iPhone 16系列生產資料更新： 3Q24、4Q24與1Q25的出貨計畫、 EMS的訂單比重等 / iPhone 16 series production data update: shipment plans for 3Q24, 4Q24 and 1Q25, EMS order allocations, etc
2 min readSep 9, 2024
- iPhone 16系列2024年出貨預估自8,700–8,800萬微調至8,800–8,900萬部，加單主要來自iPhone 16標準版。iPhone 16標準版、iPhone 16 Plus、iPhone 16 Pro與iPhone 16 Pro Max佔2024年iPhone 16系列出貨分別約26%、6%、30%與38%。
- iPhone 16系列8月與9月出貨分別約900萬與1,600萬部，依Apple新產品發佈時間，可推測Apple為iPhone 16預購準備了約1,500–1,700萬部。
- iPhone 16系列在3Q24出貨約成長10% YoY (vs. 3Q23的iPhone 15系列)，原因並非iPhone 16系列需求較強，而是賣最好的iPhone 15 Pro Max因潛望鏡生產初期良率低故3Q23出貨動能較弱。
- iPhone 16系列的4Q24出貨量約6,300萬部，衰退5–7% YoY (vs. 4Q23的iPhone 15系列)。
- iPhone 16系列的1Q25出貨顯著衰退53–55% QoQ，主因是進入淡季且來自新款iPhone SE4潛在替代效應。
- 嚴格來說，現在iPhone EMS只有鴻海跟立訊，自今年七月開始，立訊已是和碩iPhone製造事業的最大股東。鴻海與立訊的iPhone 16系列訂單生產比重分別為55–60%與40–45%。
- iPhone 16系列的預購結果可能會改變4Q24後半與1H25的生產計畫，故為接下來的追蹤重點。
- The 2024 shipment forecast for the iPhone 16 series increases slightly from 87–88 million units to 88–89 million units (compared to the 2023 iPhone 15 series of around 91 million units), mainly driven by higher demand for the iPhone 16 standard version. iPhone 16 standard version, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max account for approximately 26%, 6%, 30%, and 38% of iPhone 16 series shipments in 2024, respectively.
- iPhone 16 series shipments for August and September are around 9 million and 16 million units, respectively. Based on Apple’s new product announcement schedule, it’s estimated that Apple prepares 15–17 million units for iPhone 16 pre-orders.
- 3Q24 iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to grow about 10% YoY compared to 3Q23 iPhone 15 series. This growth isn’t due to better demand for the iPhone 16 series but because the iPhone 15 Pro Max, the best-selling model, had weaker shipment momentum in 3Q23 due to lower production yields of its tetraprism camera in the early stage.
- 4Q24 iPhone 16 series shipments are projected to reach around 63 million units, representing a 5–7% YoY decline compared to 4Q23’s iPhone 15 series.
- 1Q25 iPhone 16 series shipments are expected to decline significantly by 53–55% QoQ, primarily due to the seasonality and the potential cannibalization impact of the new iPhone SE4.
- Strictly speaking, the only iPhone EMS providers are now Foxconn and Luxshare ICT. Since July this year, Luxshare ICT has become the largest shareholder in Pegatron’s iPhone manufacturing business. Foxconn and Luxshare ICT are responsible for 55–60% and 40–45% of iPhone 16 series shipments, respectively.
- The pre-order of the iPhone 16 series could influence production plans for the second half of 4Q24 and 1H25, making the pre-order result the next point to watch closely.
