Apple、iPhone 14與供應鏈的近期趨勢預測 / Some predictions for the recent trends of Apple, iPhone 14, and supply chain

Apple、iPhone 14與供應鏈的近期趨勢預測：

1. 在產線轉換後，iPhone 14 Pro系列出貨佔整體iPhone 14出貨量在2H22達60–65% (vs. 先前預估55–60%)。
2. iPhone 14 Pro Max在2H22佔整體iPhone 14出貨量約30–35%，為最受歡迎的iPhone 14機種。
3. iPhone產品組合轉佳，故Apple可能在10月底的財報會議上，對4Q22提出對正向展望 (假設iPhone在11月下旬後的出貨量沒有顯著下滑)。
4. 若Apple對4Q22展望正向，則iPhone 14 Pro系列的主要受益者的4Q22 iPhone事業之營收與利潤可能有潛在上調空間，包括：
   (1) Sony (48MP CIS獨家供應商)
   (2) 大立光 (長焦鏡頭主要供應商與超廣角VCM二供)。
   (3) LG Innotek (後置CCM獨家供應商)
   (4) Alps (長焦VCM獨家供應商)
   (5) Minebea (超廣角VCM主要供應商)
   (6) Samsung Display (幾乎是Pro面板獨家供應商)
   (7) 工業富聯/鴻準 (不銹鋼金屬中框主要供應商)
   (8) 鴻海 (Pro系列獨家EMS)

Some predictions for the recent trends of Apple, iPhone 14, and supply chain

1. After the production line switch, iPhone 14 Pro models will account for 60–65% of the total iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 (vs. 55–60% previously estimated).
2. The iPhone 14 Pro Max accounts for 30–35% of the total iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 and is the most popular iPhone 14 model.
3. The iPhone product mix is improving, so Apple may offer a positive outlook for 4Q22 at the next earnings call in late October (assuming iPhone shipments won’t decline significantly after late November).
4. If Apple offers a positive outlook for 4Q22, the primary beneficiaries of the iPhone 14 Pro models may have potential upsides in the revenue and profit of the iPhone business in 4Q22, including:
   (1) Sony (sole supplier of 48MP CIS)
   (2) Largan (main supplier of the telephoto lens and the second supplier of the ultra-wide camera VCM).
   (3) LG Innotek (sole supplier of rear CCM)
   (4) Alps (sole supplier of the telephoto camera VCM)
   (5) Minebea (main supplier of ultra-wide camera VCM)
   (6) Samsung Display (almost the sole supplier of the Pro model’s panels)
   (7) FII/Foxconn Technology (main supplier of the stainless steel metal frame)
   (8) Hon Hai (sole EMS of Pro models)