Samsung Galaxy S24 的裝置端AI關注度已經降溫了嗎？這對裝置端AI趨勢的意涵為何？/ Has the AI-driven hype for Samsung’s Galaxy S24 cooled off? What does this mean for on-device AI trends?

Samsung在半年前推出的Galaxy S24因AI服務新賣點故初期需求優於預期，但現在熱度是否依然如初？

產業現況與調查更新：

1. 雖S24系列發售初期需求優於預期，但出貨動能已自4月開始放緩。
2. Samsung在2024年7月新款款折疊手機 (Z Fold 6 & Z Flip 6) 也將AI作為主要賣點，但預購較去年衰退10%。Samsung摺疊手機今年出貨量約800–900萬部，較去年小幅衰退。
3. 目前預期2025年的S25系列出貨可能與2024年S24持平。

結論：

1. 手機品牌相繼投入AI服務已是大勢所趨。就此趨勢看，必定有特定零組件供應商在此投資趨勢下受益 (無論裝置端AI能否持續推升換機需求)。
2. 目前沒有明確證據顯示，Google/Samsung持續改善裝置端AI服務是否能再度帶動換機潮。
3. 從Android摺疊手機 (Samsung & 中國品牌) 出貨量低於預期快，若摺疊手機使用體驗沒有顯著改善，摺疊手機可能在短期內成長空間有限。
4. 始終有部分市場參與者樂觀期待，手機與PC出貨量因裝置端AI而有戲劇性成長變化。若iPhone 16系列出貨量在2H24發售後無法因Apple Intelligence而優於預期，則上述樂觀預期可能將修正並在短期內造成相關股票的下行風險。

It’s been six months since Samsung launched the Galaxy S24, and its AI-driven features have led to stronger-than-expected initial demand. But is the excitement still there?

Industry status and survey updates:

1. While the S24 series initially exceeded expectations, its shipment momentum has slowed since April.
2. Samsung’s new foldable models, the Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6, also highlight AI as a key feature. However, pre-orders in July 2024 were down 10% YoY. Total shipments of Samsung’s foldable phones this year are estimated to be around 8–9 million units, down slightly from last year.
3. Based on current projections, the S25 series in 2025 could see shipments similar to the S24 in 2024.

Key Takeaways:

1. The trend of smartphone brands adopting AI services is here to stay. Certain component vendors are likely to benefit from this trend, regardless of whether on-device AI continues to drive replacement demand.
2. Currently, there is no clear evidence that Google and Samsung’s ongoing improvements to on-device AI services will trigger another wave of device replacement demand.
3. Lower-than-expected shipments of Android foldable phones (from Samsung and Chinese brands) suggest that growth in this segment may be limited in the near term unless the user experience improves significantly.
4. Some market participants remain optimistic about a dramatic increase in smartphone and PC shipments driven by on-device AI. However, if the iPhone 16 series doesn’t exceed expectations due to Apple Intelligence after its release in 2H24, this optimism could be corrected, leading to possible downside risks for related stocks in the short term.