Dell’s total server shipments are expected to return to significant growth of about 15% YoY in 2024 thanks to strong AI server demand, well above the industry average of 3–5% YoY / Dell整體伺服器出貨在2024年可望受惠AI伺服器強勁需求而恢復顯著成長約15% YoY，顯著高於產業平均水準3–5% YoY
2 min readNov 6, 2023
- My latest supply chain check indicates that the higher-than-expected demand for AI servers has prompted Dell to request a significant production expansion of about 200% for AI server bottleneck components, such as chassis and motherboard SMT, to meet the future needs of enterprise customers. The increase in AI server shipments will also benefit conventional server demand, with Dell expecting total server shipments to rebound to 15% YoY growth in 2024 (vs. an about 10% YoY decline in 2023).
- Critical considerations for enterprise customers to build AI servers instead of fully utilizing cloud AI hosting include ease of management, data security, and customization requirements to integrate with the company’s existing IT infrastructures.
- The reasons why Dell can obtain better-than-expected AI server orders in the enterprise market include launching PowerEdge servers with Nvidia AI chips ahead of competitors and its collaboration with Meta to help enterprise customers deploy Llama 2 AI models locally.
- The deployment of AI servers benefits conventional server demand primarily because conventional servers need to upgrade to run AI applications, and AI servers can increase the utilization of conventional servers.
- Due to AI chip supply constraints, Dell’s 2023 AI server shipments will be 10,000 to 15,000 units or less. However, shipments will increase significantly to 25,000 to 30,000 units or more in 2024. With the momentum of AI servers, Dell’s conventional server shipments will also grow. Therefore, Dell currently expects total server shipments to resume growth to 15% YoY in 2024 (vs. a decline of about 10% YoY in 2023).
- 我的最新供應鏈調查指出，受益於企業對AI伺服器高於預期的需求，Dell已要求為產能瓶頸的AI伺服器零部件 (如機殼、主板SMT等) 大幅擴產約200%，以滿足企業客戶未來需求。而AI伺服器出貨又會有利傳統伺服器需求，故Dell目前預期2024年伺服器總出貨量可望恢復成長至15% YoY (vs. 2023年約10% YoY衰退)。
- 企業客戶建置AI伺服器，而不全然採用雲端AI主機代管的關鍵考量，包括易於管理、資料安全、與企業既有IT系統整合的客製化需求等。
- Dell能在企業市場取得優於預期的AI伺服器訂單原因包括領先競爭對手推出採用Nvidia AI晶片的PowerEdge伺服器，以及與Meta合作以支援企業客戶部署Llama 2 AI模型。
- 部署AI伺服器有利傳統伺服器需求，主要原因為需升級傳統伺服器以運作AI應用，與AI服務器會提高傳統伺服器利用率。
- 因AI晶片供應限制，故Dell的2023年AI伺服器出貨量為1–1.5萬台或以下，但預期2024年可望顯著成長至2.5–3萬台或以上。在AI伺服器帶動下，Dell傳統伺服器出貨也將成長。故Dell目前預期2024年伺服器總出貨量可望恢復成長至15% YoY (vs. 2023年約10% YoY衰退)。
