Kobo彩色電子書預購優於預期，今明年出貨量可望上修；關鍵供應商元太、振曜與天鈺趨勢分析 / Better-than-expected Kobo’s color e-reader pre-orders & potential upside for shipments this year and next; trend analysis of key suppliers E Ink, Netronix, and Fitipower

Kobo為全球第二大電子書閱讀器品牌，為挑戰領先者Amazon，故對推廣彩色電子書閱讀器更為積極

1. Kobo首次推出的新款彩色電子書閱讀器於5月1日開賣後已售罄，在緊急增加訂單後，目前大部分機型的出貨時間已改善並提前至5月8日，賣最好的白色Kobo Libra Colour出貨時間則改善至5月21日，部分機型如綑綁黑色保護蓋的黑色Kobo Libra Colour則仍處於無法訂購的狀態。
2. 即便在緊急加單後，目前其他市場 (如台灣) 的Kobo彩色電子書閱讀器出貨時間仍須等至6月上中旬。
3. 7吋的Kobo Libra Colour的需求優於6吋的Kobo Clara Colour，兩者原本的出貨比重約3:2，就目前預購結果看兩者比重差距可能會進一步擴大，這代表消費者偏好尺寸較大顯示器。因較高單價機型的出貨比重高，有利供應鏈營運動能。
4. Kobo彩色電子書閱讀器採用元太Kaleido彩色電子紙方案，使用者體驗優於預期，關鍵在於由黑白升級到彩色的視覺體驗改變巨大，以及對比度因採用元太與Nanocomp (已被瑞儀收購) 合作開發的前光技術「E Ink ComfortGaze」而有顯著改善。
5. Kobo彩色電子書的2024年訂單原本為100萬台，因首波發售優於預期故可能上修。我的供應鏈調查顯示，已有上游IC廠商準備200萬台以上的產能以因應潛在客戶需求，雖產能不完全代表出貨量，但也強化了上修原本100萬台訂單的可能性。
6. 因預購優於預期，Kobo將加速推出採用元太10.3吋的Kaleido彩色電子書閱讀器的計畫，若面板與組裝可滿足急單需求，則最快可望在2024年底之前推出。
7. 若強勁需求能持續數個月，則Kobo可能在2025年新增更高階的彩色電子書閱讀器 (採用元太的Gallery，對比度優於Kaleido) 產品線，並停止供應黑白電子書。

元太、振曜與天鈺為Kobo彩色電子書的關鍵供應商，以下為這三家供應商的趨勢分析

1. 元太為獨家顯示器供應商，Kaleido彩色電子紙的平均單價較黑白的高10–20%，毛利率較黑白略高。因元太的策略是用犧牲些許利潤以求顯著擴大整體潛在市場 (TAM) 並最終用電子紙取代實體紙，故長期競爭優勢與成長動能無慮，雖技術轉換時的營收與利潤可能面臨短期挑戰，然而待良率改善與市場開始結構性成長後，將顯著推升營運動能。展望2024年，元太在2Q24仍面臨ESL技術轉換與庫存清理問題，但2H24營運動能可望因Kaleido、Gallery與四色ESL大量出貨而顯著改善。
2. 振曜為獨家組裝供應商，Kobo彩色電子書閱讀器的ASP較黑白的高25–30%，毛利率的提升較電子紙明顯。振曜是非Amazon的最大電子書閱讀器組裝供應商，在非Amazon出貨量中供應比重超過80%。預計Kobo彩色電子書閱讀器對振曜的營收貢獻，將自5月開始較為顯著。振曜公布1Q24 EPS為1.51元，若以過去兩年的成長模式並考量到Kobo自2024年開始積極推廣彩色電子書閱讀器，振曜的1H24 EPS則可望約等同2023年，且2H24 EPS可能又優於1H24。
3. 天鈺為主要驅動IC供應商，同時為Kobo的新TCON供應商。在驅動IC方面，Kaleido的驅動IC與黑白的相較下，並無明顯技術升級，但來自電子書閱讀器TCON的新動能與非電子紙的中大尺寸DDI急單，可望推升2Q24營運動能。展望2H24，電子紙的貢獻將持續成長，關鍵在於四色ESL與Gallery大量出貨之際，驅動IC的平均單價也會隨之成長。

Kobo is the second-largest e-reader brand in the world. To challenge market leader Amazon, it is more aggressively promoting color e-readers

1. Kobo’s first new color e-readers sold out on May 1, and after an urgent increase in orders, shipping for most models has improved to May 8, The best-selling white Kobo Libra Colour shipping improved to May 21, and some models, such as the black Kobo Libra Colour bundled with a black cover, still unavailable for order.
2. Even after the urgent order increase, the current shipments of Kobo color e-readers in other markets (e.g., Taiwan) will still have to wait until early to mid-June.
3. Demand for the 7-inch Kobo Libra Colour is higher than that for the 6-inch Kobo Clara Colour. The initial shipping ratio between the two was approximately 3:2, and the current pre-order results indicate that the gap in the shipping ratio between the two may widen further. It means that consumers prefer the larger display, and the higher-priced model with a higher shipment ratio will favor the supply chain’s business momentum.
4. Kobo’s color e-readers adopt E Ink’s Kaleido color ePaper solution, and the user experience is better than expected. The key factors are the dramatic change in the visual experience from monochrome to color and the significant improvement in contrast using E Ink’s ComfortGaze, a front lighting technology developed by E Ink in collaboration with Nanocomp (already acquired by Radiant).
5. Kobo’s 2024 order for color e-readers was originally one million units but may be revised upwards due to better-than-expected first-wave sales. My latest supply chain check indicated that an upstream IC supplier has already prepared a production capacity of more than 2 million units to meet potential customer demand. Although the production capacity does not fully represent the shipment, it also increases the likelihood that the original order of one million units will be revised upwards.
6. Due to better-than-expected first-wave sales, Kobo will accelerate its plan to launch a larger color e-reader using E Ink’s 10.3-inch Kaleido and expects to launch it before the end of 2024 at the earliest if the panel and assembly capacity can meet the rush order demand.
7. If solid demand continues for a few months, Kobo could add new product lines of higher-end color e-readers (using E Ink’s Gallery, which has better contrast than Kaleido) and stop supplying monochrome e-readers in 2025.

E Ink, Netronix, and Fitipower are the key suppliers of Kobo color e-readers and the following trend analysis of these three suppliers

1. E Ink is the exclusive display supplier. The ASP of Kaleido (color e-paper) is 10–20% higher than that of monochrome e-paper, and its gross profit margin is slightly higher than that of monochrome e-paper. Because of its strategy of sacrificing little profit to significantly expand the total addressable market (TAM) and eventually replace physical paper with e-paper, there is no concern about E Ink’s long-term competitive advantage and growth momentum. Although revenue and profitability may face short-term challenges during the technology transition, the company will significantly boost its business momentum as the yield rate improves and the market grows structurally. Looking ahead to 2024, E Ink still faces ESL technology transition and destocking issues in 2Q24. However, business momentum is expected to improve significantly in 2H24 due to the massive shipments of Kaleido, Gallery, and four-color ESLs.
2. Netronix is the exclusive assembly supplier. The ASP of Kobo’s color e-readers is 25–30% higher than that of monochrome e-readers, and the gross margin improvement is more evident than that of e-paper. Netronix is the largest non-Amazon e-reader assembly supplier, supplying over 80% of non-Amazon shipments. Kobo’s color e-readers are expected to contribute significantly to Netronix’s revenues from May onwards. Netronix announced 1Q24 EPS of NT$1.51. Based on the growth pattern of the past two years and considering Kobo’s aggressive promotion of color e-readers from 2024, Netronix’s EPS in 1H24 will be roughly the same as in 2023, and EPS in 2H24 is likely to be better than in 1H24.
3. Fitipower is Kobo’s main driver IC supplier and is also Kobo’s new TCON supplier. Regarding driver ICs, Kaleido’s driver ICs do not have significant technology upgrades compared to monochrome e-paper. However, the new momentum from e-reader TCON and the non-e-paper DDI rush orders for medium and large sizes will benefit business momentum in 2Q24. Looking ahead to 2H24, the contribution of e-paper will continue to grow, with the key being in the mass shipments of four-color ESL and Gallery with higher-ASP DDIs.