Mate 60 Pro出貨預估顯著提升，華為對產業與股市的不可忽視之影響力回歸中 — Part 1 / Mate 60 Pro shipment estimates have increased significantly; Huawei’s undeniable influence on the industries and stock markets is coming back — Part 1

以下是最新調查與預估。

1. Mate 60 Pro自8月29日開賣後需求強勁，2H23出貨計畫已提升約20%至550–600萬部。
2. 對比舊款機型，顯而易見Mate 60 Pro的需求顯著強勁。支援4G的Mate 50 Pro在2022年9月發售，發售12個月後的累積出貨量達250萬部。支援5G的Mate 40 Pro在2020年10月發售，發售12個月後的累積出貨量達約600萬部。相較下，Mate 60 Pro出貨量在發售後僅4個月即可達550–600萬部。
3. 按此市場趨勢，Mate 60 Pro在發售12個月後的累積出貨量，預期至少將達到1,200萬部。
4. 排除潛在非商業風險下，受益於Mate 60 Pro需求與市場影響力，華為手機2023年出貨量將成長約65% YoY至3,800萬部。展望2024年，華為手機出貨量可望將至少達到6,000萬部，為全球手機品牌中出貨成長動能最強者。
5. 華為供應鏈因Mate 60 Pro的強勁需求而成為股市焦點，目前可分為以下四種：
   (1) 半導體自主可控。中國受惠廠商有許多，主要如：中芯國際 (晶圓代工)、唯捷創芯 (L-PAMiD)、聖邦股份 (電源)、南芯半導體 (電源)、美芯晟 (無線充電) 與長電科技 (封測)。
   (2) 非A股的半導體相關供應商。主要包括穩懋 (砷化鎵上游與生產)、GlobalFoundries (SOI)、與Murata (濾波器)。
   (3) 華為創新規格。華為是Android品牌中的衛星通訊推廣領先者，受惠廠商為華力創通 (晶片)。
   (4) 光學可說是華為最積極升級的規格之一，受惠廠商包括大立光(鏡頭)、舜宇光學 (模組)、韋爾股份 (CIS)、思特威 (CIS)、與比路電子 (VCM)。

Below are the latest surveys and estimates.

1. Demand for the Mate 60 Pro has been strong since its launch on August 29, and the 2H23 shipment plan has increased by about 20% to 5.5–6 million units.
2. Compared with legacy models, it’s obvious that the demand for Mate 60 Pro is significantly stronger. The 4G-supported Mate 50 Pro was released in September 2022, and cumulative shipments reached about 2.5 million units 12 months after launch. The 5G-supported Mate 40 Pro was released in October 2020, with cumulative shipments reaching approximately 6 million units 12 months after launch. In comparison, Mate 60 Pro shipments reached 5.5–6 million units in just 4 months after launch.
3. Based on this market trend, cumulative shipments of Mate 60 Pro are expected to reach at least 12 million units 12 months after launch.
4. Excluding potential non-commercial risks, Huawei’s smartphone shipments will increase by approximately 65% YoY to 38 million units in 2023, benefiting from the demand and market influence of Mate 60 Pro. Looking ahead to 2024, Huawei’s smartphone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million units, making it the world’s mobile phone brand with the most robust shipment growth momentum.
5. Huawei’s supply chain has become the focus of stock markets due to the strong demand for Mate 60 Pro, which can be divided into the following four categories:
   (1) Self-supporting semiconductor. There are many beneficiary manufacturers in China, mainly such as SMIC (foundry), Vanchip (L-PAMiD), SG Micro (power), Southchip Semiconductor (power), Maxic (wireless charging), and JCET (packaging & testing).
   (2) Non-A-share semiconductor-related suppliers, mainly including Win Semi (GaAs upstream and production), GlobalFoundries (SOI), and Murata (filter).
   (3) Huawei’s innovative specifications. Huawei is the leader in promoting satellite communications among Android brands, and the beneficiary is HWA Create (chip).
   (4) Optics can be said to be one of Huawei’s most actively upgraded specifications. Beneficiaries include Largan Optical (lens), Sunny Optical (CCM), Will Semi (CIS), Smartsens (CIS), and Billu (VCM ).