The high ASP Pancake lens is the key optical component of Apple AR/MR, directly affecting the visual experience and form factor design.
2. The second-generation Apple AR/MR may have high-end and more-affordable models, which will launch in 1H25, and component suppliers will start shipping in 2H24.
3. Apple AR/MR shipments may reach 10 million units as soon as 2025 or 2026, thanks to the second-generation Apple AR/MR product segmentation strategy and ecosystem.
4. The first-generation Apple AR/MR Pancake lens suppliers are Genius (main supplier) and Young Optics (second supplier). GIS is the Pancake lens lamination supplier. The above suppliers are expected to be in the second-generation supply chain.
5. The first-generation Apple AR/MR will adopt two 3P Pancake modules (one for each eye). The total cost of the Pancake lenses is about $30–40 (USD), roughly equivalent to 20 high-end 7P lenses. It provides a new growth driver for Apple’s optical supply chain in the medium and long term. The cost of the second-generation Pancake lenses will likely increase to improve the visual experience and form factor design.
6. Largan will likely be a new supplier of the Pancake lens for the second-generation Apple AR/MR headset and expand production capacity for this order in its new Taichung plant.

Apple AR/MR頭盔預測更新：第二代、出貨量、時程與Pancake透鏡供應鏈

1. 高單價的Pancake透鏡是Apple AR/MR的關鍵光學零組件，直接影響視覺體驗與外觀設計。
2. 第二代Apple AR/MR可能有高階與較低售價兩個機型，預計在1H25出貨，零組件供應商預計自2H24開始出貨。
3. 受益於第二代Apple AR/MR產品區隔策略與生態，Apple AR/MR出貨量最快可能在2025或2026年達1,000萬部。
4. 第一代Apple AR/MR的Pancake透鏡供應商為玉晶光 (主要供應商) 與揚明光 (第二供應商)。GIS為Pancake透鏡貼合供應商。預計以上供應商均在第二代供應鏈中。
5. 第一代Apple AR/MR將配備2個3P Pancake模組，Pancake透鏡總成本約$30–40 (USD)，約等同20個高階7P鏡頭，為Apple光學供應鏈中長期新成長動能。預計第二代Pancake透鏡成本或再提升，以改善視覺體驗與外觀設計。
6. 大立光可能成為第二代Apple AR/MR頭盔的Pancake透鏡新供應商，預計將在台中新廠房為此訂單擴產。