iPhone 14 首周末線上預購調查與分析 (根據Apple在主要市場線上商店的交貨時間) / iPhone 14 first weekend online pre-order survey and analysis (based on the delivery time of Apple’s online stores in major markets)

結論：

1. iPhone 14 Pro Max、Pro與兩款標準機型的預購結果分別為好、中性與差 (與iPhone 13系列相較)。
2. 雖然iPhone 14系列產品組合改善，且iPhone 14 Pro Max的預購情況優於iPhone 13 Pro Max，但目前預購結果對Apple是中性的。目前尚不清楚Apple是否會提高 Pro機型的出貨預測，但iPhone 14和14 Plus (佔整體iPhone 14出貨比重約45%) 砍單的可能性正在增加。
3. 建議投資者近期關注Pro機型的主要受益者，因Pro機型的更多出貨分配和更高零組件價格，Pro機型主要受益者可能會在1Q23淡季不淡。對於不是Pro機型主要受益者的供應商，iPhone事業的營收可能將在9月或10月開始顯著下降。

調查與分析：

1. 超過4週的交貨時間可能反映良好的需求，而iPhone 14 Pro Max與14 Pro的交貨時間都超過4週 (Pro Max/Pro大約為6/5週)。
2. iPhone 14和14 Plus將在上市當天有現貨，反映需求不振。就目前而言，iPhone 14與14 Plus的預購結果比iPhone SE 3和iPhone 13 mini差 (SE 3與13 mini都在1H22 遭遇砍單)。
3. iPhone 14 Plus是iPhone 13 mini的替代品。然而，此新產品預購結果明顯低於預期，這意味著Apple今年針對標準機型的產品區隔策略失敗。
4. iPhone 14 Pro Max/14 Pro的交貨時間略長/差不多 (與iPhone 13 Pro Max/13 Pro相比)，iPhone 14/14 Plus機型的交貨時間則更短 (與iPhone 13/13 mini相比)。
5. 毫無疑問，Pro機型的預購結果再次證明了Apple在經濟惡化的情況下仍然擁有眾多忠實和黏著度高的客戶，但這並不意味著Apple會立即增加Pro 機型的訂單。Apple是否會增加Pro訂單取決於經濟衰退期間，Pro機型的強勁需求能持續多久。
6. 如果iPhone 14與14 Plus在發售後需求沒有改善，則Apple可能會在數週內下調iPhone 14和14 Plus的11月與之後的出貨預測。
7. 根據目前的預購結果，iPhone 14 Pro機型的強勁需求可能將至少持續到11月。但假設Apple之後沒有增加 iPhone Pro 的訂單，在這種情況下，iPhone 14與14 Plus的潛在砍單可能會抵消因更佳iPhone 產品組合 (iPhone ASP提升) 在4Q22末或1Q23對Apple帶來的營收成長。
8. 建議投資者近期關注Pro機型的主要受益者，受益於Pro機型的更多出貨分配和更高零組件價格，Pro機型受益者可能會在1Q23淡季不淡。對於不是Pro機型主要受益者的供應商，iPhone事業的營收可能將在9月或10月開始顯著下降。

Conclusion:

1. Pre-order results of iPhone 14 Pro Max, Pro, and two standard models are good, neutral, and bad, respectively (vs. iPhone 13 series).
2. Though the iPhone 14 series product mix improves and iPhone 14 Pro Max pre-order is better vs. iPhone 13 Pro Max, the pre-order result is currently neutral to Apple. It’s unclear whether Apple will increase the Pro models shipment forecast, but the likelihood of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus (accounting for about 45% of the overall iPhone 14 shipments) cutting orders is growing.
3. Suggest investors watch Pro models’ major beneficiaries recently, who may beat seasonality in 1Q23 thanks to more shipment allocation of Pro models and higher component prices. Revenue from the iPhone business will likely start to decline significantly in September or October for suppliers who are not the major beneficiaries of Pro models.

Survey and analysis:

1. The delivery time of more than four weeks may reflect good demand. The delivery time for iPhone 14 Pro Max and 14 Pro is longer than four weeks (Pro Max/Pro to be about six/five weeks).
2. iPhone 14 and 14 Plus will be in stock on launch day, reflecting lackluster demand. As it stands now, the pre-order result for iPhone 14 and 14 Plus is worse than iPhone SE 3 and iPhone 13 mini (SE 3 and 13 mini both suffering from an order cut in 1H22).
3. The iPhone 14 Plus is the replacement for the iPhone 13 mini. However, this new product’s pre-order result is significantly lower than expected, meaning Apple’s product segmentation strategy for standard models fails this year.
4. The delivery time of iPhone 14 Pro Max/14 Pro is slightly longer/about the same vs. 13 Pro Max/13 Pro, and that of iPhone 14/14 Plus models is shorter vs. iPhone 13/13 mini.
5. No doubt, the pre-order result for Pro models proves again that Apple still has numerous loyal and sticky customers amid the deteriorating economy, but it doesn’t mean Apple will increase orders of Pro models at once. Whether Apple will increase Pro orders depends on how long the strong demand for Pro models can last amid the recession.
6. Apple may cut iPhone 14 and 14 Plus shipment forecasts for November and beyond within a few weeks if the demand for the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus doesn’t improve after the launch.
7. Based on the current pre-order result, strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models will likely last until at least November. But suppose Apple doesn’t increase iPhone Pro orders afterward. In that case, the potential order cut of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus could offset Apple’s revenue growth from a better iPhone product mix (iPhone ASP increase) in late 4Q22 or 1Q23.
8. Suggest investors watch Pro models’ major beneficiaries recently, who may beat seasonality in 1Q23 thanks to more shipment allocation of Pro models and higher component prices. Revenue from the iPhone business will likely start to decline significantly in September or October for suppliers who are not the major beneficiaries of Pro models.