Vision Pro更新：美國市場需求已大幅放緩、全球發佈時程預測、供應鏈擴產與退貨率解讀、新機種預測、投資策略 / Vision Pro Update: US Market Demand Slowing Significantly, Global Release Schedule Forecast, Interpretations for Supply Chain Production Expansion and Return Rates, New Model Prediction, and Investment Strategy
3 min readFeb 28, 2024
美國市場需求已大幅放緩：
- Vision Pro的出貨時間目前已改善到3–5天 (3月初到貨)。
- 1月19日開放預購後的出貨時間即為3月初，意味Vision Pro在開放預購後雖因早期採用者積極購買而銷售一空，但需求隨即快速下滑且至今仍無改善。驗證我先前的預測正確 (更多內容請見「Vision Pro首週末預購檢視：符合預期但隱憂浮現」)。
- 除非Vision Pro降價或有更多吸引人的應用，否則美國市場出貨成長有限。
- 今年美國市場出貨量預估約20–25萬台，雖優於Apple原先預估的15–20萬台，但此規模仍是利基市場。
全球發佈時程預測：
- 因美國市場需求目前成長空間有限，在供應改善下，有利提前全球發售時程，但實際發售時間取決於Apple修改軟體以符合其他國家法規的時程。
- 我目前仍維持Apple可能在今年WWDC前在更多國家發售Vision Pro的預測。
供應鏈擴產：
- 過去一個月內，數家原先產能較小的供應商已擴產，從今年的50–60萬台擴產到70–80萬台。即便如此，此規模仍為利基產品。
- 除了因為美國市場的早期採用者需求優於預期，Apple要求供應商擴產的另一主因為降低全球發售後的出貨時間。
- 需注意產能經常不全然等同出貨量。以iPhone為例，目前每年組裝產能達至2.5–3億部，但實際出貨量顯著較低。
退貨率：
- 根據我對維修/整新產線的調查，目前Vision Pro的退貨率低於1%，此結果並無異常。
- 值得關注的是，在退貨的使用者中，有約20–30%是因為不知如何設定Vision Pro。
新機種預測：
- 市場普遍預期Apple會推出降低規格 (如減少相機數量、移除Eyesight等) 的低價版與規格升級的新機種。但我最新的調查顯示，目前Apple仍未正式開案上述兩種專案。
- 目前Apple正式開案的新款Vision Pro專案，預計在4Q25–1Q26量產，由鴻海取得新產品開發 (NPI；new product introduction)。此新專案聚焦於改善供應鏈生產與管理效率，而非規格變動。此新專案或可降低成本，而就最新規劃看規格變動有限，故目前推測使用者體驗可能不會與現在機型有差異。
- Apple已在收集使用者回饋以規劃Vision Pro產品藍圖。目前預估Vision Pro規格顯著變化的新機種，可能要到2027年才會量產。
投資結論：
- Vision Pro自預購至今，一切均符合先前預期，唯一超預期的就是早期採用者人數較預期多與供應商擴產。但即便如此，依照目前的需求 (2024年出貨預估調升至60–70萬台 vs. 先前的50萬台) 與生產規模，Vision Pro目前仍是利基產品。
- 對Apple與絕大部分的供應商而言，Vision Pro此投資主題目前對股價影響仍非常有限。
- Vision Pro從利基產品成為大眾產品的三個關鍵，分別是應用、售價與頭戴之舒適感。上述三個關鍵的改善/改變為未來的觀察重點。
Demand in the U.S. market has slowed down significantly:
- Vision Pro shipping time has now improved to 3–5 days (early March).
- The shipping time after pre-orders opened on 19 January was in early March, meaning that although Vision Pro sold out after pre-orders opened due to early adopters buying it, demand for the device declined rapidly and has stayed the same. It confirms the conclusion of my previous survey (read more in “Vision Pro’s first-weekend pre-order review: expectations met, but concerns raised”).
- Unless Apple cuts the price of Vision Pro or there are more attractive applications, the shipment growth in the U.S. market may be limited.
- U.S. shipments are expected to be 200,000–250,000 units this year, better than Apple’s original estimate of 150,000–200,000 units, but this is still a niche market.
Global release forecast:
- Due to the limited demand growth in the U.S. market, advancing the global release schedule is favorable when the supply improves. The actual release time will depend on Apple’s software modification schedule to comply with other countries’ regulations.
- I still maintain my prediction that Apple may launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year.
Supply chain production expansion:
- In the past month, several small-capacity suppliers have expanded production from 500,000–600,000 units to 700,000–800,000 units this year. However, this is still a niche product.
- In addition to better-than-expected demand from early adopters in the U.S. market, another key reason for Apple to ask suppliers to expand production is to reduce shipping time after the global launch.
- It is important to note that production capacity usually differs from shipments. For example, the iPhone’s current assembly capacity is 250–300 million units per year, but the actual shipments are much lower.
Return rate:
- According to my survey of the repair/refurbishment production line, the current return rate for Vision Pro is less than 1%, with no anomalies.
- It is worth noting that 20–30% of the returns are due to users not knowing how to set up Vision Pro.
New model prediction:
- The market generally expects Apple to release a lower-priced version with downgraded specs (e.g., reduced number of cameras, removal of EyeSight, etc.) and a new model with upgraded specs. However, my latest survey indicates that Apple has not officially started either project.
- Apple’s new Vision Pro project is expected to go into mass production in 4Q25–1Q26, with Hon Hai receiving the new product introduction (NPI). The new project focuses on improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specs. The new project may reduce costs, and the latest plan shows limited changes to product specs, so it is estimated that the user experience will not differ from the current model.
- Apple is already collecting user feedback for the Vision Pro product roadmap. It is currently estimated that new models with significant changes to the Vision Pro specification may not be in mass production until 2027.
Investment strategy:
- Everything about Vision Pro since pre-order has been in line with previous expectations, with only the higher-than-expected number of early adopters and the production expansion by suppliers exceeding expectations. However, Vision Pro is still a niche product based on current demand and production levels (2024 shipment estimation up to 650,000–700,000 units vs. 500,000 units previously).
- For Apple and most suppliers, the Vision Pro investment theme still has a limited impact on the share price.
- The three critical factors in moving Vision Pro from a niche to a mass-market product are applications, price, and headwear comfort. Improvements/changes in these three critical factors will be important to watch.
