Apple在新款14"與16" MacBook Pro量產前砍單20–30%，為高階ABF與Mini-LED產業的潛在結構性風險 / Apple cuts shipment forecasts for new 14" & 16" MacBook Pro by 20–30% before mass production, and it’s a structural risk to the high-end ABF & Mini-LED sectors

我的最新調查指出，新款14"與16" MacBook Pro將在4Q22進入量產。然而，在量產前Apple已砍單4Q22新機種出貨預估20–30%。MacBook Pro需求顯著低於預期為ABF載板與Mini-LED產業的結構性風險。

1. Apple非常罕見在旺季/新產品量產前砍單，意味著需求顯著低於Apple預期，故MacBook出貨量至少在1H23可能將持續YoY衰退。
2. 經濟衰退與WFH需求下滑是砍單主因，這兩個負面影響可能將至少持續6–9個月。
3. 新款14"與16" MacBook Pro的主要升級僅為採用新處理器，新賣點有限也可能是造成需求低於預期的原因。
4. MacBook Pro最大的賣點就是Apple處理器 (採用高階ABF載板) 與Mini-LED顯示器，故MacBook Pro需求顯著低於預期為高階ABF載板與Mini-LED產業的結構性風險。
5. 4Q22總體MacBook出貨預估因新款MacBook Pro砍單故下修15–20%，2022年MacBook出貨量衰退10–15% YoY(vs. 市場共識為5–10% YoY衰退)。
6. MacBook Pro標準機型/客製化機型在Apple官方網站上的出貨時間由2–3個月前的「4–6週/6–8週」顯著減少至現在的「有現貨/1週內」，主因為需求顯著衰退。
7. 近年來ABF產業擴產的主要是為了滿足Apple處理器與Intel伺服器處理器的樂觀預期。繼Intel伺服器處理器出貨放緩後，MacBook Pro/高階Apple處理器在4Q22砍單與1H23出貨YoY衰退的潛在風險，將會提升高階ABF產能在2023年供過於求的機率。
8. Mini-LED需求主要由Apple所帶動，MacBook Pro在4Q22砍單與1H23出貨YoY衰退的潛在風險，可能會明顯減弱2023年Mini-LED裝置出貨動能。
9. 雖然Apple的MacBook砍單幅度小於競爭對手，但這也意味著Apple的高階產品需求仍無法免於受到經濟衰退/通膨影響，故投資人須密切關注iPhone 14 Pro的需求是否也會被經濟衰退/通膨所影響。

My latest survey indicates that the new 14" and 16" MacBook Pro will enter mass production in 4Q22. However, Apple cut 4Q22 shipment forecasts of new models by 20–30% before mass production. The MacBook Pro order cut is a structural risk for the ABF substrate and Mini-LED sectors.

1. It is infrequent for Apple to cut orders before the peak season/new product mass production, which means that the demand is significantly lower than Apple’s expectations, so MacBook shipments may continue to decline YoY at least in 1H23.
2. The economic recession and the decline in WFH demand are the main reasons for this order cut. These two negative effects will likely last for at least 6–9 months.
3. The main upgrade of the new 14" and 16" MacBook Pros is only the adoption of new processors. The limited new selling points may also result in lower-than-expected demand.
4. The biggest selling point of the MacBook Pro is the Apple processor (adopting high-end ABF substrate) and Mini-LED display, so the significantly lower-than-expected demand for MacBook Pro is a structural risk to the high-end ABF substrate and Mini-LED sectors.
5. The total MacBook shipment forecast in 4Q22 is cut by 15–20% due to the new MacBook Pro order cut, and MacBook shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 2022 (vs. market consensus of a 5–10% YoY decline).
6. The shipping time of MacBook Pro standard models/customized models on Apple’s official website has been significantly reduced from “4–6 weeks/6–8 weeks” 2–3 months ago to “in-stock/ within one week,” mainly due to a marked decline in demand.
7. The main reason for the capacity expansion of the ABF sector in recent years is to meet the optimistic expectations of Apple processors and Intel server processors. Following the slowdown in Intel server processor shipments, the MacBook Pro/high-end Apple processor order cuts in 4Q22, and the potential risk of YoY decline in 1H23 shipments will increase the probability of oversupply of high-end ABF in 2023.
8. The demand for Mini-LED is mainly driven by Apple. So MacBook Pro order cut in 4Q22 and the potential risk of a YoY decline in shipments in 1H23 will likely significantly wane shipment momentum of Mini-LED devices in 2023.
9. Although the order cut of Apple’s MacBook is smaller than those of its competitors, it also means that Apple’s high-end product demand is not immune to the economic recession/inflation, so investors should pay close attention to whether the demand for the iPhone 14 Pro will also be affected by the economic recession/inflation.