小米手機高庫存對Android供應鏈的警訊 / The high inventory levels of Xiaomi smartphones serve as a warning to the Android supply chain
2 min readFeb 12, 2023
- 在小米的零組件庫存 (約等同2,000–3,000萬部手機) 中，狀況最嚴重的是處理器，供應商為聯發科與Qualcomm。
- 幾乎所有Android品牌均面臨因需求疲弱導致的高庫存風險，不僅是小米。以Samsung為例，該品牌的全球手機庫存 (終端與零組件總和) 預計要到6月才有機會降到合理水位。
- 對有議價力的Android零組件供應商，因為在2020–2022年供應短缺時簽下的供貨合約，可以將庫存轉嫁到品牌與代理商/經銷商。然而，這樣做雖可讓庫存在短期內修正到合理水位，但品牌與代理商/經銷商的高庫存可能會導致未來數個季度對零組件的需求疲弱。
- 因為品牌或代理商/經銷商對零組件的需求疲弱，故即便庫存降到合理水位的零組件，至少在未來6–9個月普遍也會面臨出貨YoY衰退的挑戰，可能不利股價表現。
- 某些零組件供應商因面臨產業結構改變 (如新競爭對手進入導致市占率下滑等)，那麼即便未來需求因經濟復甦而改善，仍面臨中長期成長放緩或衰退的挑戰。
- Xiaomi’s component inventory, equivalent to roughly 20–30 million smartphones, is showing the most severe signs of excess in terms of processors, with MediaTek and Qualcomm as the suppliers.
- Xiaomi and most Android brands are at risk of high inventory levels due to weak demand. For example, Samsung’s global mobile phone inventory, which combines end products and components, may not drop to a reasonable level until June.
- Android component suppliers with strong bargaining power can pass on excess inventory to brands and agents/distributors due to the supply contracts signed during the shortage period from 2020–2022. However, while this may provide a short-term solution to correct inventory levels, the high inventory levels among brands and agents/distributors may result in weak demand for components in the next few quarters.
- Even if component inventory levels drop to a reasonable level, the weak demand for most components from brands or agents/distributors will likely result in a YoY shipment decline over the next 6–9 months at least, which could negatively impact stock prices.
- Some component suppliers are experiencing changes in the industry structure, such as the entry of new competitors leading to a decline in market share. Thus, even if future demand improves due to economic recovery, they still face the challenge of slowing growth or recession in the medium and long term.
