Vision Pro首週末預購檢視：符合預期但隱憂浮現 / Vision Pro’s first-weekend pre-order review: expectations in line, but concerns raised

結論：

開放預購即完售，驗證了先前的預測。但預購需求無法持續穩定增加，也驗證了先前的「需求熱度能否持續更為重要」的隱憂。先前預測細節點選這裡與這裡參考。

分析：

1. 根據預購前的備貨水準，以及出貨時間，我預估Apple在開放Vision Pro預購後，首週末賣出16–18萬部 Vision Pro。
2. 與先前預測一致，開放Vision Pro預購即銷售一空，各機型出貨時間在開放預購後的數小時內普遍延長到5–7週。
3. 剛開放預購即售罄，且出貨時間延長到數週，預購看似正向，但卻存在一個關鍵隱憂：開放預購48小時後，出貨時間仍維持不變。這代表在核心粉絲與重度用戶在Vision Pro開放預購並積極下訂單後，需求可能即迅速滑落。
4. 受歡迎的iPhone機型也是每次開放預購即售罄，且出貨時間在數小時內普遍延長到數週。但與Vision Pro不同的是，iPhone在開放預購24至48小時後，出貨時間仍會穩定增加，亦即iPhone新機型在甫開放預購即完售後，訂單需求仍持續增加。
5. 媒體報導供應鏈如組裝廠商立訊預計將在農曆春節加班生產，並以此推論Vision Pro需求優於預期。但事實是，因目前Vision Pro生產效率仍有改善空間，故立訊自開始量產至今，就一直是處於全力加班生產的狀況，以抵銷生產效率對出貨的影響。
6. Vision Pro在今年的出貨量達到50萬部應不難。但在預購銷售一空後需求卻快速下滑，故後續仍須密切觀察其他市場需求與應用更新以判斷需求變化。
7. Apple擁有12億以上的活躍用戶的龐大用戶基礎，只要約0.007%的用戶願意開放在預購後購買，就可讓Vision Pro開放預購後售罄。因此截至目前為止，Vision Pro仍是一個非常利基的產品。

Conclusion:

The immediate sold-out when pre-orders opened confirms earlier predictions. However, the inability to sustain a steady increase in pre-order demand is a major concern and also confirms earlier concerns about whether the intensity of demand can be sustained. Click here and here for details of my previous predictions.

Analysis：

1. Based on pre-order inventory and shipping time, I estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend.
2. As predicted, the Vision Pro sold out immediately after the pre-order opened, with shipping times for all models extending to 5–7 weeks within hours.
3. The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened. It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders.
4. Popular iPhone models also sell out immediately upon pre-order, and shipping times typically increase to several weeks within hours. However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open, indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out.
5. Media reports have suggested that supply chain partners such as assembler Luxshare will work overtime during the Lunar New Year to meet demand, meaning better than expected demand for Vision Pro. However, the reality is that because there is still room for improvement in Vision Pro production efficiency, Luxshare has been working full-time overtime since the start of mass production to offset the impact of production efficiency on shipments.
6. Achieving a shipment volume of 500,000 units for Vision Pro this year should not be challenging. However, because demand tapers off quickly after the initial sold-out, it’s critical to closely monitor demand in other markets and application updates to assess changes in demand.
7. Apple has a massive user base of over 1.2 billion active users. As long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy after pre-ordering, Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order. So, right now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product.