The losses from Meta’s HMD/metaverse hardware business, due to weak demand, may exceed market consensus/ Meta的頭戴裝置 (元宇宙) 硬體事業因需求疲軟造成的虧損可能高於市場共識
2 min readOct 5, 2023
- My latest survey indicates that shipments of Meta’s HMD (head-mounted display)/metaverse hardware continue to decline significantly, suggesting that continued downsizing of the HMD/metaverse business may be of limited help in mitigating losses.
- The original shipment forecast for Quest 3 in 2H23 was set at over 7 million units. However, due to anticipated weak demand, the current shipment forecast for 2H23 has been cut to between 2–2.5 million units, with shipments in 2024 estimated at around 1 million units.
- Quest series shipments are expected to decline further in 2023, dropping about 50% year-on-year to 3.5 million units. There’s also a possibility of a YoY decrease in shipments for 2024.
- Despite being with improved specs/features, the new Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses are forecast to ship only about 1.5 million units over the entire lifecycle. It’s lower than the initial target of 2 million units for its predecessor, the Ray-Ban Stories Smart Glasses. It’s worth noting that the Ray-Ban Stories Smart Glasses ended up shipping only about 300,000–400,000 units, significantly below expectations. More worryingly, the actual number of active users of Ray-Ban Stories Smart Glasses was less than 50,000.
- Based on the above-mentioned estimated shipments for Meta’s new products, the potential losses for Meta’s HMD/metaverse hardware business may exceed projections and warrant investors’ attention.
- 我的最新調查指出，Meta的頭戴裝置/元宇宙硬體出貨量持續顯著衰退，故縮編頭戴裝置/元宇宙事業對改善虧損幫助有限。
- Quest 3最初的出貨預估為在2H23達到700萬部以上，但因預期需求疲軟，故目前最新的2H23出貨預估為200–250萬部，2024年出貨量則約100萬部。
- Quest的出貨量在2023將進一步顯著衰退約50% YoY至350萬部，2024年出貨量不排除還有YoY衰退可能。
- 新款Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses即便以規格/功能改善作為賣點，但目前整個生命週期出貨預估僅約150萬部，低於前代Ray-Ban Stories Smart Glasses最初出貨目標的200萬部。但值得注意的是，Ray-Ban Stories Smart Glasses的最終出貨量僅約30–40萬部，銷售結果顯著低於預期，而實際活躍使用者甚至更低於5萬。
- 根據上述Meta新產品的出貨規模估算，Meta的頭戴裝置/元宇宙硬體事業的虧損可能高於預期，值得投資人關注。
