iPhone 15首週末預購觀察 / Thoughts on the iPhone 15 first weekend pre-order
2 min readSep 17, 2023
- iPhone 15 Pro Max需求如先前預期般強勁，優於去年的iPhone 14 Pro Max。
- 兩款標準版iPhone 15需求與去年差不多。
- iPhone 15 Pro需求較去年弱，主因之一可能是更多高階用戶今年轉向預購iPhone 15 Pro Max。
- iPhone 15 Pro Max的等待時間顯著比其他機種久，不全然是因為需求強勁造成。iPhone 15 Pro Max因量產時程較晚故目前出貨量較少，且目前生產問題較其他機型顯著嚴重。
- iPhone 15發佈會前因多家媒體報導中國政府禁用iPhone的新聞，故市場對iPhone 15預期較為保守。我認為iPhone. 15的預購結果其實與iPhone 14差不多，但因市場預期已先行調降，故iPhone 15預購結果反而比市場擔心的要好。
- 我不會說多家媒體報導中國政府禁用iPhone的新聞是錯誤的，但讀者的確很容易會被上述新聞所誤導。目前中國的共產黨員、公務員與國企僱員本來就不是iPhone主要的目標客戶，而且禁用iPhone是政府單位或國企的個別行為，故媒體報導禁用iPhone的事件實際上對iPhone在中國銷售影響並不顯著。
- 華為歸來不可能對iPhone毫無影響，但影響程度目前仍需觀察。不過，這影響不會表現在iPhone 15的中國市場預購上。會預購iPhone的人本來就是核心用戶或Apple粉絲，這些人本來就不是華為手機目前的目標客戶。
- 根據過去經驗，某些中國購物網站的iPhone預購數字會失真，因為預購不用付訂金，故無法反映真實的預購需求。
- 目前仍維持今年iPhone 15出貨量約8,000萬部的預估。
- Demand for the iPhone 15 Pro Max is robust, as previously expected, outpacing last year’s iPhone 14 Pro Max.
- Demand for the two standard iPhone 15 models is roughly on par with last year.
- Demand for the iPhone 15 Pro is weaker than last year, with one possible reason being a shift of more premium users to the iPhone 15 Pro Max this year.
- Wait times for the iPhone 15 Pro Max are significantly longer than for other models, but this is more than just due to high demand. Current iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments are lower due to a later mass production schedule, and its current production challenges are more pronounced than other models.
- Before the iPhone 15 media event, several media reports about the Chinese government banning the iPhone led to conservative market expectations for the iPhone 15. I think the pre-order results of iPhone 15 are actually similar to those of iPhone 14, but since the market expectations were lowered in advance, the pre-order results of iPhone 15 turned out to be better than feared.
- I wouldn’t say the media reports about the Chinese government banning the iPhone are wrong, but such news can easily mislead readers. Currently, members of the Chinese Communist Party, government employees, and employees of state-owned enterprises aren’t the iPhone’s primary target customers. Moreover, the iPhone ban is an isolated decision by specific government organizations or state-owned enterprises, so the impact of banning iPhones from these reports on iPhone sales in China is not significant.
- Huawei’s comeback will inevitably impact the iPhone, but the extent of this impact remains to be seen. However, this impact doesn’t manifest in the Chinese market pre-orders for the iPhone 15. Those who pre-order iPhones are core users or Apple fans, not the target customers for the current Huawei phones.
- Based on experience, some Chinese e-commerce sites may show skewed iPhone pre-order numbers because pre-orders do not require a deposit, so they don’t accurately reflect real demand.
- I still maintain my prediction that approximately 80 million units of the iPhone 15 will ship this year.
