大立光潛望鏡鏡頭良率/獲利顯著提升，為2024年潛望鏡相機顯著成長的主要受益者 / Largan’s periscope lens yield/profitability improves significantly, positioning it as a major beneficiary of the substantial growth of periscope cameras in 2024
2 min readNov 21, 2023
- 市場共識顯著低估大立光2023/4Q23 PES。因iPhone 15 Pro Max的四重反射稜鏡組裝業務良率顯著改善，加上Android高階手機出貨優於預期，故2023年EPS可望達到約150 (vs. 市場共識的130–140)。
- 大立光為iPhone 15 Pro Max的四重反射稜鏡 (潛望鏡) 相機鏡頭獨家供應商，因Apple緊急提高鏡頭規格故在3Q23生產良率僅約40%，導致毛利率為負並拖累3Q23 EPS。然而，我最新調查顯示，大立光目前已將良率顯著改善至70%或以上，故四重反射稜鏡鏡頭組裝業務已開始獲利並將顯著貢獻4Q23 EPS。
- 展望2024年，全球潛望鏡相機手機出貨成長最快的兩個品牌為Apple與華為。
- Apple預期讓iPhone 16 Pro也配備四重反射稜鏡相機，故配備四重反射稜鏡相機的iPhone出貨量將在2024年成長約160% YoY。
- 華為預計在1H24量產的旗艦機型P70、P70 Pro與P70 Art也將配備潛望鏡相機，受益於採用自家麒麟晶片故預期P70出貨量將在2024年成長100% YoY (與2023年的P60系列相較)。
- 大立光為Apple與華為在2024年潛望鏡鏡頭的主要供應商，供應比重分別為85–90%與50–60%。因大立光的Apple訂單之生產良率自4Q23開始已顯著改善並開始貢獻獲利，且2024年整體潛望鏡訂單顯著增長約130%， 故2024年獲利可望超越市場共識。
- Market consensus significantly underestimates Largan’s EPS for 2023/4Q23. Due to significant improvements in the yield of the tetraprism lens assembly for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, combined with higher-than-expected shipments of high-end Android phones. Therefore, it’s expected that 2023 EPS will reach ~150 (vs. market consensus of 130–140).
- Largan is the exclusive supplier of the tetraprism (periscope) camera lens for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. Apple’s urgent spec upgrades led to a production yield of only about 40% in 3Q23, resulting in negative gross margins and dragging down 3Q23 EPS. However, my latest survey indicates that Largan has now improved the yield to 70% or more significantly, making the tetraprism lens assembly profitable and materially accretive to EPS in 4Q23.
- Looking ahead to 2024, the two fastest-growing brands in global periscope camera smartphone shipments are Apple and Huawei.
- Apple is expected to include a tetraprism camera in the iPhone 16 Pro, leading to a 160% YoY growth in iPhones with this camera in 2024.
- Huawei’s flagship P70, P70 Pro and P70 Art, which are expected to start mass shipments in 1H24, will also feature periscope cameras. The P70 series, which benefits from using its own Kirin chips, is expected to see 100% YoY shipment growth in 2024 (compared to the P60 series 2023).
- Largan is the primary supplier of periscope lenses for Apple and Huawei in 2024, with supply shares of 85–90% and 50–60%, respectively. As the yield of Largan’s orders for Apple has significantly improved from 4Q23 and started to contribute to profits, and with a significant 130% increase in total periscope orders for 2024, the profitability in 2024 is expected to exceed market consensus.
