New Growth Focus of VR/Headset Industry in Post-Meta Era: Meta’s Competitors, Chinese Market, and Apple/Apple Supply Chain
- Conclusion
(1) One of the keys to the VR industry’s rapid growth in the past 2–3 years is Meta sold VR headsets at a loss and aggressively promoted its VR business. The VR industry/ecosystem has matured, so even if Meta currently slows down its investment in Reality Labs/VR business, it won’t hinder VR industry’s continuous growth.
(2) Meta’s VR hardware investment cut will benefit other VR headset brands amid VR industry’s continuous growth. In addition, the vast potential demand in the Chinese market and Apple AR/MR, which will likely be announced in January 2023, will also favor the continued rapid growth of the headset sector.
2. Meta is slowing down its hardware investment (mainly reducing VR hardware investment and postponing server orders) due to the economic recession. But it is worth noting that Meta’s VR headset order cut is also due to the risk of recession caused by structural challenges in its core business of advertising and social platform (e.g., iPhone privacy policy changes).
(1) However, the demand for VR in gaming/multimedia entertainment has been proven, and the continuous growth of the VR industry is a clear trend.
(2) Meta sells VR headsets at a loss and uses the price advantage to gain a high market share, but this strategy is unsustainable amid the risk of core business recession, which will benefit other existing VR brands’ market share gain.
3. New structural changes in the VR/headset industry are emerging, including:
(1) Meta’s slowdown in VR hardware investment is beneficial to other existing VR headset brands.
(2) China’s VR industry started slower than overseas markets, but the hardware and content/service markets are growing rapidly.
(3) The establishment of the Metaverse Standards Forum favors the industry’s growth.
(4) Apple is a game-changer for the headset industry.
4. The current VR/headset brands worthy of attention include Sony, Microsoft, Valve, Pico, HTC, etc.
(1) Sony’s influence in the gaming/multimedia entertainment industry is more potent than that of Meta. PS VR2 will likely release in 1Q23, and the supply chain will ship about 1.5 million units in 2H22. It is expected to see more AAA game titles will support Sony’s PS VR2 in the future, which will boost the influence of VR headsets in the gaming/multimedia entertainment industry.
(2) Pico is China’s leading VR headset brand and growing rapidly, benefiting from the huge potential demand in China. Pico VR headset shipment will increase at least 40–50% YoY to 1–1.5 million units in 2022. Meta’s slowdown in VR hardware investment helps Pico grow in non-Chinese markets.
(3) HTC’s VR headset shipment would increase by 30–40% YoY or more in 2022. HTC’s non-Chinese market would benefit from Meta’s slowdown in VR hardware investment. The cooperation with Lenovo Research will also help HTC’s VR business to grow globally, especially in China.
(4) Microsoft would release the new Hololens in 2H22, and Valve is currently developing a new headset. Both are beneficial to the overall industry.
5. Apple will be a game-changer for headsets.
(1) Although Apple has repeatedly reiterated its focus on AR, I believe Apple AR/MR supporting video see-thru could also offer an excellent immersive experience. Therefore, the launch of Apple AR/MR will further boost the demand for immersive gaming/multimedia entertainment.
(2) Apple AR/MR would be the most complicated product Apple has ever designed, so many existing suppliers are also in the Apple AR/MR supply chain.
(3) Benefiting from Apple AR/MR’s innovative experience, Apple and Apple supply chain would be re-rated in the next 2–3 years, which favors the stock price.
(4) Apple is an industry leader with significant competitive advantages and doesn’t need to join the Metaverse Standards Forum now.
(5) After Apple launches AR/MR headset, I think Apple’s global rivals will compete to imitate it, leading the headset hardware industry to the next stage of rapid growth and benefiting the related services and content ecosystem.
後Meta時代的VR/頭戴產業新成長焦點：Meta的競爭對手、中國市場與Apple/Apple供應鏈
- 結論：
(1) 過去2–3年Meta賠錢賣VR頭戴與積極宣傳VR事業，是VR產業快速成長的關鍵之一。現在即便Meta放緩對Reality Labs/VR事業投資，因VR產業/生態已趨成熟，故無礙VR產業持續成長。
(2) 在VR產業持續成長下，Meta減少VR硬體投資有利其他VR頭戴品牌。此外，龐大潛在需求的中國市場與預期將在2023年1月發表的Apple AR/MR也將促進頭戴產業持續快速成長。
2. Meta因為經濟衰退故放緩硬體事業投資 (主要是減少VR硬體投資與推遲伺服器訂單)。但值得注意的是，Meta砍VR頭戴訂單也是因為自身廣告與社群平台核心業務面臨結構性挑戰造成的衰退風險 (如：iPhone隱私權政策改變)。
(1) 然而，VR在遊戲/多媒體娛樂的需求已被驗證，VR產業持續成長已是明確趨勢。
(2) Meta賠錢賣VR頭戴並利用價格優勢取得高市佔率，但此策略在面臨核心業務衰退風險時將難以為繼，而這將有利其他既有VR品牌市占率成長。
3. VR/頭戴裝置產業正迎來新的產業結構變化，包括：
(1) Meta放緩VR硬體投資有利其他既有VR頭戴品牌。
(2) 中國VR產業起步較海外市場慢，但硬體與內容/服務市場目前正快速成長。
(3) Metaverse Standards Forum的成立有助於產業成長。
(4) Apple為頭戴產業的遊戲規則改變者。
4. 目前值得關注的VR/頭戴品牌，包括Sony、微軟、Valve、Pico、宏達電等。
(1) Sony在遊戲/多媒體娛樂產業的影響力高於Meta。PS VR2預計在1Q23發售，2H22供應鏈出貨約150萬部。預期未來有更多AAA遊戲大作支援Sony的PS VR2，將推升VR頭戴在遊戲/多媒體娛樂產業的影響力。
(2) Pico為中國領導VR頭戴品牌，受益於中國龐大潛在需求並快速成長。預期2022年Pico VR頭戴出貨量將成長至少40–50% YoY達100–150萬台。Meta放緩VR硬體投資有助於Pico在非中國市場成長。
(3) 宏達電的VR頭戴出貨預期在2022年出貨成長30–40% YoY或以上，宏達電在非中國市場可望受惠於Meta降低VR硬體投資，與聯想研究院合作亦有助於宏達電VR事業在全球成長，特別是中國市場。
(4) 微軟預計在2H22發佈新款Hololens，Valve目前也正在開發新款頭戴裝置，均對整體產業發展有利。
5. Apple為頭戴裝置的遊戲規則改變者。
(1) Apple雖然反覆對外重申關注的重點是AR，但我相信支援影像式穿透 (video see-thru) 的Apple AR/MR裝置，也能提供極佳的沈浸式體驗。故Apple AR/MR頭戴的面世將進一步推升沈浸式遊戲/多媒體娛樂需求。
(2) Apple AR/MR是Apple有史以來設計最複雜的產品，故許多既有供應商也都在Apple AR/MR供應鏈內。
(3) 受惠於Apple AR/MR頭戴的創新體驗，Apple與Apple供應鏈將在未來2–3年內可能被重新估值 (re-rating) 並有助於股價。
(4) Apple是產業領導者，擁有顯著的競爭優勢，現在無需加入Metaverse Standards Forum。
(5) Apple推出AR/MR頭戴後，我認為Apple的全球競爭對手將爭相模仿，頭戴硬體將進入下一個快速成長階段並有利相關服務與內容的生態發展。
