Apple cuts 2024 & 2025 Vision Pro shipment forecasts, unfavorable to MR headset, Pancake, and Micro OLED trends / Apple下修2024 & 2025年Vision Pro出貨預測,不利MR頭戴裝置、Pancake與Micro OLED產業之趨勢
2 min readApr 23, 2024
My latest survey is as follows:
- Apple has cut its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400–450k units (vs. market consensus of 700–800k units or more).
- Apple cut orders before launching Vision Pro in non-US markets, which means that demand in the US market has fallen sharply beyond expectations, making Apple take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets.
- Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, so there may be no new Vision Pro model in 2025 (the previous expectation was that there would be a new model in 2H25/4Q25). Apple now expects Vision Pro shipments to decline YoY in 2025.
The weak-than-expected Vision Pro demand means that the following new trends are likely to be below market expectations.
- MR headset devices. The challenge for Vision Pro is to address the lack of key applications, price, and headset comfort without sacrificing the see-through user experience. In contrast, VR is also a niche market, but at least there are proven successful applications (games), and trend visibility is better than MR.
- Pancake. As the upgrade of optical specifications for smartphones has slowed down for several years, investors expect Pancake, which has a significantly higher unit price than lenses, to become a new growth driver for the optical sector. Weaker-than-expected shipments of Vision Pro will lower Pancake’s contribution to the optical industry in the foreseeable future than investors’ expectations.
- Micro OLED. Vision Pro/MR headset is the most critical application of Micro OLED. With key applications not growing as expected, the timeframe of mass production and adoption of Micro OLEDs in other small-sized consumer electronics devices will be delayed.
我的最新調查與如下:
- Apple已下修2024年Vision Pro出貨量至40–45萬部 (vs. 市場共識的70–80萬部或以上)。
- Apple在非美國市場發售Vision Pro前便砍單,代表美國市場需求急劇下滑超過預期,讓Apple連帶保守看待非美國市場需求。
- Apple正在重新檢視與調整頭戴裝置發展藍圖,故Vision Pro在2025年可能無新機種 (vs. 先前預期2H25/4Q25會有新機型),Apple目前預期2025年Vision Pro出貨量可能會YoY衰退。
Vision Pro砍單意味著下列新趨勢發展可能低於市場預期
- MR頭戴裝置。Vision Pro的挑戰在於不犧牲透視 (see-through) 的使用者體驗下,需同時解決欠缺關鍵應用、售價與頭戴舒適度的問題。相較之下,VR雖然也是利基市場,但至少有已經被驗證成功的應用 (遊戲) 與趨勢能見度優於MR。
- Pancake。因手機的光學規格升級已放緩數年,投資人期待單價顯著高於鏡頭的Pancake能成為光學產業的新成長驅動。Vision Pro低於預期的出貨量將讓Pancake可見未來對光學產業的營收貢獻低於投資人預期。
- Micro OLED。Vision Pro/MR頭戴裝置為Micro OLED的最關鍵應用。在關鍵應用成長趨勢不如預期下,Micro OLED大量生產與被其他小尺寸消費電子裝置採用的時程將延後。