更多關於舜宇光學成為iPhone 14最大廣角鏡頭供應商的分析 — 從Apple、舜宇光學、大立光與玉晶光之角度

郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

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3 min read

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Aug 2, 2022

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Apple

1. iPhone 14系列廣角鏡頭在2H22總產能 (舜宇光學+大立光+玉晶光) 達1.5億顆以上，顯著高於iPhone 14系列需求 (2H22出貨量約9,000萬部)。
2. 這種供過於求的局面就是Apple想看到的。Apple是顯著降低廣角鏡頭供應風險與成本的最大贏家。
3. 在可見未來，Apple將藉由提升舜宇光學份額以降低鏡頭成本。

舜宇光學

1. 舜宇光學在Apple供應鏈佔比顯著提升，可望改善長期客戶組合，並降低經濟景氣循環/季節性對公司的負面影響。
2. 舜宇光學積極擴產後，憑藉成本優勢成為iPhone 14系列廣角7P鏡頭最大供應商。
3. 舜宇光學的Android訂單顯著不如預期，故須積極取得Apple訂單來降低Android事業對營收與利潤的負面影響。
4. 舜宇光學的新款iPhone鏡頭出貨在2H22將顯著成長約1,200% YoY。舜宇光學在2H21僅供應較低階的廣角7P鏡頭 (用於兩隻較低階iPhone 13)，且供應比重僅為8–10%。
5. 若舜宇光學能憑藉價格戰取得iPhone潛望鏡訂單，對Apple與舜宇光學是雙贏。我預測該公司最快在2024年可能取得iPhone潛望鏡的鏡頭訂單。
6. 從iPhone 14系列的廣角鏡頭例子看，可見未來只要舜宇光學取得任何新Apple訂單，應該都是以成為主要供應商為目標。

舜宇光學廣角鏡頭市占顯著提升對大立光與玉晶光的影響之分析

1. 大立光與玉晶光的2H22獲利壓力，來自利潤最好的廣角鏡頭訂單流失與價格戰。
2. 長期而言，在iPhone出貨穩定下，大立光與玉晶光的iPhone事業獲利將因舜宇光學的iPhone訂單成長而放緩。
3. 與玉晶光相較，大立光因良率較高故獲利受到的負面影響較小。
4. 因iPhone鏡頭產值增加且其他訂單成長，大立光與玉晶光的營收仍可維持成長，但關鍵在於其他訂單能否有助於改善毛利率/獲利。

大立光

1. 大立光為長焦鏡頭主要供應商且ASP較高。因長焦鏡頭利潤僅次於高階廣角鏡頭，且長焦鏡頭2H22出貨量因iPhone 14 Pro系列佔比提升而成長，故大立光的長焦鏡頭獲利成長能抵銷廣角鏡頭獲利下降的壓力。
2. 我預估iPhone 14 Pro系列的長焦鏡頭出貨在2H22可成長25–30% YoY (vs. 2H21的iPhone 13 Pro)。

玉晶光

1. 玉晶光的挑戰在於獲利而非營收。
2. 大立光雖廣角鏡頭市占率顯著下降但仍保有高毛利率。相較之下，玉晶光的廣角鏡頭訂單則是ASP與市占率都同時下降。
3. 即便Meta在2H22的新款頭戴Quest 2 Pro的訂單先前已砍50%，但玉晶光的營收仍能明顯受益於高ASP (Pancake+與mini-LED貼合)，但值得注意的是Quest 2 Pro的毛利率顯著低於iPhone訂單。

More analysis on Sunny Optical becoming the first wide lens supplier for iPhone 14 from the perspective of Apple, Sunny Optical, Largan, and Genius

Apple

1. The total production capacity (Sunny Optical + Largan + Genius) of iPhone 14 series wide-camera lens in 2H22 is over 150 million units, significantly higher than the demand for the iPhone 14 series (about 90 million units in 2H22).
2. This oversupply situation is what Apple wants to see. Apple is the biggest winner in significantly reducing wide lens supply risk and cost.
3. In the foreseeable future, Apple will reduce lens costs by increasing Sunny Optical’s market share.

Sunny Optical

1. The significant increase in Sunny Optical’s market share in Apple supply chain can improve the long-term client mix and reduce the negative impact of the overall economic cycle/seasonality on the company.
2. Sunny Optical has become the largest supplier of wide 7P lenses for the iPhone 14 series thanks to its cost advantage after actively expanding production.
3. Sunny Optical’s Android orders were significantly lower than expected, so it is necessary to actively obtain orders from Apple to reduce the negative impact of the Android business on revenue and profit.
4. Sunny Optical’s new iPhone lens shipments will grow significantly by around 1,200% YoY in 2H22. However, Sunny Optical only ships lower-end wide 7P lenses (for two lower-end iPhone 13) in 2H21, and the supply ratio is only 8–10%.
5. If Sunny Optical can obtain iPhone periscope orders by initiating the price war, it will be a win-win for Apple and Sunny Optical. I predict the company could get orders for iPhone’s periscope lenses as soon as 2024.
6. From the example of the wide lens of the iPhone 14 series, as long as Sunny Optical obtains any new Apple orders in the foreseeable future, it should aim to become a major supplier.

Analysis of the impact of the marked increase in market share of Sunny Optical’s wide lenses on Largan and Genius

1. The pressure on Largan and Genius’s 2H22 profit comes from the loss of orders for the most profitable wide lens and the price war.
2. Largan and Genius’s iPhone business profits will g run due to Sunny Optical’s iPhone order growth with stable iPhone shipments.
3. Largan’s profit is less negatively affected due to its higher yield than Genius.
4. Largan and Genius’s revenue can still maintain growth due to the increase in iPhone lens output value and other orders, but whether other orders can help improve gross margin/profit is crucial.

Largan

1. Largan is the main supplier of telephoto lenses with higher ASP. Since telephoto lens profit is second only to the high-end wide lens, and telephoto lens shipments will grow in 2H22 due to the increase in the proportion of the iPhone 14 Pro series, Largan’s telephoto lens profit growth can offset the pressure of wide lens profit decline.
2. I estimate that the shipment of the telephoto lens of iPhone 14 Pro series will increase by 25–30% YoY in 2H22 (vs. iPhone 13 Pro in 2H21).

Genius

1. Genius’s challenge is profit rather than revenue.
2. Although Largan’s wide lens market share has dropped significantly, it still maintains a high gross margin. In contrast, Genius’s wide lens orders will decline in ASP and market share simultaneously.
3. Even though Meta’s new headset Quest 2 Pro orders in 2H22 had previously been cut by 50%, Genius’s revenue can still benefit markedly from high ASP (Pancake and lamination with mini-LED), but it is worth noting that Quest 2 Pro’s gross margin is significantly lower than that of the iPhone orders.