Apple’s 4Q23 iPhone revenue and profit will likely be better than expected and easily achieve YoY growth based on early iPhone 15 sales results survey/ 從iPhone 15 初期銷售結果調查來看，Apple 4Q23的iPhone營收與利潤可望將優於預期與輕易實現YoY成長

Apple’s 4Q23 iPhone revenue and profit will likely be better than expected and easily achieve YoY growth based on early iPhone sales results survey thanks to better product mix and shipment growth. (I still maintain my estimate of iPhone 15 shipments in 2H23 of 80 million units, while iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 were 76 million due to the Hon Hai Zhengzhou factory shut down in November last year).

1. From the telephoto camera module orders, which represents the most significant bottleneck in the supply chain, the iPhone 15 Pro Max order for this year has been revised upward to 35 million units (vs. 28 million shipments for the 14 Pro Max last year), serving as the primary growth driver for Apple’s iPhone business in 4Q23.
2. Due to initially lower expectations, the iPhone 15 Plus may see an increase in orders as sales results are better than feared.
3. The iPhone 15 and 15 Pro fall short of expectations, and there is a likelihood of order cuts for these two models if Apple doesn’t cut their prices.

從iPhone初期銷售結果調查來看，Apple 4Q23的iPhone營收與利潤可望將優於預期，並因更佳的產品組合與更高出貨量故輕易實現YoY成長。(我仍維持iPhone 15 2H23 出貨量為 8,000 萬部的預估，而iPhone 14 由於去年 11 月鴻海鄭州工廠停工事件，2H22 出貨量為7,600萬部)。

1. 根據供應鏈最大瓶頸的長焦相機模組訂單，iPhone 15 Pro Max今年訂單已上修到3,500萬部 (vs. 14 Pro Max去年的2,800萬部出貨)，是推升4Q23 iPhone事業成長的最大推手。
2. iPhone 15 Plus因預期低，故反而因銷售結果沒那麼差而可能增加訂單。
3. iPhone 15與15 Pro則均低於預期，如果Apple不降價銷售，有可能會砍單。