Apple’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports: Key Points to Watch / Apple第四財季業績關注重點
1. 3Q23 (fourth-quarter fiscal 2023) result generally aligns with market consensus. The more significant impact on the stock price comes from Apple’s expectations for 4Q23 and updates on investor-focused topics, such as the development progress on generative AI services.
2. The major potential risk for 4Q23 is in the YoY growth of iPhone shipments in North America (estimated 5–10%), which, at best, may barely offset the year-over-year decline in the Chinese market (estimated 10–15%).
3. Looking ahead, investors will focus on 1) the development progress of generative AI services, 2) market trends in China amid geopolitical risks, and 3) the outlook for Vision Pro.
1) Development progress of generative AI services:
Apple may not offer much meaningful information, but the Capex can provide a rough indication of Apple’s progress. The supply of AI servers has seen significant improvements starting from Q4 2023, and Apple should be able to purchase considerably more AI servers than in the previous three quarters.
2) Market trends in China amid geopolitical risks:
Investors are concerned about Apple’s plans to move its supply chain out of China and the decline in iPhone shipments in the Chinese market. However, Apple may not provide much substantive information on this.
3) Outlook for Vision Pro:
Among the topics investors focus on, this is the only one where Apple is more likely to provide more details. If Apple can offer more information, such as pre-order/launch dates, ecosystem development, and marketing strategies, it could benefit the market’s expectations for the head-mounted display device trend.
1. 3Q23 (第四財季) 業績大致符合市場共識，對股價更大的影響來自Apple對4Q23預期與投資人關注議題的更新 (如：生成式AI服務研發進度等)。
2. 4Q23的主要潛在風險在於最好情況下，iPhone出貨在北美的YoY成長 (5–10%) 可能頂多剛好抵銷在中國市場的YoY衰退 (10–15%)。
3. 展望未來，投資人將聚焦在：1) 生成式AI服務的研發進度、(2) 地緣政治風險下的中國市場趨勢、與3) Vision Pro展望。
1) 生成式AI服務的研發進度：
Apple可能不會提供太多有意義的訊息，但從資本支出可約略判斷Apple的進展。AI伺服器的供應自4Q23開始有顯著改善，Apple理應可購得較前3個季度明顯多的AI服務器。
2) 地緣政治風險下的中國市場趨勢：
投資人關注的是Apple供應鏈移出中國的規劃與iPhone出貨在中國市場的衰退，但Apple可能不會提供太多有意義的訊息
3) Vision Pro展望：
這是在投資人聚焦中，唯一Apple較有可能透露更多細節的主題。若Apple能提供更多資訊，例如：預購/銷售日、生態建置與營銷策略等，則可能有助於市場對頭戴裝置趨勢的預期。
